Severe Weather Outlook - Sat 6/27

[venture]

Front will move in later today and overnight. Models indicate that atmosphere will be moderately unstable today with risk for wind and hail storms. SPC has outlined Northern OK (as of this morning) in a slight risk and this could move further south with the front if storms hold together.

Day 1 Outlook


Current Conditions - Mesonet


Visible Sat Image


Current Radar Mosaic


Latest Upper Air Sounding
[/QUOTE]

[Thunder]

Venture, it would be nice if it all come thru during the afternoon, rather than after midnight.

[westsidesooner]

Looks like the front is entering nw Ok and runs from around Medicine Lodge to Harper county to just east of Amarillo. Small stroms going up in the Tx. phdl. are having a tuff time of it. Hope it picks up this aftn. Looking at one of the forecasts it loooks like maybe and mcs moving in from the nw maybe clipping norhtern ok about 180 hrs out. Also a possible tropical depression forming in the western caribbean heading into the gulf....any idea where that might end up V?

We reallly need the rain. Anyone know how to do a raindance? http://drought.unl.edu/DM/pdfs/ok_dm.pdf

[westsidesooner]

New MD out for NW Ok.



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1354
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0223 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE...NWRN OK...SOUTH CENTRAL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 271923Z - 272130Z

SCATTERED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE...NWRN OK
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A WATCH MIGHT BE NEEDED
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...IF PULSE SEVERE STORMS CAN CONSOLIDATE INTO A
COMPLEX OF STORMS WITH A COLD POOL.

AT 19Z...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED ROUGHLY FROM MHK TO SOUTH OF AMA.
CUMULUS CLOUDS AND EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAD RECENTLY
DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT IN THE TX PANHANDLE. DESPITE WEAK FORCING
ALOFT...STRONG HEATING/CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT SHOULD GRADUALLY
INCREASE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER ALOFT IS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL OK...SO DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
WEAK...EXCEPT NORTH OF THE FRONT DUE TO THE NLY BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES AOA 100 DEGREES AND
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREAD OF 30-40 DEGREES ARE RESULTING IN A
DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE SURFACE TO 600 MB. THIS
ENVIRONMENT FAVORS STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP. THE WEAK SHEAR SUGGESTS THE THREAT IS GREATEST
FOR PULSE SEVERE STORMS...THOUGH IF STORM DOWNDRAFTS CAN MERGE INTO
A CLUSTER WITH A COLD POOL...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE
MIGHT BE NEEDED.

[venture]

Here is the watch.



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 528
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
440 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS
PARTS OF NORTH AND WEST OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 440 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
WIDELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF GAGE OKLAHOMA TO 20 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF CHANUTE
KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 525...WW 526...WW 527...

DISCUSSION...WEAK FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHES FROM ERN KS SWWD INTO TX
PANHANDLE. ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT THE AIR MASS IS HOT WITH
CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY PARTICULARLY ERN PORTION OF WATCH. PULSE
TYPE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY VICINITY
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. HIGH BASES WITH DCAPES IN EXCESS OF 1500
J/KG...SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS WITH ANY
STRONG UPDRAFT THAT DEVELOPS. STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW WITH THE
VERY WARM AIRMASS LIMITING THE HAIL SIZE TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 2
INCHES IN MOST INTENSE STORMS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 2705.

[Thunder]

Any hope tonight, Venture?