Oklahoma Weather Discussion - February/March 2013

[ou48A]

Loving the notion of more moisture.

I gather that this new storm is still in the highly uncertain stage of forecasting, but more wet weather is good news.
Apparently there are several systems lining up in the pacific that will impact our weather to some extent?

[tillyato]

Yup. No matter where you go people will also say the same thing about their hometown.

"If you don't like the weather, just wait 5 minutes..."

Get's old after awhile. LOL

In fairness, the quote "If you don't like the weather in Oklahoma, wait a minute and it'll change" is from Will Rogers about Oklahoma weather. We can't help that other states thought the same thing about their weather too, lol.

[Anonymous.]

Yup. No matter where you go people will also say the same thing about their hometown.

"If you don't like the weather, just wait 5 minutes..."

Get's old after awhile. LOL

This. So much this. Also everyone claims where they're from has "the worst humidity ever".

And to elaborate on why everyone, everywhere thinks their weather is so 'extreme' is because most weather events are not 'extreme' at all. They are normal. Everyone always says "wow it's crazy it was 60 degrees yesterday and now it's snowing! hahahaha hehehehehe we have such random weather!"... No, you don't - this is how a normal low level storm works. It approaches from the west and pulls warmer air and moisture from the south, then once the storm passes the back side has north winds bringing in cold, dry air. Anyone with basic knowledge can figure this out by looking @ a radar, when a storm is present it usually looks like a giant "comma-shaped" shield, the wind fields around it are blatant.



Okay, onto what's coming. The models should have a better grasp on the upcoming week later tonight and tomorrow as this last storm is being kicked away. But right now it looks like Monday/Tuesday and then Thursday winter events.

[Jim Kyle]

And a word filter knocks the **** out of a county name. Hilarious.

It's been that way forever here. Don't talk about gourmet mushrooms, either...

[Easy180]

This. So much this. Also everyone claims where they're from has "the worst humidity ever".

And to elaborate on why everyone, everywhere thinks their weather is so 'extreme' is because most weather events are not 'extreme' at all. They are normal. Everyone always says "wow it's crazy it was 60 degrees yesterday and now it's snowing! hahahaha hehehehehe we have such random weather!"... No, you don't - this is how a normal low level storm works. It approaches from the west and pulls warmer air and moisture from the south, then once the storm passes the back side has north winds bringing in cold, dry air. Anyone with basic knowledge can figure this out by looking @ a radar, when a storm is present it usually looks like a giant "comma-shaped" shield, the wind fields around it are blatant.



Okay, onto what's coming. The models should have a better grasp on the upcoming week later tonight and tomorrow as this last storm is being kicked away. But right now it looks like Monday/Tuesday and then Thursday winter events.

Those days must still be iffy as most sites and apps show upper 40's to 50 on Monday and near 60 on Tues

[Mississippi Blues]

Also everyone claims where they're from has "the worst humidity ever".

Mississippi has some harsh humidity in the summertime, although it's not bad in the other 3 seasons unless you're close to the Mississippi River or you're down around the gulf, and even then it's bearable (for me anyway).

[venture]

00Z NAM has nothing for Monday. Storm system comes through Sunday with mostly light precip (liquid) east of I-35.

New GFS is running now.

[ou48A]

Everyone always says "wow it's crazy it was 60 degrees yesterday and now it's snowing! hahahaha hehehehehe we have such random weather!"... No, you don't - this is how a normal low level storm works.

Extreme weather is a relative term.

I once read in the 50 years ago today section of the Guymon paper that Guymon resident who had enjoyed 95 degree late winter temp’s awoke to 6 inches of snow and temps in the single digits with winds gusting to over 70 mph.

The high plains are noted for having extreme weather because the weather is actually extreme over a very broad area compared to most other places. The news media hardly ever reports live from these places during their bad blizzards.
The worst of their bad blizzards are to be feared.They are destructive and far more life threating than anything OKC ever sees in the way of snow storms.

[Anonymous.]

00Z NAM has nothing for Monday. Storm system comes through Sunday with mostly light precip (liquid) east of I-35.

New GFS is running now.

Looks pretty weak right now, but it is a compact storm. Struggles on moisture and is moving pretty fast. We will see how the models handle the snow melt the next couple days and see if the storm slows in, it could be a 'closed off low' type storm.

[venture]

Looks pretty weak right now, but it is a compact storm. Struggles on moisture and is moving pretty fast. We will see how the models handle the snow melt the next couple days and see if the storm slows in, it could be a 'closed off low' type storm.

Doesn't really get cranking until it is by us...which it is gone by Sunday evening. GFS has zero precip anywhere near us.

[sacolton]

Well, they gotta make something up to keep viewers watching. The BIG STORY this morning with lots of drama is "BLACK ICE EVERYWHERE!!! STAY HOME!!! AHHHHHHHH!!!" ... my drive to work was dry.

