Oklahoma Weather Discussion - February/March 2013

[Easy180]

The national sites nailed it today going with 1-3 compared to our local folks going with higher totals

[venture]

With the amount of economic damage that a major snow storm would cause I would hardly call not getting a major snow a bust for OKC.

We did however put a bit of a dent in our drought. Aside from some bruised ego’s it’s very much a net positive for OKC.
The good folks of NW Oklahoma would not call this a bust storm either!

Bust obviously refers in the forecast outcome. When you miss it, you bust. Though I agree this does help with the short term drought a good deal. Won't really do too much for filling up the lakes though.

To add insult to the whole thing, it is now actually accumulating to the EAST of the okc metro, that narrow band of heavy to moderate snow is pretty stationary.


I drew this showing where I estimate measurable snowfall fell today or will fall tonight:


OKC shield hardly ceases to prevail.

Sometimes I need to keep my mouth shut when noticing things.

Currently heavy snow bad east of the Metro area is ticking down just a tad. More wrap around continues to move into the north metro so might see more accumulation there. I-40 and south west of Pott County looks like very light precip for now unless some the heavier stuff can make it through OK County.

[venture]

The Central and Southern Metro area was downgraded to a Winter Wx Advisory for the rest of the night. Northern Metro is still under the respective warnings.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
830 PM CST MON FEB 25 2013


...VERY DANGEROUS WINTER STORM CONTINUES TONIGHT ACROSS
MAINLY NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...


OKZ024-025-027>029-037-038-TXZ084-085-261030-
/O.CAN.KOUN.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130226T1200Z/
/O.EXA.KOUN.WW.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-130226T1200Z/
CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-TILLMAN-COMANCHE-FOARD-
WILBARGER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...YUKON...EL RENO...MUSTANG...
OKLAHOMA CITY...CHICKASHA...PURCELL...NORMAN...MOORE...
FREDERICK...LAWTON...CROWELL...VERNON
830 PM CST MON FEB 25 2013


...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
CANCELLED.


* MAIN IMPACT: SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST
OF TONIGHT...SLOWLY DIMINISHING. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE ONE INCH OR LESS...THOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS MAY GET 2
TO 3 INCHES.


* OTHER IMPACTS: STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS 35 TO 50 MPH WILL RESULT
IN BLOWING SNOW WHICH WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AND DRIFT SNOW.
SOME SLICK AND ICY SPOTS WILL DEVELOP ON ROADS.

[Mississippi Blues]

(Well to be politically correct, I probably should've said weatherpeople)

Actually, it's weather folks, PluPlan. Get yourself together bro.

[Plutonic Panda]

Actually, it's weather folks, PluPlan. Get yourself together bro.

You are absolutely right. What on earth was I thinking? lol

[Mississippi Blues]

You are absolutely right. What on earth was I thinking? lol

I have no idea amigo.

[Uncle Slayton]

Oh well...maybe tornado season will redeem OK's rep as a state with interesting weather.

Rain. Woot.

Some 40,000 state employees in Metro counties given anywhere from 2-4 hours of paid administrative leave tomorrow-report at 10:00AM, for rain. The comptroller should send the bill to the TV stations and NWS.

Nostradamus had better luck guessing the apocalypse than central OK meteorologists predicting snow. (No one's ever exactly answered why they can tell you which side of the damn road or which row of Aunt Edna's garden the tornado will hit, but for some unfathomable reason, frozen water absolutely confounds them. One wonders if they can work the icemakers in their respective refrigerators). "Why isn't there ice in the fridge, honey, was that your question? Well, um, it's complicated...see, we had the water and the temperature, but at the last moment, a dry slot from the veggie crisper got wrapped in and ruined the whole thing."

This was a Golden Corral buffet of fail.

[Anonymous.]

Keep in mind, just because OKC missed out on the snow (see my graphic on the last page) - doesn't mean the storm didn't verify for others. parts of NW OK are under 15 inches of snow, and I won't be surprised if the area north of Enid to Alva has close to 2 feet with 6 foot drifts.

[MonkeesFan]

I had to laugh at the schools closing when there is no snow at all, EPIC FAIL but the students are lucky to stay home though

[venture]

Keep in mind, just because OKC missed out on the snow (see my graphic on the last page) - doesn't mean the storm didn't verify for others. parts of NW OK are under 15 inches of snow, and I won't be surprised if the area north of Enid to Alva has close to 2 feet with 6 foot drifts.

Exactly. People think that just because it didn't do X in their yard that the forecast busted completely. If anything they went maybe 50 miles too far SE with the snow forecast.

