Oklahoma Weather Discussion - February/March 2013

[Anonymous.]

edit. double post?

[Anonymous.]

I love fog. It is so unique - and conditions have to be pretty prime to get thick fog like this.


Looks like Feb is going to get active here the next few weeks.

GFS is starting to latch onto a rain event this weekend, with a follow-through winter event Mon/Tues.

[Anonymous.]

Latest runs keep the trend going.

As of right now, the storm looks to take a track eerily similar to the 2009 Christmas Eve snowstorm.

[Plutonic Panda]

Another blizzard baby... That's 3 this year so far, lets keep it going jk

[OKCisOK4me]

I guess since the local stations haven't hinted at it..that it will happen lol

[ou48A]

yep
Mike Morgan says possible snow for next Tuesday

[OKCisOK4me]

Did he wear his bling tie? If so, then I'd believe him.

[Plutonic Panda]

Well, when the news says it is going to happen, that is pretty much when you can bet that it is NOT going to happen. lol.... So just act like nothing will happen and maaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaybe something might happen.

[ljbab728]

Did he wear his bling tie? If so, then I'd believe him.

No bling tie, but he thinks that, even though we have a good chance of snow, it may be too warm to cause major problems.

[venture]

I'll get to the Severe Weather for the weekend in my next post. Let's talk snow really quick.

All this based on GFS operational runs, take them with a grain of salt, blah blah blah...I've been over this for how many years now, you guys know it already. LOL

Tuesday Feb 12 - 6AM
Precip will move in to the SW 1/2 of OK during the early AM hours. Rain/Snow line looks like it'll be somewhere around I-40 in Western OK. Could see around an inch of snow in the Elk City-Arapaho-Taloga-Arnett area. Elsewhere look for around 0.10" of rain possibly mixed with some snow and sleet.

Tuesday - 12PM
Surface low will continue to intensify around NW Texas south of the Red River. Colder air will be spilling down and will be near/below freezing roughly west of I-35 and north of I-40. Moisture will be increasing, looks for new liquid accumulations of 0.1 to 0.5" west of I-35, and lighter amounts east. Heaviest will be in NW OK where it could be over a 0.5" of liquid but this will most likely be in the form of snow. So snow totals in this time frame looks like 1-2" North of Highway 9 and east of US 81 to near US 177. West of that area snow totals could start getting a bit higher from 3-5" of additional snow fall. Still looks like mainly rain south of Highway 9 and east of US 177.

Tuesday - 6PM
Storm system tracks south of OK through North Texas. Precip will cover the entire state at this point. Looks like all but far southern and SE OK will be below freezing. I-40 and south looks like 1-2" of new snow. North of I-40 3-5" of new snow. Keep in mind this is snow falling, but with a warm ground there will be significant melting until the snowfall can catch up.

Wednesday - 12AM
Storm system moves out mostly, some wrap around precip will remain mainly in Northern and NE OK. So maybe scattered flurries I-40 and south. Up to 1 more inch of snow in North central OK, maybe another 1-2" in NE OK. Precip ends pretty fast after this.

So we'll see what happens. Things change, but this is how it looks right now. So worst case scenario right now for the Metro area would be 4-7" north of I-40 and 2-4" south of I-40. Which in reality means we'll get a dusting and everything will still be closed.

[venture]

Okay that was winter, now here is Spring. LOL

Well currently we have a couple storms in South central OK moving ENE giving some folks a good downpour. Rest of us get the drizzle still. LOL

So severe weather risk this weekend. It looks like it'll be a late Saturday into first part of Sunday show. Instability really doesn't look that exciting going by NAM and GFS. However, this time of year it doesn't take much. I wouldn't expect anything major or record breaking by any stretch. A few storms should kick up Saturday afternoon. Main focus will be western OK and then march east overnight. Total rainfall amounts don't look exciting, but it will vary depending on individual storm tracks and any training we could get in specific areas. It'll almost be like this last rain where one area (OKC) go almost an inch of rain and others (Norman) struggled to get a quarter of an inch.

We'll see how things progress as we get closer. There is a lot of moisture up here now, finally, so that will always help things.

[OKCisOK4me]

No bling tie, but he thinks that, even though we have a good chance of snow, it may be too warm to cause major problems.

Yeah, and big wet flakes too. That's fine with me!

[Anonymous.]

Latest GFS run kills the winter event. This same thing has happened all season, it shows up, then dissapears. Looks like weekend rain still on track.

Will keep updating as the runs come in as they're fun to look at.


EDIT: New run in, shows winter event once again, less intense and more south.

Also showing an event late next week as well. Like I said the next few weeks look pretty promising in terms of moisture considering where we have been.

[venture]

Latest GFS run kills the winter event. This same thing has happened all season, it shows up, then dissapears. Looks like weekend rain still on track.

Will keep updating as the runs come in as they're fun to look at.


