Oklahoma Weather Discussion - February/March 2013

[kelroy55]

Hopefully Texas sucks so it comes further south lol

[Dustin]

please please oh please weather gods bring us a bunch of snow.

No

[venture]

Precip is now entering the main body of Oklahoma in the form of light rain over SW/WC OK.

Short term HRRR guidance...

Between now and 9PM precip will slowly continues to increase over Western OK. NW OK will experience some Freezing Rain for a few hours tonight before changing completely over to snow. By 10PM accumulating snow should start to fall in areas of NW OK. Extremely heavy snow will fall through 5AM (the end of its current forecast window) over areas west of a line from Hollis to Arapaho to Fairview to Alva. Snowfall amounts HRRR is predicting are pretty crazy. Band of 12" plus from near Buffalo back to the SW into the TX panhandle to just NE of AMA. East of that line looking at a decent 6-10" snowfall and then tapers off extremely quickly as it changes back to rain.

The liquid side of this storm has rain/storms forming all along the OK/TX PH border into NW Texas. Widespread rain will cover many areas west of I-35 by Midnight. Line of storms will arch out and move past Central OK by 5AM where we'll be dryslotted.

[zookeeper]

Precip is now entering the main body of Oklahoma in the form of light rain over SW/WC OK.

Short term HRRR guidance...

Between now and 9PM precip will slowly continues to increase over Western OK. NW OK will experience some Freezing Rain for a few hours tonight before changing completely over to snow. By 10PM accumulating snow should start to fall in areas of NW OK. Extremely heavy snow will fall through 5AM (the end of its current forecast window) over areas west of a line from Hollis to Arapaho to Fairview to Alva. Snowfall amounts HRRR is predicting are pretty crazy. Band of 12" plus from near Buffalo back to the SW into the TX panhandle to just NE of AMA. East of that line looking at a decent 6-10" snowfall and then tapers off extremely quickly as it changes back to rain.

The liquid side of this storm has rain/storms forming all along the OK/TX PH border into NW Texas. Widespread rain will cover many areas west of I-35 by Midnight. Line of storms will arch out and move past Central OK by 5AM where we'll be dryslotted.

Thanks for your work Venture. Does what I bolded above mean NO snow for Oklahoma City?

Hopefully Texas sucks so it comes further south lol

please please oh please weather gods bring us a bunch of snow.

I want lots of snow but want it to go away after I'm done playing lol

well crap.... I want snow and lots of it

Is there any possible way that this thread could be left open for serious weather information and Q&A? Please? This is a life-threatening storm for many in our state. Thaanks.

[venture]

Thanks for your work Venture. Does what I bolded above mean NO snow for Oklahoma City?

I'll answer this in two parts.

1) The NAM and GFS forecast models have been hard pressed for the last 2-3 days to have any substantial accumulating snow in Oklahoma City and the surrounding metro area. Well...outside of Kingfisher County and far outreaches of the actual Metro Area. Substantial to me is anything 5" or more. Anything less won't last long.

2) Does the dryslotting mean no snow? Not entirely. What we are looking at them is a massive shield of wrap around precip. It comes down to how far South and East it moves before the storm system makes the turn to head NE. If this storm digs south of the Red River more and stays on a mostly easterly course into Arkansas, that will drag this shield over us. If it starts to turn NE over Eastern Oklahoma - enjoy the free day off kids for rain.

[ZYX2]

Unfortunately (in my opinion) the models are staying firm in their track through NW Oklahoma and then on into Kansas, thus skipping the OKC and Tulsa metros for any real significant snows. Although we need the moisture. I REALLY HATE cold rain.

Maybe the system will be nice to us and stay south.

[Easy180]

So is it pretty safe to say us in the metro have a zero percent chance of being stranded at work similar to the '09 blizzard?

[venture]

Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for SW OK - Tillman and Cotton counties. This blends things out a bit better with the other advisories.

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY NIGHT...


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY NIGHT.


* TIMING: RAIN LATE THIS EVENING WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA. SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST.


* MAIN IMPACT: ACCUMULATIONS OF A TRACE TO 4 INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WINDS GUSTING FROM 35 TO NEAR 50 MPH THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.


