Oklahoma Weather Discussion - January 2013

[venture]

Another year of weather posts coming up. 2012 was definitely an interesting year weather wise, and the review is just below. I'm going to just tag this for the month of January for right now, even though we tend to bundle it with February. However, we'll see how things play out as it only takes one potential event to add about 12 pages to this thread. LOL

NWS Norman Weather Summary - 2012 Significant Weather Events Summary

• There were 28 daily/monthly temperature records at Oklahoma City, and 26 at Wichita Falls (through Dec. 28th).
• There were 4 daily/monthly precipitation records at Oklahoma City, and 4 at Wichita Falls (through Dec. 28th).
• Oklahoma City tied its all-time record high of 113°F on August 3. The daily high on August 3 at Will Rogers Airport had been preceeded by daily highs of 112°F on August 1 & 2, making it the first time that max daily temperatures of 112°F or greater had been recorded for OKC for 3 consecutive days.
• Oklahoma City set a new all-time record warm low of 84°F on August 3.
• Temperatures at Oklahoma City (through November) were above average every month of the year except for October.
• The preliminary 2012 tornado count for Oklahoma was 62. For western north Texas, a rain-wrapped tornado near Truscott on May 30 was the only recorded for the year.
• The most active tornado month for Oklahoma was April, with a preliminary count of 52 tornadoes. This set a new record for the most April tornadoes in the state for any particular from 1950 through the present year.
• No Oklahoma tornadoes were recorded in June. May, historically the most active month, saw only 4 tornado reports, which tied it for third for the least total of tornadoes for the month of May since offical records began in 1950.
• The highest-rated tornado in our area was an EF-3 that struck Woodward on the late evening of April 14 and early morning of April 15. The Woodward tornado killed 6 people and injured another 29 people, and was the only killer tornado in Oklahoma in 2012.
• The period from May through November of 2012 was the driest May-Nov. for the state of Oklahoma according to the Oklahoma Mesonet.

This initial post will contain information, images, and links that can be used at any time. Images posted later through the thread may or may not be accurate on the day you are viewing them (check the post comments). Information contained in this thread should not be used as an alternative to weather radios, media, or other means of getting weather warnings/advisories.

Current Conditions

Norman Warning Area Map Tulsa County Warning Area Map Tornado Warning | Tornado Watch | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | Severe Thunderstorm Watch Red Flag Warning | Fire Warning | Severe Weather Statement | Special Weather Statement Hazardous Weather Outlook | Fire Weather Watch Other Color Meanings: Web-Based Watch/Warning/Advisory Map Colors - NOAA's National Weather Service

Oklahoma Mesonet Current Conditions Red - Air Temp, Green - Dewpoint, Barbs - Wind Speed/Direction, Gray - Gusts, Blue - Precip since Midnight

Severe Weather Information

Current Watches	Current Mesoscale Discussions (MCD)

Snowfall Images

24 Hour Snowfall Totals

6 Hour Snowfall Forecasts

6 Hr	12 Hr	18 Hr	24 Hr	30 Hr	36 Hr	42 Hr	48 Hr

Fire Weather Images

Oklahoma Mesonet 24-inch Fractional Weather Index Image Image will appear blank overnight.

Oklahoma Mesonet Relative Humidity Image Enhanced Colors - Blues are higher/colder cloud tops, Reds are warmer normally clear skies.

Oklahoma Mesonet -Burn Index Image Image will appear blank overnight.

Oklahoma Mesonet Consecutive Days with Less Than 0.25" of Rain Image Enhanced Colors - Blues are higher/colder cloud tops, Reds are warmer normally clear skies.

SPC Fire Weather Outlooks
*Click any above graphic to view discussion.*

Day 1	Day 2	Days 3 to 8

References

• COD Weather Analysis Page: COD Meteorology -- Surface and Upper Air Data
• NWS Norman Page: NWS
• Storm Prediction Center: Storm Prediction Center
• Oklahoma Mesonet: Mesonet | Home Page
• West Texas Mesonet: Texas Tech University : West Texas Mesonet
• Oklahoma Fire Weather: NWS Norman Fire Weather Forecasts
• Oklahoma Road Conditions: Road Conditions
• Severe Weather Values Reference Guide: The Southern Indiana Weather Spotter's Reference -or- SEVERE WEATHER INDICES PAGE
• TwisterData Model Page: TwisterData.com | Weather Data & Model Forecasts
• Earl Barker's Central US Model Page: Earl Barker's CENTRAL US Model Page
• NSSL WRF Model: NSSL Realtime WRF model Forecasts
• NSSL 4KM WRF Model Forecast Soundings: NSSL 4km WRF Forecast Soundings
• HRRR Rapid Refresh Model: HRRR Model Fields - Experimental