EDIT: New run in, shows winter event once again, less intense and more south.

Also showing an event late next week as well. Like I said the next few weeks look pretty promising in terms of moisture considering where we have been.

Some friendly advice, take the 06Z and 18Z GFS runs and throw them in the trash almost every time. They almost always go off and do some random crap and the next main run fixes it.

Severe Weather for Saturday, as it has been looking on GFS for awhile, will be mainly in Texas. Slight risk includes a small around in South Central OK.

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CST THU FEB 07 2013

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF CNTRL TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER-SCALE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WRN CONUS WILL EJECT NEWD AND LIKELY
BECOME CENTERED OVER NEB BY 12Z/SUN. LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ON
SAT IN ERN CO WITH THIS CYCLONE TRACKING NEWD TOWARDS CNTRL NEB. A
N/S-ORIENTED PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD IN THE SRN
PLAINS...WITH CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DEPICTING THE FRONT ACROSS CNTRL
OK TO THE ERN EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TX AT 12Z/SUN. A WARM FRONT WILL
ADVANCE NWD FROM THE WRN GULF COAST AND SHOULD ROUGHLY INTERSECT THE
COLD FRONT NEAR THE RED RIVER AND EXTEND SEWD TOWARDS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY.

...SRN PLAINS...
ROBUST LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD BENEATH A STOUT
EML. GUIDANCE DOES DIFFER WITH THE DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN FROM THE WRN GULF WITH THE ECMWF/GFS UNUSUALLY MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE NAM AND ESPECIALLY THE SREF MEAN. THIS DOES
BREED UNCERTAINTY OVER THE NRN EXTENT OF SEVERE POTENTIAL SAT NIGHT.
WITH SUCH A PRONOUNCED CAPPING INVERSION AND APPRECIABLE MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS /ALBEIT WEAK IN TX/ NOT OCCURRING UNTIL EARLY
SUN...PRIMARY DRIVER OF SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE
PACIFIC COLD FRONT INTERSECTING THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS CNTRL TX SAT
NIGHT. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AMIDST STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER
SWLYS WOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL WITH INITIAL UPDRAFTS.
ACTIVITY WOULD LIKELY FORM INTO ONE OR MORE LINE SEGMENTS WITH A
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL. SETUP APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO
WARRANT A LOW-END SLIGHT RISK DELINEATION.

[Anonymous.]

Well seeing all the runs and coming up with an average-esque forecast seems to be somewhat fair.


I am just really clinging onto anything and everything to get some type of winter weather here in OKC. Two winters in a row without anything to remember is very sad.

[ou48A]

I’m getting a nice shower at my house.
With the storm systems lining up let’s hope this is the start of drought busting!

[Of Sound Mind]

Well seeing all the runs and coming up with an average-esque forecast seems to be somewhat fair.


I am just really clinging onto anything and everything to get some type of winter weather here in OKC. Two winters in a row without anything to remember is very sad.

No. It's not.

We need rain. No need for winter precip. It just causes headaches.

[ou48A]

No. It's not.

We need rain. No need for winter precip. It just causes headaches.

I would be happy to have several events of 2 feet of wet snow with just enough wind to blow it off the power lines and trees.

[Plutonic Panda]

Sooooooooooooooooooooooooo was this is for today or do we have more precip. coming later.

[OKCisOK4me]

Sooooooooooooooooooooooooo was this is for today or do we have more precip. coming later.

That was it:

Intellicast - Current Radar in United States

Hit 'Play Animation' above the radar.

[venture]

No. It's not.

We need rain. No need for winter precip. It just causes headaches.

Winter precip, well snow, is going to be much more beneficial at drought busting that a few downpours of rain. If we can get a good snowfall that melts gradually, it'll do wonders with replenishing the ground water. Everything else right now will just run right off and not do much.

[Plutonic Panda]

That was it:

Intellicast - Current Radar in United States

Hit 'Play Animation' above the radar.

[venture]

Well. As most know I focus mainly on the operational models and not the full ensemble of products. For this weekend I have to say I'm getting increasing pessimistic when it comes to any widespread beneficial rain. NAM is kicking out a general 0.1 to 0.4" of rain across the state with Northeast, SW, and SE OK getting the higher end of that scale. GFS is a bit different with NW OK under a tenth of an inch, SW 0.1 to 0.4", the SE 1/3rd of OK anywhere from 0.3 to 0.7" of rain, and the rest of us between a tenth and quarter inch of rain.

Severe weather chances look very low with the bulk of instability south of the Red River. Things can change if moisture return is greater than expected, but I'm starting to doubt any rainfall that will really make any impact to the drought.

[OKCisOK4me]

^^^^^makes me so mad I'm gonna x this thread off!

[Plutonic Panda]

That actually physically irritated me. >_< I BLAME YOU VENTURE!!! lol jk.... I'll blame Gary England instead lol