Oklahoma Weather Discussion - February/March 2013

[ZYX2]

Mike Collier, the meteorologist I referred to last night, is predicting 2-6" for the Tulsa area tomorrow evening through Tuesday morning.

[Easy180]

Thanks to Venture and the others for once again giving us the best info possible without all the hype of the news stations. I'm going to gas up the jeep today in hopes of a bunch of snow

The hype is why I also like to look at the national sites since they aren't necessarily pushing for ratings...But I do pay way more attention to our weather advisors on here

[Easy180]

Looks like Norman is preparing to revise snowfall amounts downward...Yay

NOAA
weather.gov
National Weather Service National Headquarters

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1052 AM CST SUN FEB 24 2013

.UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST THIS MORNING. 12Z MODEL
SUITE INDICATING WINTER STORM ON TRACK WITH PREVIOUS RUNS. VERY
HIGH MODEL DERIVED SNOW TOTALS OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...STILL
APPEAR TO BE OVERDONE...AS WELL AS SOME OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
FRINGE AMOUNTS WHERE SIGNIFICANT MELTING ISSUES WILL TAKE AWAY
FROM ACCUM POTENTIAL. WILL LIKELY TWEAK SNOW AMOUNT FORECAST FOR
AFTERNOON PACKAGE BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE /IF ANY/ TO
HEADLINES. IN ADDITION TO WARNINGS THAT WE HAVE GOING... THERE
WILL LIKELY BE WIND ADVISORY AND/OR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST LATE TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 56 36 36 30 / 10 80 90 60
HOBART OK 56 33 36 25 / 10 70 80 30
WICHITA FALLS TX 67 38 39 31 / 10 60 60 30
GAGE OK 47 26 32 23 / 30 100 90 20
PONCA CITY OK 48 34 35 29 / 10 90 90 70
DURANT OK 65 41 48 32 / 10 50 70 40

[venture]

Don't read much into that for nw ok, they haven't gone with some of the crazy high numbers up there. Models for around here have never gone above an inch or two, so they are probably going to pull back on the numbers they came up with since model guidance never caught on.

[Uncle Slayton]

Don't read much into that for nw ok, they haven't gone with some of the crazy high numbers up there. Models for around here have never gone above an inch or two, so they are probably going to pull back on the numbers they came up with since model guidance never caught on.

Translation: No work/school cancelling snow event, bidness as usual?

[kelroy55]

Translation: No work/school cancelling snow event, bidness as usual?

well crap.... I want snow and lots of it

[Uncle Slayton]

well crap.... I want snow and lots of it

It was a question for V, I'm not quite ready to call it off just yet, just starting to get that old familiar feeling.

[Anonymous.]

Here we go, moisture is here. Snowing in CO now.

Models are in really good agreement, I can see why all the forecasts are pretty similar right now.

Keep in mind, any slight shifting south in the track, basically turns OKC from a trace to no accumulation, to upwards of 8+. This is yet again another tedious forecast for C OK. My gut wants to say OKC gets dry-slotted when it comes to the snow, and we see cold rain and some wet snow showers - but part of me is banking on a last minute shifting south. I have noticed with the last couple of systems, the models run the storm NNE too soon. The low anchors down and turns almost due east for a little longer as it ejects. If this type of scenario happens, it moves OKC and even Tulsa into the mix.

I still think the system is calling for too warm of temperatures, the strong NNW winds coming through with the intense wrap around is going to be bringing frigid air directly off of an existing snowpack. I have a feeling some of this air will infiltrate into the system earlier than anticipated. However, this does not exclude the possibility of the dry slot eroding a massive precip. hole directly over SW,S, and C OK.

[ZYX2]

I agree Anonymous. I could see the storm shifting but I just have a feeling (nothing scientific) that it won't.

[ShiroiHikari]

I also have a feeling that nothing much will happen in Central OK. It seems like every time they try to warn us in advance, nothing happens. Then when they give the "all clear", we get a bunch of snow.

I still did a grocery run yesterday just in case. :P

[kevinpate]

well crap.... I want snow and lots of it

My daughter and her family can help you find a place in Cheyenne WY. They tend to get way more than she would prefer.

[Bunty]

I also have a feeling that nothing much will happen in Central OK. It seems like every time they try to warn us in advance, nothing happens. Then when they give the "all clear", we get a bunch of snow.

I still did a grocery run yesterday just in case. :P

Already highs are around 5 degrees higher than forecasted. It will be interesting to see if that works out for more rain and less snow.

[venture]

Looking at the rapid refresh models..it seems to be digging the storm in over nw texas and doesn't move it much. This would be further south than the nam has been showing and somewhat close to gfs.

[poe]

Starting to get cloudy in Amarillo.

[SoonerDave]

Looking at the rapid refresh models..it seems to be digging the storm in over nw texas and doesn't move it much. This would be further south thahe nam has been showing and somewhat close to gfs.

Now , if I'm following things correctly, a slower, more southerly
route bodes *worse* for OKC (more snow), right?

[kelroy55]

My daughter and her family can help you find a place in Cheyenne WY. They tend to get way more than she would prefer.

I want lots of snow but want it to go away after I'm done playing lol

[Easy180]

Does it make a difference in the rain to snow change that OKC does not already have snow on the ground?

[Anonymous.]

Does it make a difference in the rain to snow change that OKC does not already have snow on the ground?

Having snow on the ground greatly effects this change. In this case, NW OK will go to snow almost instantly as precip. falls.

Right now the only part of OK with snow on the ground is the extreme NW and panhandle, they have temperatures in the 30s while everyone else is in the 60s.

[Jon27]

I have a 9:00 flight to Denver in the morning. Anyone know if the storm might cancel the flight?

[kelroy55]

I have a 9:00 flight to Denver in the morning. Anyone know if the storm might cancel the flight?

It probably won't on this end, I would check the Denver forecast.

[ou48A]

Aaron Tuttle Meteorologist
https://www.facebook.com/ATsFans

[venture]

Blizzard warning extended to north central ok. Nws pulled snow totals down to 3 to 5 for metro...less south, more north. They also acknowledge this forecast has a high bust potential with snow totals...so they are doing some c y a...which is smart. Lol

[Easy180]

Aaron Tuttle Meteorologist
https://www.facebook.com/ATsFans

So he is going with 6-12 for the metro? Guess he is going for the gold

[kelroy55]

please please oh please weather gods bring us a bunch of snow.

[bluedogok]

We have about 8" in here far SE Aurora and about 2-3" more expected tonight, it started after midnight today...and this is the storm headed your way.