Oklahoma Weather Discussion - February/March 2013

[ou48A]

NWS radar image from Oklahoma City, OK (Norman)
The Storm Total Precipitation Radar on the link shows some very good precipitation totals.
But how accurate would this be?

[kelroy55]

For liability reasons. We have employees driving all over the place, so we have to make that decision.

Guess I'm just thinking back to when I lived and worked in Nebraska and offices didn't close until there was much more snow on the ground.

[SoonerDave]

Seriously? Seriously???

No wonder people think Oklahoma drivers are such wusses.

Uhmmm...if you're a business owner, and a significant component of your business involves transporting whateverm (people, things, etc) you almost certainly have liability concerns driving the decision. It might be overkill for the private individual, but for a business...don't think it makes them "wusses."

[Of Sound Mind]

Uhmmm...if you're a business owner, and a significant component of your business involves transporting whateverm (people, things, etc) you almost certainly have liability concerns driving the decision. It might be overkill for the private individual, but for a business...don't think it makes them "wusses."

No, it does.

[SoonerDave]

With all respect to you guys, I was referring to the 10" + "accumulations" some of the models were forecasting for Central OK that were believed. The key word is "accumulations." Not going to happen in a daytime snowfall event with temps at 32-33 degrees. NWS didn't take the bait. Have you checked your radars lately?? Dryer air is trying to punch in from the SW. Once that dry slot moves on in, it's "bye bye' to the snow that's already fallen. Please don't kill the messenger.

I don't think anyone here was expecting 10" of anything. Last forecast I heard, which was about 4pm yesterday in all honesty, said OKC would be doing well to get an inch if anything. Based on that, they underestimated.

[Video Expert]

I don't think anyone here was expecting 10" of anything. Last forecast I heard, which was about 4pm yesterday in all honesty, said OKC would be doing well to get an inch if anything. Based on that, they underestimated.

NWS issued an updated total yesterday evening that predicted 1-4 inches in C. Oklahoma. I think that will be pretty accurate by the end of this event. This storm has turned into "SlushFest 2013" for most of the Metro.

[Anonymous.]

Not to toot our own horns, but...

Re reading this thread [particuluarly pages 4 and 5] will show you that the people posting here had a more cautious and better grasp of the developing situation than what the NWS was leading people to prepare for.


EDIT: The wrap around in the TX pan handle is looking nice and healthy at the moment; will have to watch and see what goes on in SW OK within the next few hours.

[ou48A]

No wonder people think Oklahoma drivers are such wusses.

I have driven hundreds of thousands of miles on rough, muddy, snow cloged oil field leases roads. I have forged significant rivers, busted pick up hood deep snow drifts. I have driven in blinding rain, snow, and dust storms while not being able to see past your hood ornament. I have experienced life threating events of several types while driving…..

While out driving there is nothing that bothers me worse than big city drivers who don’t have a clue how to handle a vehicle.
I stay off the OKC area interstates when its slick.
Anymore the insurance company’s and the attorneys have a lot to say about who drives and when.

[ShiroiHikari]

Big, fluffy, wet snowflakes still coming down pretty heavily here on the eastside of Norman. The grass is pretty white, but the street is only wet, from what I can tell. Though that could quickly change.

I hope it keeps falling for a while. We could use the moisture.

[Of Sound Mind]

I have driven hundreds of thousands of miles on rough, muddy, snow cloged oil field leases roads. I have forged significant rivers, busted pick up hood deep snow drifts. I have driven in blinding rain, snow, and dust storms while not being able to see past your hood ornament. I have experienced life threating events of several types while driving…..

While out driving there is nothing that bothers me worse than big city drivers who don’t have a clue how to handle a vehicle.

Agreed. Fortunately, I had the opportunity to learn how to drive in the upper midwest, so driving in the snow wasn't normally a problem until it was 6 inches or more. I too hate driving during these times because others do not know how to drive on streets and highways in these conditions. I have the luxury of adjusting my commute to avoid the peak headache times. It doesn't change the fact that Oklahoma drivers are wusses when it comes to any precip, especially wintry precip.

[Of Sound Mind]

Incidentally, my daughter just texted me to let me know that UCO has cancelled classes for the remainder of the day.

[Video Expert]

Not to toot our own horns, but...