[Anonymous.]

Doesn't really get cranking until it is by us...which it is gone by Sunday evening. GFS has zero precip anywhere near us.

GFS finally catching onto the system. I have found that the models really suck @ forecasting future storms when there is still a current storm over the area. GFS puts the storm further north and east.

This morning's NAM actually brings the storm further south and a little slower. Will have to see where it trends the next 48 hours.


As of right now, eastern KS and central MO get pounded again.

[ou48A]

They said we got 1.4 inches of liquid equivalent in Norman…
It’s been a long time since we have seen that much moisture.

[Anonymous.]

Latest models runs are in, NAM continues to trend southward. GFS dramatically changed south on newest run.


Right now I think this could be a closed-low system, which dissallows dry air from being pulled into the system, and creates a compact pocket of very heavy precipitation over a small area. It may open up over the next few runs.

[ou48A]

Latest models runs are in, NAM continues to trend southward. GFS dramatically changed south on newest run.


Right now I think this could be a closed-low system, which dissallows dry air from being pulled into the system, and creates a compact pocket of very heavy precipitation over a small area. It may open up over the next few runs.

Thanks for the updates
Is this looking like an all snow event?

[venture]

Thanks for the updates
Is this looking like an all snow event?

Depends on the model.

NAM = All snow, with above freezing surface temps.
GFS = All rain as it is warm all the way through.

So far amounts look low - less than a quarter inch liquid, just need to watch it to see if it can tap into more moisture.

[Anonymous.]

Models indicate another battle of lower 30s over much of the area, but the models are also terrible at understanding cold pooling from snowpack. All of KS and NW OK are covered in 10+inches of snow right now and will struggle to break 30s. Also this snowpack melting off and keeping the area "damp" provides enhanced moisture.

[ou48A]

Models indicate another battle of lower 30s over much of the area, but the models are also terrible at understanding cold pooling from snowpack. All of KS and NW OK are covered in 10+inches of snow right now and will struggle to break 30s. Also this snowpack melting off and keeping the area "damp" provides enhanced moisture.

I was going to ask about the snow pack and its possible impact on this storm.
KWTV 9 met Armstrong just talked about it as well. I like his weather deliveries.

Even though you might be in a location that doesn’t have snow on the ground experience tells me that a north wind blowing off the snow pack will keep things colder than they otherwise would be….. This is where the skills of a good Met enter the picture and where I get lost on my understanding of what’s going on.

[venture]

NAM continues the trend south with the snow late Sunday/Monday. Forecast temps ahead of this system are probably overdoing it a bit. We'll see how much snow melt we get in the next day, but looking at today it isn't going to be enough. If we can keep the low levels cool, it'll make this all the easier to forecast for a change.

[venture]

Special Wx Statement from Norman...

...WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK...


A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT OKLAHOMA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND OVER CENTRAL SECTIONS OF OKLAHOMA ON
MONDAY. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE LIKELY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. STRONG WINDS
WILL ALSO CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW WHICH WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITIES AND CREATE TREACHEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.


SOME QUESTIONS REMAIN ON THE EXACT PATH OF THE STORM SYSTEM AND ITS
HEAVIEST SNOW. FOLLOW THE LATEST INFORMATION AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN.

And the AFD...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
253 PM CST FRI FEB 22 2013


.DISCUSSION...
THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT WINTRY PRECIP AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION HAS SINCE MOVED INTO THE
NORTHEAST...LEAVING US WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS
AND CLEAR SKIES. WITH REMAINING SNOWPACK OVER NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA...MAX TEMPS HAVE STRUGGLED INTO THE 20S THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL ALSO EFFECT OVERNIGHT TEMPS...AND EXPECT AT LEAST ONE OR
TWO SPOTS TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE
AIDED BY A SFC HIGH PRESSURE DOME...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR CALM
WINDS AND OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. WITH THESE POINTS IN
MIND...HAVE GONE MUCH BELOW GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.


A WEAK WAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA TOMORROW...DESPITE WIDESPREAD
MID/UPPER CLOUDS...LACKING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PREVENT ANY
PRECIPITATION FROM FALLING. HOWEVER...CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT DAYTIME
HEATING...AND MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR JUST BELOW AVERAGE.


THE FORECAST BECOMES QUITE COMPLEX HEADING INTO THE SUNDAY/MONDAY
TIME FRAME. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES WILL RESUME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...BRINGING MODEST
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION. FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...A COMPACT BUT POTENT CUTOFF LOW WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THIS
SAME AREA...SURGING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING/LOCATION OF THIS
SYSTEM...OUR AREA IS IN FOR MULTIPLE FACETS OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER.
THE PRIMARY CONCERN ATTM IS WINTER WEATHER...WITH POSSIBLE
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. GIVEN MODEST YET SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN...AT LEAST
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST AS WIND FIELDS WILL BE
HIGHLY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS...THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL NOT
BE ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE. FIRE DANGER WILL ALSO BE ELEVATED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...AS
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES PROMOTE FALLING HUMIDITIES AND
WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW.


THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS
SYSTEM...THOUGH MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON A
DEEPER...SLOWER...AND MORE SOUTHERLY STORM TRACK THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. EXACT ACCUMULATIONS OF WINTRY PRECIP REMAIN UNKNOWN...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT CERTAIN LOCATIONS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WILL SEE BETWEEN 3 AND 5
INCHES OF SNOW.


IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN IS
EVIDENT. A WEAK WAVE WILL EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH AT LEAST SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...AND WITH A DEEPENING
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD...EXPECT UNSEASONABLY COOL AND
DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FROM MID WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

[ou48A]

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigw...ther+Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
315 PM CST FRI FEB 22 2013

...WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK...

A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT OKLAHOMA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND OVER CENTRAL SECTIONS OF OKLAHOMA ON
MONDAY. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE LIKELY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. STRONG WINDS
WILL ALSO CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW WHICH WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITIES AND CREATE TREACHEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.


SOME QUESTIONS REMAIN ON THE EXACT PATH OF THE STORM SYSTEM AND ITS
HEAVIEST SNOW. FOLLOW THE LATEST INFORMATION AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN.

[ou48A]

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigw...ther+Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
315 PM CST FRI FEB 22 2013

...WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK...

A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT OKLAHOMA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND OVER CENTRAL SECTIONS OF OKLAHOMA ON
MONDAY. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE LIKELY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. STRONG WINDS
WILL ALSO CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW WHICH WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITIES AND CREATE TREACHEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.


SOME QUESTIONS REMAIN ON THE EXACT PATH OF THE STORM SYSTEM AND ITS
HEAVIEST SNOW. FOLLOW THE LATEST INFORMATION AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN.

I need to make a serious commentary on the information above that hope registers with the right people.




In areas that still have significant snow on the ground a hard crust will have developed on top of the snow.
With the strong winds in the forecast this will cause any additional snow to blow across winter wheat fields and on top of short drought stricken grass.

The snow will collect in extra deep drifts along roads and structures, including houses in exposed areas. From my personal experiences from living in NW Oklahoma and on the high plains a 6 inch wind driven snow blowing along on top of a hard crust can seem like a 30 inch snow event or more. This is when you don’t want to leave town in any type of vehicle. People have died in cars when this happens.

This could fall into the category of being particularly dangerous for some folks living in flat remote areas who still have significant snow cover.

It’s been my very strong opinion for many years that WX forecasters and the TV MET’s don’t take an event as I described as seriously as they should.

[venture]

Apparently someone has me on ignore. LOL //rollseye Anyway...

I need to make a serious commentary on the information above that hope registers with the right people.

In areas that still have significant snow on the ground a hard crust will have developed on top of the snow.
With the strong winds in the forecast this will cause any additional snow to blow across winter wheat fields and on top of short drought stricken grass.

The snow will collect in extra deep drifts along roads and structures, including houses in exposed areas. From my personal experiences from living in NW Oklahoma and on the high plains a 6 inch wind driven snow blowing along on top of a hard crust can seem like a 30 inch snow event or more. This is when you don’t want to leave town in any type of vehicle. People have died in cars when this happens.

This could fall into the category of being particularly dangerous for some folks living in flat remote areas who still have significant snow cover.

It’s been my very strong opinion for many years that WX forecasters and the TV MET’s don’t take an event as I described as seriously as they should.

Any existing snow cover can cause or enhance drifting of snow. Even snow glazed over I've seen many times contribute to drifting snow over roads that were clean for days before wind kicks in.

We'll have to see how it works out up north. Temps might be above freezing tomorrow and during the first part of the storm so that would lead to more of a slush for new snow to blow over. We'll just have to wait and see how things shape up. Forecasting localized drifting from pre-existing snow isn't something that can really be forecast. General rule of thumb would be if we had a strong west wind and there is snow cover, to obviously watch any north-south roads.

[venture]

18Z GFS dry slots much of Central OK, but has wrap around snow through much of Western and Southern Oklahoma. To early to really read much into at all yet though, especially if it gets cut off.

[ou48A]

Apparently someone has me on ignore. LOL //rollseye Anyway...



Any existing snow cover can cause or enhance drifting of snow. Even snow glazed over I've seen many times contribute to drifting snow over roads that were clean for days before wind kicks in.

We'll have to see how it works out up north. Temps might be above freezing tomorrow and during the first part of the storm so that would lead to more of a slush for new snow to blow over. We'll just have to wait and see how things shape up. Forecasting localized drifting from pre-existing snow isn't something that can really be forecast. General rule of thumb would be if we had a strong west wind and there is snow cover, to obviously watch any north-south roads.

I am not sure who you are talking about but I don’t have you on ignore