* OTHER IMPACTS: EXCESSIVE WINDS COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW...RESULTING IN TREACHEROUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

[venture]

So is it pretty safe to say us in the metro have a zero percent chance of being stranded at work similar to the '09 blizzard?

I'll never say zero.

[venture]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0211
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0720 PM CST SUN FEB 24 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM...TX AND OK PANHANDLES...EXTREME SWRN KS

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 250120Z - 250715Z

SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS FROM NORTHEAST NM INTO THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES. SNOW RATES
COULD EXCEED ONE INCH PER HOUR WITHIN HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS.

DISCUSSION...INTENSE HEIGHT FALLS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF POWERFUL SRN ROCKIES UPPER LOW. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS WITH RAPID MID LEVEL CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS NEAR THE LEE TROUGH
WITHING VERY STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. FARTHER
NORTH...CONVECTION IS DEEPENING/EXPANDING NORTH OF POLAR SURGE WHERE
SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOWER 30S JUST NORTH OF THE
WIND SHIFT.

00Z SOUNDING FROM AMA EXHIBITS VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY CERTAINLY SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION ROOTED
ABOVE 700MB. LATEST LIGHTNING DATA SUPPORTS THIS EVOLUTION WITH
TSTMS NOW INCREASING ACROSS THE SERN TX PANHANDLE AND MORE ISOLATED
ACTIVITY DEEPER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT INTO NERN NM. GIVEN THE LARGE
SCALE FORCING AND STRENGTHENING UPSLOPE FLOW INTO NERN NM...VERY
HEAVY SNOW...LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHTNING...WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE CANADIAN ESCARPMENT INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. ICE PELLETS MAY
INITIALLY MIX ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO NWRN OK BEFORE THE
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AROUND 06Z.

..DARROW.. 02/25/2013

[PennyQuilts]

Dry slot is simply an area of dry air that gets pulled into the system, usually from the Southwest, and cuts off precip mostly. In winter storms this tends to end the accumulating precip but can lead to freezing drizzle in many cases.

Thank you - and thanks for all your work on these threads. I turn to you when I really need to know what is actually likely to happen.

[Uncle Slayton]

The continuing uncertainty in the forecast is maddening. Am I going to drive home in a blizzard from downtown to Norman tomorrow at 5, or is it rain, or is it nothing? It's almost inconceivable that with the resources available to NWS that nothing concrete is forthcoming less than 24 hours out.

I guess the storms are like asteroids, they miss them til they're almost on top of us, then say "we hope it won't hit us..."

[venture]

Tossed the HPC frontal positions on the "live" radar image from my website.

[venture]

The continuing uncertainty in the forecast is maddening. Am I going to drive home in a blizzard from downtown to Norman tomorrow at 5, or is it rain, or is it nothing? It's almost inconceivable that with the resources available to NWS that nothing concrete is forthcoming less than 24 hours out.

I guess the storms are like asteroids, they miss them til they're almost on top of us, then say "we hope it won't hit us..."

There is only so much models can predict with in a certain margin of error. I won't be shocked to see Blizzard Conditions in the metro area tomorrow, but that doesn't mean large snowfall accumulations.

Side note, the showers/storms in SW OK has been producing wind gusts from 45 to 51 mph over the last 10 minutes. Winds are already starting to pick up over much of Western OK. Panhandle is all 20-30 mph northerly wins right now. Very tight temp gradient out there right now as well.

[venture]

Storms producing severe winds are now warned...

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
818 PM CST SUN FEB 24 2013
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN BECKHAM COUNTY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA...
NORTHEASTERN GREER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
NORTHWESTERN KIOWA COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHWESTERN WA****A COUNTY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA...
* UNTIL 900 PM CST
* AT 817 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 65 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LONE WOLF...MOVING EAST AT
35 MPH. AT 810 PM...THE MESONET LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GREER
REPORTED A 65 MPH GUST.

[venture]

New NAM has Central OK's main shot at accumulating precip ending completely by 3PM tomorrow. There may still be some snow accumulation, but it'll be a quick shot before the dry air works in. Lingering snow showers/flurries the rest of the night seem likely.

I know NAM has been discounted a lot, but its been pretty damn consistent. I think the main story we are going to see out of this might just be the wind for us. Heavy snow NW is a given and its real estate keeps shrinking.