Re reading this thread [particuluarly pages 4 and 5] will show you that the people posting here had a more cautious and better grasp of the developing situation than what the NWS was leading people to prepare for.

Sorry Anon...I respectfully disagree. You said yourself in post #85 that the models were "underestimating the cool/cold air." They didn't. Temps are 33+, and ground temps are in the 40s. That's why the NWS didn't cry wolf.

Several posts in this thread from last night made it sound like with clear skies, the temps were about to plummet, we were in for a major snowstorm with massive accumulations here in Central OK starting early AM, and basically the forecasters at the NWS were a bunch of idiots. (BTW...our temps here in Norman were still around 40 degrees at 7am this morning!)

How many times has the NWS and the TV meteorologists predicted a major snow storm in C. OK only to see if not happen? Truth be told, the NWS was the ones being more "cautious" by not over blowing the expected snowfall accumulations like has happened in the past. It's also why there was a wait to issue the Winter Storm Watch. Sure, this isn't a "dusting" either, but I'm referring to snowfall accumulations.

See the post from Aaron Tuttle on page 5. NWS went with "scenario 2", which at the end of the day is how it's all playing out.

[ou48A]

Agreed. Fortunately, I had the opportunity to learn how to drive in the upper midwest, so driving in the snow wasn't normally a problem until it was 6 inches or more. I too hate driving during these times because others do not know how to drive on streets and highways in these conditions. I have the luxury of adjusting my commute to avoid the peak headache times. It doesn't change the fact that Oklahoma drivers are wusses when it comes to any precip, especially wintry precip.

It’s a matter of having the experience with the confidence and the right vehicle.
There are plenty of paranoid people.
You should never try driving in Dallas in this type of weather if you think we are bad.
But many places do a far better job of snow removal than in Oklahoma including parts of Texas.

[venture]

Yeesh. Alright already. The main issue with this forecast was freezing levels around 500 to 1500 feet. Surface temps were NEVER expected to go below freezing. The concern then became if snowfall rates were high enough, they would eventually overcome ground melting. It needs to be kept in mind that many snowfall forecast models don't take ground melting in account. The ones at TwisterData I believe do since they normally showed 2-4" over much of the area, even with high QPF amounts. You issue a watch for the potential...the potential was there. Tornado watches always expire without having a single confirmed report during their life span.

Just about every scenario was played out here by several contributors. If you want to lump everyone in as being wrong, and historical hype machine Aaron Tuttle are correct (for once)...then so be it. Everyone is a fan of someone, so there are preferences and people will see things through rose colored glasses. If you want a fan boy debate, do it someone where. Anyways...

Radar trends show the southern end holding tight from Anadarko to Purcell to Coalgate. Looking at the Frederick radar wrap around is filling in some all the way south to Guthrie, TX. Depending on how things play out, this should move mostly ENE and give areas that are going to a light snow/drizzle now another round of snow.

[Of Sound Mind]

But many places do a far better job of snow removal than in Oklahoma including parts of Texas.

That's certainly true. Even without snow removal, it is possible to safely drive in this weather.

[Anonymous.]

Sorry Anon...I respectfully disagree. You said yourself in post #85 that the models were "underestimating the cool/cold air." They didn't. Temps are 33+, and ground temps are in the 40s. That's why the NWS didn't cry wolf.

Several posts in this thread from last night made it sound like with clear skies, the temps were about to plummet, we were in for a major snowstorm with massive accumulations here in Central OK starting early AM, and basically the forecasters at the NWS were a bunch of idiots. (BTW...our temps here in Norman were still around 40 degrees at 7am this morning!)

How many times has the NWS and the TV meteorologists predicted a major snow storm in C. OK only to see if not happen? Truth be told, the NWS was the ones being more "cautious" by not over blowing the expected snowfall accumulations like has happened in the past. It's also why there was a wait to issue the Winter Storm Watch. Sure, this isn't a "dusting" either, but I'm referring to snowfall accumulations.

See the post from Aaron Tuttle on page 5. NWS went with "scenario 2", which at the end of the day is how it's all playing out.

Post #84 is mine - and yes the models did underestimate the cold air.

This is why all of the models and forecasts before now shows little to no accumulation in the metro. Now there is a few inches on the grass and more to come later. This is a clear underestimation of cold air in place than what models suggested. The thing about forecasting winter events around 32 degrees F is just that... very tedious, a couple degrees in one direction or another and you have a different outcome.