Overall though I'm going back through past GFS runs to see what matches up the best, looks like the 18Z Sunday GFS run came in pretty close.

TwisterData.com | GFS SURFACE SNOWIN Forecast

The chance for significant snow first started to show up Friday evening in the 00Z Sat Feb 23rd run.

TwisterData.com | GFS SURFACE SNOWIN Forecast

Not bad for 4 days out. Could have been more but I can only go back that far.

[venture]

Looking ahead, nothing major showing up through the first half of March right now. Of course that'll change, but for now looks like we will dry out.

[Mississippi Blues]

This thread died so fast compared to how it was.

[OKCisOK4me]

Is there mud outside? Is that standing water I see? Definitely great to see the wet weather. Law and MarkAFuqua have completely disappeared from the Lake Hefner thread as of late, lol...

[Video Expert]

I have to give some props to the NWS for getting their first winter event this year, correct. [for the most part]

They, too adjusted their forecast for what looked like heavier snow over the I-44 corridor. But the original advisories they put in place were spot on (minus the WSWarning for the metro).


NWS 1 - OKCTalk 2

I appreciated you and Venture's updates and analysis today. I still respectfully have to disagree with you about the NWS being wrong regarding the Feb. 12th event though.

[SoonerDave]

Oh well...maybe tornado season will redeem OK's rep as a state with interesting weather.

Rain. Woot.

Some 40,000 state employees in Metro counties given anywhere from 2-4 hours of paid administrative leave tomorrow-report at 10:00AM, for rain. The comptroller should send the bill to the TV stations and NWS.

Nostradamus had better luck guessing the apocalypse than central OK meteorologists predicting snow. (No one's ever exactly answered why they can tell you which siide of the damn road or which row of Aunt Edna's garden the tornado will hit, but for some unfathomable reasonfrozen water absolutely confounds them. One wonders if they can work the icemakers in their respective refrigerators). "Why isn't there ice in the fridge, honey, was that your question? Well, um, it's complicated...see, we had the water and the temperature, but at the last moment, a dry slot from the veggie crisper got wrapped in and ruined the whole thing."

This was a Golden Corral buffet of fail.

Not nearly as big a buffet fail as your post.

If you had the slightest clue what you were talking about, you'd realize how utterly asinine it sounds

[Praedura]

It's very lightly snowing in Edmond right now.

I'm seeing some accumulation for the first time today -- there's a paper thin blanket of white on the grass. I guess that it's finally cold enough for it to stick.

[Mississippi Blues]

Well, my car has finally received snow accumulations on it as of 22:13 or 10:13 P.M.

[adaniel]

First off, thanks Venture, Anonymous, and others who were pouring over models and giving us great updates. Don't be bothered by the armchair quarterbackering on here, haters gonna hate ya know.

Looking into your meteorological crystal ball, can we kinda assume that this event and the accompanying cool temperatures coming in the next few days are "winter's last hurrah?"

[SoonerBoy18]

Wish it could have stuck to the ground soon as it started falling, El Reno got a good amount but wow why would they lie and say 6-8" though. Just messed up the mood. =( and for those of you who risked your lives by going to the fast food resturaunts during all this... shame on you.

[LocoAko]

Wish it could have stuck to the ground soon as it started falling, El Reno got a good amount but wow why would they lie and say 6-8" though. Just messed up the mood. =( and for those of you who risked your lives by going to the fast food resturaunts during all this... shame on you.

They weren't "lying" on purpose to you. Sometimes I wonder if my skin is thick enough for this profession and I'm not even in a forecasting position, lol. Sheesh. It doesn't help that I can't tell who on here is being serious in their frustration and who isn't.

[ljbab728]

/headbash

With the way trends are going it looks like it might be worse. Why does it seem what he say here, TV always does the opposite. We'll say it is slacking off, they call for the end of the world. We say it might be a bit heavier than previous expected, they call for sunshine and daisies.

Not meaning to pick on you, venture, but it looks like your headbashing was a little premature even if Mike might have been guessing as much as anyone.

[sayyes]

It's crazy that the snow keeps snaking its way around Oklahoma City Metro.

[venture]

Not meaning to pick on you, venture, but it looks like your headbashing was a little premature even if Mike might have been guessing as much as anyone.

Sure it was. However, watching him gloat like an immature brat (similar to his approach whenever he has trolled onto message boards) was just making me cringe.

[ljbab728]

Sure it was. However, watching him gloat like an immature brat (similar to his approach whenever he has trolled onto message boards) was just making me cringe.

Obviously there is no love lost here, but name calling isn't something you normally indulge in.

[Achilleslastand]

So im assuming for February we are over the average for precip here in the metro?