Fallout from Wright Amendment Changes

[brianinok]

What will be the fallout from the Wright Amendment changes? We know the following:

- Southwest is beginning 4 daily flights each from Dallas Love to Kansas City and St. Louis.
- Southwest has not announced any decrease in service elsewhere.
- American will begin flights from Dallas Love as soon as they can get up and running. No flight schedule or destinations have been announced.
- American will only use their 3 gates at Love, and will not add more at this time.

Some speculation:
- American may move some RJ's to Love to fly outside the Wright amendment states (possibly at a premium price?).
- American will be limited with only 3 gates. They will need to add gates if they are going to make a serious dent in Southwest's service there. At 3 gates, St. Louis would definitely have numerous flights (although passengers won't be able to change planes there just like on Southwest-- unless they purchase a whole new ticket), maybe Houston, Kansas City, San Antonio, Albuquerque. Could even OKC, Tulsa, El Paso, etc. see American service to Love? Remember, they are bound by the Wright Amendment as well-- so their number of cities they can fly to with mainline jets is very limited.
- I wouldnt' think that with just 2 additional cities for Southwest (8 daily flights), they would have to decrease service elsewhere. They should be able to obsorbe 8 flights within their nationwide system pretty easily.

[venture]

I don't think OKC will see a major impact until Wright is completely removed - this is why I would like to see a perimeter rule like DCA and LGA, but still remove the ban for connecting service. I do think OKC may see nonstop flights on AA to DAL, simply to capture the massive local O&D market between the two. This would keep DFW to connecting flights.

I think American's response will be interesting...but justified. Southwest needs someone to actually compete with them. All too often Southwest is given the golden pass where competition falls away or Southwest plays hard ball to get what they want (see ATA at MDW).