Having clear skies for the earlier part of the night helped significantly to bring us out of the mid 50s we had reached earlier in the day, not a chance this happens with cloud cover - we would be lucky to fall to 40. Does 7:30 am not count as early AM for snow mixing with rain in OKC? Please, the local media and NWS both went with the 2pm time frame for snow in the metro. They are smart to override their forecast graphics and reupload them as the same files, or else we would see the trail in this very thread. But most people on here just link the live image path and as the source updates it, the pages here reflect that update.

I am not sure why you are defending the NWS and the local media so much when they all changed their forecasts drastically about 3 times in the last 15 hours... I am sure you would be on here trying to stir things up even further if it had rained all day in OKC.



Enjoy the wrap around later this afternoon...

[SoonerDave]

See the post from Aaron Tuttle on page 5. NWS went with "scenario 2", which at the end of the day is how it's all playing out.

If you're even indirectly trying to link the Tuttle Siren with the folks on this thread, I have to infer you don't visit this thread very often.

If anything, most forecasters I heard went out of their way to say that this round was very difficult to predict because of temperatures. So for all the times the predictions might have misfired before, I sure can't see how this is one of them.

[venture]

I am not sure why you are defending the NWS and the local media so much when they all changed their forecasts drastically about 3 times in the last 15 hours... I am sure you would be on here trying to stir things up even further if it had rained all day in OKC.

Not saying that is the case here, but we do have local TV mets posting on these threads. Some aren't as obvious as others, so keep that mind when viewing comments.

[ewoodard70]

Heavy snow in Guthrie with good accumulation. Haven't been on streets yet, but heard roads are slick.

[Video Expert]

If you're even indirectly trying to link the Tuttle Siren with the folks on this thread, I have to infer you don't visit this thread very often.

If anything, most forecasters I heard went out of their way to say that this round was very difficult to predict because of temperatures. So for all the times the predictions might have misfired before, I sure can't see how this is one of them.

I'm not trying to link any "Tuttle Siren" to anyone, nor am I a "fanboy" or whatever of anyone. I also did not intend on trying to stir up some sort of controversy, so please relax. I simply stated that in my opinion, the bashing of the NWS of "blowing this one" was wrong, that's all.

I think we can all agree that predicting snowfall accumulations, types of precip, etc. can be a tricky proposition in a "warm" air, "warm" ground, daytime winter weather event.

[ou48A]

Tuttle Siren = fun at least for me.

[Video Expert]

I am not sure why you are defending the NWS and the local media so much when they all changed their forecasts drastically about 3 times in the last 15 hours... I am sure you would be on here trying to stir things up even further if it had rained all day in OKC.

Enjoy the wrap around later this afternoon...

Not sure why all the wrath directed towards me regarding my earlier statements. Again, I wasn't trying to "stir things up." I never accused the NWS or local Mets with blowing a forecast when they didn't. And I'll predict now that the "wrap around" won't amount to much, if anything. It rarely does, especially when you look at the faster movement of that round of precip. It's not like the temps are going to free fall in the next 6 hours or anything. If I'm wrong about that, I'll be the first to admit it.

WRWA = 1" of Snow as of 12:30PM

[ou48A]

That's certainly true. Even without snow removal, it is possible to safely drive in this weather.

Yes it is possible to drive safely in this type of snow but I would much rather do it in a more rural area where even in Oklahoma you don’t encounter near as many scared drivers.
People who have lived in Alaska and the UP of Michigan have told me the worst blizzards they ever saw were on the high plans of far western Kansas and eastern Colorado. I have experienced driving in them.

[venture]

One good band of heavier snow on the west sides of town. Various snowfall reports will pop up on this image. They aren't snow totals, just reports being sent into the NWS at that time.

[FritterGirl]

Not to toot our own horns, but...

Re reading this thread [particuluarly pages 4 and 5] will show you that the people posting here had a more cautious and better grasp of the developing situation than what the NWS was leading people to prepare for.


EDIT: The wrap around in the TX pan handle is looking nice and healthy at the moment; will have to watch and see what goes on in SW OK within the next few hours.

I tend to come on here and read the threads on pending weather events as opposed to relying upon the TV media. You tell it straight, without all of the hyperbole or histrionics as in the media. I'm sure I'm not the only one.