Tutorial: HOW TO VIEW DATA IN HRRR

Step 1) Go the main page: High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR)
Step 2) Click on 3km HRRR-CONUS hourly
Step 3) Under Domain select SC for South Central US
Step 4) Look at the time frames available. Usually if it isn't through Hour 06 yet, I'll just go up to Date and select the previous time.
Step 5) Depending on what you want to see you can click on the specific time or to loop all the times available you'll see a Check Mark under loop. You can click that to loop them all.

State Radar Images

WSR-88D Twin Lakes Base Reflectivity 0.5 deg tilt	WSR-88D Frederick Base Reflectivity 0.5 deg tilt
WSR-88D Vance AFB Base Reflectivity 0.5 deg tilt

​State Satellite Images

Oklahoma Mesonet Visible Satellite Image Image will appear blank overnight.

Oklahoma Mesonet IR Satellite Image Enhanced Colors - Blues are higher/colder cloud tops, Reds are warmer normally clear skies.

[ksearls]

This is awesome. Thank you for feeding my weather freakiness.

[venture]

So the weather doesn't look to eventful coming up, but this is what we have.

Tomorrow/Saturday - Weak system moving through Texas bringing light snow/rain over south of the Red. Maybe some light rain/snow mix over NE OK Sat morning.

Next bigger storm system is on Tuesday. This originally showed some good heavy rain for OK, but yeah that's gone. Look for light to moderate snow accumulations over far NW OK and some decent rain over far southern and SE OK. Maybe a sprinkle here. Snow accumulations to the NW look like 3-5" right now in some spots.

And that's pretty much it for precip chances, as of right now, through the 19th. Exciting stuff I know!

No real warm days coming either, things are just going to stay about like this (maybe a bit warmer into the mid/upper 40s). Could be worse I guess.

[venture]

For those looking for any of the upcoming Spotter Training classes, NWS Norman has put the schedule out: NWS Norman Spotter Schedule

These are just for the live, in person training events. Most of the training though is now available online for those that can't make it.

[Tydude]

the 1st online class is February 26th at 6:30 PM Central time

[venture]

Looks like some light snow moving through overnight and tomorrow morning. Shouldn't be anything major at all as none of the models are spitting out any ground accumulation.

[OKCisOK4me]

Yeah, ol' Aaron Tuttle on his Facebook page was hinting at this last night saying that the metro area could see half an inch to 2 inches but probably a majority would see half an inch at the most.

[Bunty]

The Norwegian Meteorological Institute, which provides online weather forecasts for most cities and towns in the world says OKC will have a bit over an inch of rain this Wednesday with temps in the mid 40s. As I recall from following in the past, they're not real accurate. You can get their forecasts at yr.no. But have to put up with metric only measurements used there.

[venture]

Quick update from the 00Z GFS tonight.

6AM Weds through Midnight Friday morning - Looks like some areas could see a decent amount of precip. This feature has been present for at least 8 runs now, but there are variations in strength and placement. We are looking at 100% rain right now. Best chance will be over Eastern 1/2 of Oklahoma. Amounts could approach an inch in several spots, maybe more in isolated areas.

Next chance would be around Monday the 14th. Right now the storm placement is east of us, over mostly SE OK. This would be a mostly snow system. A very large arctic outbreak looks like is on tap for this time frame. Could see a very good accumulating snow over SE OK all the way up to the Lower Great Lakes.

Finally another system moves through around Sunday the 20th. This would be mostly snow as well. Best chance of precip is over Eastern OK up through the Great Lakes.

As with anything, we just have to monitor the trends with these forecasts and see what happens.

[Bunty]

The amount of rain yr.no has predicted of OKC has fallen under an inch.

[OKCisOK4me]

Aaron Tuttle is calling for a gully washer...

[venture]

Aaron Tuttle is calling for a gully washer...

People still listen to him? :-P

[venture]

Couple thoughts on the upcoming weather..."events".

Have some rain coming up this week. Yawn. Not looking like a drought buster at all, but I guess it can always change. Half to one inch of rain in the Western 1/3rd of the state. Then an area of less than a half inch of rain mainly along and north of I-44 (and east of US 281), including most of the metro area. Then south and east of I-44 looks like 1-2 inches of rain and maybe some isolated higher amount the further SE you go.