[venture]

For comparison here is the HRRR run through 10AM

[jn1780]

Storms producing severe winds are now warned...

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
818 PM CST SUN FEB 24 2013
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN BECKHAM COUNTY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA...
NORTHEASTERN GREER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
NORTHWESTERN KIOWA COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHWESTERN WA****A COUNTY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA...
* UNTIL 900 PM CST
* AT 817 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 65 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LONE WOLF...MOVING EAST AT
35 MPH. AT 810 PM...THE MESONET LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GREER
REPORTED A 65 MPH GUST.

Funny seeing a severe thunderstorm warning inside a big blizzard warning box.

[SomeGuy]

I think we're going to get snowed upon around 12pm, News9 said we would be getting 4-8 inches hopefully

[ZYX2]

I think we're going to get snowed upon around 12pm, News9 said we would be getting 4-8 inches hopefully

Their totals seem a little generous (as in too much too far S and E) to me, but you can still see the tight snow gradient there will be with this storm.

However, I hope their forecast is wrong, and we actually get more snow.

[venture]

They keep roaring.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
841 PM CST SUN FEB 24 2013


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN CADDO COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
NORTHWESTERN COMANCHE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
EASTERN GREER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
KIOWA COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHERN WA****A COUNTY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA...


* UNTIL 930 PM CST


* AT 839 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES
NORTHWEST OF COOPERTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.


THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING 70 MPH NEAR HOBART AND
SOUTHEAST OF MAGNUM WITH THE GUST FRONT WELL AHEAD OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

[venture]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0212
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 PM CST SUN FEB 24 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE/TX LOW ROLLING PLAINS
AND SOUTHWEST OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 250152Z - 250345Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE/SOUTHWEST OK AND THE TX
LOW ROLLING PLAINS. SOME HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
TSTMS...ALTHOUGH A WATCH IS UNLIKELY TO BE NEEDED GIVEN THE
ANTICIPATED MARGINALITY.

DISCUSSION...UPPER JET EXIT REGION WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
OK/NORTH TX THIS EVENING IN TANDEM WITH AN EASTWARD-SHIFTING UPPER
TROUGH OVER NM. INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL AID AN
INCREASE/EXPANSION OF TSTMS WILL THIS EVENING...SUCH AS ONGOING
TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE/SOUTHWEST OK IN VICINITY OF
WEST/SOUTHWEST-EAST/NORTHEASTWARD EXTENDING LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED A BIT LATER THIS EVENING
/THROUGH 03Z-05Z/ FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS ADDITIONAL PARTS OF THE TX
LOW ROLLING PLAINS AS THE FRONT CONTINUES EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. WHILE
TOTAL BUOYANCY IS RATHER MARGINAL WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE IN THE PRESENCE OF ONLY LOWER 40S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS...A STEEP
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT AS PER 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM AMARILLO
TX/NORMAN OK COULD YIELD SOME STRONGER UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF MAINLY
SUB-SEVERE HAIL IN THE PRESENCE OF VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR.

..GUYER/MEAD.. 02/25/2013

[kelroy55]

Thanks for your work Venture. Does what I bolded above mean NO snow for Oklahoma City?









Is there any possible way that this thread could be left open for serious weather information and Q&A? Please? This is a life-threatening storm for many in our state. Thaanks.

Sorry, I didn't mean to rain, err snow, on your parade.

[Anonymous.]

Waiting on the new model runs in about an hour, but looking @ the water vapor and radar imagery over NM, the storm is sagging south and east still, has not started it's NE march.

The temperature change in W OK is 30F in about 4 hours. Pretty amazing. went from windy and 65 degrees to lower 30s and 30mph gusts. That cold air blowing in off the snowpack is frigid! This cold air will keep spilling in from the north and be spun east and mixing with all the warm moist air overriding with these thundershowers and rain. Dramatic cooling is always fun to watch.

[venture]

GFS and NAM are in pretty much decent agreement at this point. New 00Z GFS also keeps OKC all rain until after 3PM. It keeps some precip in the area, but nothing more than a couple inches of snow it appears. If this all verifies I see a good chunk of he warnings dropped to just advisories for blowing snow.