Oklahoma Weather Discussion - February/March 2013

[venture]

Here is how our rain situation is looking for next weekend. This is going to keep fluctuating, but we can be pretty certain its going to happen at this point. Though the amounts can still vary quite a bit from run to run. Noticing on this run how the bulk of the heavy rain is pushed in to the panhandles. We could see some severe weather on the 11th (when this starts to finish up) in SE OK. Another chance of storms, maybe severe weather across more of the state, coming up the 14th/15th.

[RadicalModerate]

Region 11 Forecast (Texas-Oklahoma) MAR. 2013
1-7 Rain to snow north, showers south; warm, then cold.

I think The Old Farmer's Almanac (by Robert B. Thomas) nailed it.
(or maybe not) (i haven't yet figured out how to use the tide tables =)

So far they have missed it by a mile . . . and the rest of the week doesn't look so good either.

[bucktalk]

Is there any way to tell if the weather pattern has shifted enough to predict possible spring/summer rains?

[venture]

Is there any way to tell if the weather pattern has shifted enough to predict possible spring/summer rains?

A lot of that is going to go off of climatology, but here are some details on what the long range outlooks are showing:

National Weather Service Climate

Climate Prediction Center - Seasonal Color Maps

Right now showing Below Average Precip and Above Average Temps.

[venture]

18Z tried to push a lot of the moisture south, but 00Z snapped back a little.

[venture]

12Z GFS morning update...

On Monday morning the last remaining precip will start to move out. Chance this could include/change to freezing rain before ending. Some light snow in the TX Panhandle on Sunday...1-3".

[MonkeesFan]

I am loving the weather today! I am excited for Spring to come soon! Good riddance Winter!

[venture]

I normally don't pay much attention to midday model runs this far out...but 18Z GFS had a noticeable change to it. I think it is pretty apparent.

[Easy180]

Throw that model in the trash

[BG918]

Curious why you typically post the GFS and not the NAM or European models. I've found the European models to be just as accurate as the GFS long-range. That being said models are still very wrong even several days out. Hopefully that improves in the future with more weather-related research..

[venture]

Curious why you typically post the GFS and not the NAM or European models. I've found the European models to be just as accurate as the GFS long-range. That being said models are still very wrong even several days out. Hopefully that improves in the future with more weather-related research..

NAM only goes out 84 hours and ECMWF is pretty restricted down as far was what products can be linked to the public. UKMET also isn't going to out far enough...at least with the products that can be linked here. So GFS gets it by default since it is readily available and goes out around 2 weeks.

[venture]

Looks like GFS is latching on to the new solution. We'll see if this keeps up. Main storm system doesn't come on shore into the Pac NW until late Tuesday/Early Wednesday. So we aren't going to get any quality upper air readings until after that takes place. Then we need to let the models play with the data to see what they kick out.

Right now most of the precip is being limited to the 9th now and rough a half inch or less over the state. The heavier precip is taken up through NE/IA/MO. Again we'll see what happens, but the needed rainfall seems to be vanishing quick. One thing to always keep in mind, droughts are tough to break once established.

Now one thing to note with the setup next weekend. The main storm system seems to get cut off and dives south into Northern Mexico. So the precip on the 9th is just with the first wave of energy from this system. I would imagine that since the main system isn't coming through at the same time is why the precip amounts are plummeting. Main storm will swing out March 12, but track pretty far south through Texas. So heaviest rain will stay down there but some light rain (less than a quarter inch) over Central and Eastern OK that evening seems probable.

Next system swings out around the 15th. The main low will be in Manitoba, but the trough extends all the way south glancing OK. A lot of energy projected with it but not a lot of rain. Could be a good MS valley severe weather setup.

Things get pretty zonal after that so not much in the way of any activity near us. However, that'll all change with the runs tomorrow...and the ones after that...and the...you get the idea.

[PennyQuilts]

Storm spotting training seminars, both on and offline in Oklahoma this month. 2013 Storm Spotter Training - NWS Norman

Thanks, Bunty.

[venture]

Rainfall amounts are up a bit due to a squall line that is expected now, that could have some marginal severe weather with it. Looks like ~1" east of I-35, around a half inch west of I-35 (some higher spots). Time frame looks to be pretty constrained to Saturday evening into Sunday moring now for Central OK.

[kelroy55]

I am loving the weather today! I am excited for Spring to come soon! Good riddance Winter!

We had a winter?

[Of Sound Mind]

We had a winter?

You've already forgotten last month's OKC blizzard?

[kelroy55]

You've already forgotten last month's OKC blizzard?

I'm keeping my snow shovel by the door just in case we have another one.

[jn1780]

I'm keeping my snow shovel by the door just in case we have another one.

You mean umbrella right? lol

[Bunty]

Curious why you typically post the GFS and not the NAM or European models. I've found the European models to be just as accurate as the GFS long-range. That being said models are still very wrong even several days out. Hopefully that improves in the future with more weather-related research..

yr.no has Oklahoma City getting .9" for this weekend.

[ou48A]

After over 30 years of occasional watching nobody on TV delivers a weather presentation / forecast IMHO as good as Chicago’s WGN chief meteorologist Tom Skilling.

I wish our local OKC TV meteorologist used the same type of graphics.

[kevinpate]

We had a winter?

Of course we did. Why, some days I put on a hat and a sleeveless vest both! Brrrrrr, a bad one it were.

[okcboomer]

Heard mike Morgan yesterday say there was an arctic blast coming in 8 to 10 days.

[venture]

Heard mike Morgan yesterday say there was an arctic blast coming in 8 to 10 days.

It showed up once on yesterday's 12Z GFS run, but was gone on the 18Z, 00Z, and the latest 06Z run. Mister hype monster needs to relax and let things develop for a couple days before raising any red flags.

[Anonymous.]

Still looking like a quick moving line of storms Saturday. Hopefully they dump a lot of rain.

[venture]

NAM isn't liking storm chances for Saturday, breaking up most precip before reaching Central OK. GFS keeps chances in place, but overall pretty low on the amounts side - generally a quarter inch or less now.