Next system is for Sunday. Looks like this will be mainly snow, if the 00Z GFS is right. It isn't completely consistent with the placement and even having snow. Here is how they break down run by run...and this is all total accumulation by midday Sunday.

06Z Sat - 1-4" Western OK
12Z Sat - No snow.
18Z Sat - <1" SE OK, highest snow band over Central AR (3-6")
00Z Sun - 2-4" SE OK, main snow band W and C AR through SE OK into NE TX.
06Z Sun - 2-5" Central and Eastern OK, two main snow bands one TUL to LAW, other over SE OK.
12Z Sun - 1-2" over Central AR, no other snow areas.
18Z Sun - No snow.
00Z Mon - Snow along and SE of I-44, generally 2-5" with areas of up to 6" in South Central OK and also in Northern AR.

We'll see what happens. Things are bouncing around a lot as you can tell, so no one can say either way what will happen.

[OKCisOK4me]

People still listen to him? :-P

His sense of humor is what drove me to 'like' him on Facebook, lol.

[venture]

Before anyone brings it up, Damon Lane made a comment on KOCO's blog yesterday about some major cold snap in two weeks. What he didn't really point out, is that it was a run from Jan 4th (a few days old) and that major cold snap is no where to be found.

So don't worry much. At this rate he is bound to follow Aaron Tuttle as a "Facebook Forecaster".

[damonsmuz]

11

[Uncle Slayton]

Before anyone brings it up, Damon Lane made a comment on KOCO's blog yesterday about some major cold snap in two weeks. What he didn't really point out, is that it was a run from Jan 4th (a few days old) and that major cold snap is no where to be found.

So don't worry much. At this rate he is bound to follow Aaron Tuttle as a "Facebook Forecaster".

Dammit. AccuJackWeather has been talking about a "cold dam" for several days, supposedly as a result of sudden stratospheric warming. They have the jet firmly anchored in CenTex by week 3 of January with reinforcing cold waves behind it.

Can we just one time have an apocalyptic weather forecast that stands up to scrutiny and wreaks untold havoc?

[venture]

Dammit. AccuJackWeather has been talking about a "cold dam" for several days, supposedly as a result of sudden stratospheric warming. They have the jet firmly anchored in CenTex by week 3 of January with reinforcing cold waves behind it.

Can we just one time have an apocalyptic weather forecast that stands up to scrutiny and wreaks untold havoc?

In about 12 hours a burning ball of fire and gas that will eventually engulf the planet will appear to all humanity.

How's that?

[Plutonic Panda]

In about 12 hours a burning ball of fire and gas that will eventually engulf the planet will appear to all humanity.

How's that?

Whoa. I was thinking something like a 3 week long, 100ft. blizzard with 350mph winds and a few snow tornados here and there. But I like your style!!!!! lol

Oh, and of course -85º temperatures in the fahrenheit variety

[Uncle Slayton]

In about 12 hours a burning ball of fire and gas that will eventually engulf the planet will appear to all humanity.

How's that?

Michael Moore get the pu pu platter again?

If I got a choice, I'd prefer a frozen apocalypse, but, to paraphrase Ron White, "hit somethin hard, I don't wanna limp away from this apocalypse."

[venture]

Hey...what I said was true. Just that eventually is about 4 billion years down the road when our star turns into a Red Giant.

[Plutonic Panda]

Hey...what I said was true. Just that eventually is about 4 billion years down the road when our star turns into a Red Giant.

Unless we are hit by a quasar in the mean time.=)

[Bill Robertson]

Dammit. AccuJackWeather has been talking about a "cold dam" for several days, supposedly as a result of sudden stratospheric warming. They have the jet firmly anchored in CenTex by week 3 of January with reinforcing cold waves behind it.

Can we just one time have an apocalyptic weather forecast that stands up to scrutiny and wreaks untold havoc?

I'm very happy with the way things are going now.

[Bunty]

Before anyone brings it up, Damon Lane made a comment on KOCO's blog yesterday about some major cold snap in two weeks. What he didn't really point out, is that it was a run from Jan 4th (a few days old) and that major cold snap is no where to be found.

So don't worry much. At this rate he is bound to follow Aaron Tuttle as a "Facebook Forecaster".

I don't see your point since the GFS model he's going by is dated Jan.12 to Jan. 17:

[OKCisOK4me]

Uh, that's dated the 4th thru the 17th so half of it is wrong, lol.