General Weather Discussion - May 2017

[Anonymous.]

Welcome to May. Most of the state is now above normal rainfall track for the year. The last few weeks of storm systems have dumped heavy rains over much of the area and creeks and lakes are full.

Overall for the area, currently Central Oklahoma is +5.69" of rain over normal.

Next shot @ measurable rainfall will be Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

Currently, the long-range outlook shows the next solid rain chance coming in around the 10th of May. In terms of temperatures, very spring-like air will be in place with highs in the 70s and low 80s.

[Bobby821]

Next shot at severe weather appears to be the second half of May until then things seem fairly quiet except some garden variety storms.

[Anonymous.]

Should see storms develop in NW OK. These will attempt to backbuild south into OK. Best shot is northern OK, but likely some clipping showers/storms cutting through C OK overnight.

EDIT: Storms are firing now in TX PH and NW OK, look for complex to develop and swing eastward. Damaging wind will be main threat.

[C_M_25]

This has been a really quiet spring. I wonder if we will get into our typical severe weather pattern, or if it will be like a few years ago? Lots or rain through May/June then too hot to get any severe weather. I think our TV stars (meteorologists...ahem...) are getting antsy though!

[jn1780]

This has been a really quiet spring. I wonder if we will get into our typical severe weather pattern, or if it will be like a few years ago? Lots or rain through May/June then too hot to get any severe weather. I think our TV stars (meteorologists...ahem...) are getting antsy though!

I know models are hinting that the weather pattern will become more favorable for severe weather in Mid May. So there is a chance the last part of May is more active.

[Anonymous.]

Finally, a beautiful spring weekend shaping up. The best part, LIGHT WINDS!! This will likely be one of those "damn, remember that weekend" weekends.

Like mentioned a few days ago, May 10 timeframe is next action spot.

[Roger S]

Finally, a beautiful spring weekend shaping up. The best part, LIGHT WINDS!! This will likely be one of those "damn, remember that weekend" weekends.

What??? I don't know how to fish in anything less than a 40 MPH wind any more!

[bchris02]

Damon Lane is predicting a below average month for tornadoes.

Oklahoma springs have been quite active since 2010, with the exception of our quiet year in 2014. It really will not be that unusual at all, given the past several years, if this year ends up being on the quiet side. The state averages (23 tornadoes for May) factors in crazy years like 2013 and 2015 as well as unusually quiet years like 2005 and 2014. In the 2000s, there were a string of quieter years, lasting from roughly 2004 through 2007, that make this decade look like pandemonium in comparison. I hope a quiet season is what pans out.

[Bobby821]

Damon Lane is predicting a below average month for tornadoes.

Oklahoma springs have been quite active since 2010, with the exception of our quiet year in 2014. It really will not be that unusual at all, given the past several years, if this year ends up being on the quiet side. The state averages (23 tornadoes for May) factors in crazy years like 2013 and 2015 as well as unusually quiet years like 2005 and 2014. In the 2000s, there were a string of quieter years, lasting from roughly 2004 through 2007, that make this decade look like pandemonium in comparison. I hope a quiet season is what pans out.

Yeah, I wouldn't put too much stock into this prediction.

[Of Sound Mind]

Yeah, I wouldn't put too much stock into this prediction.

Why? Because it goes against your doomsday hopes and dreams?

[tfvc.org]

Is it just me or is it colder than usual, especially lows?

[FighttheGoodFight]

All night smoke this weekend is going to be pleasant. Going to sit on the back porch with the dog and relax by the heater just in case.

I hope everyone has a great weekend.

[TU 'cane]

All night smoke this weekend is going to be pleasant. Going to sit on the back porch with the dog and relax by the heater just in case.

I hope everyone has a great weekend.

Yea, I finally have a weekend to smoke some ribs and bologna. I'm excited.

[Roger S]

So to completely derail the weather thread....I took advantage of it and did this....

[SOONER8693]

So to completely derail the weather thread....I took advantage of it and did this....

A work of art.

[Eddie1]

That looks amazing.

[Anonymous.]

New week, new storms. Wednesday is a muddy setup. With likely early day convection out in the TX PH and across W OK. There is potential for these storms to be strong, and severe. But it could setup for a larger threat later that afternoon if clearing and re-destabilization can occur.

The current forecast track of the low favors a potential dry-slotting for C OK, so may not get much rain out of this if storms cannot hold together out of the TX PH. The entire system comes out Thursday evening and sags to the SE, giving potential heavy rain to NE OK.

This will setup for a cooler day on Friday, and another potentially beautiful weekend.

[Bobby821]

Looks like we will be finally transitioning into a more stormy typical May pattern of SW flow starting next week.. Stay tuned

[Anonymous.]

A cluster of storms will be coming out of NM and into the TX PH overnight. These will slowly decay as they slide northeast into W and NW OK. This early morning convection and cold-pool left behind will set the stage for potential evening development, or kill it completely.

If clearing and instability come back behind the early convection, we could see some supercell development from SW OK back up into the TX PH. Will watch closely tomorrow.

[Anonymous.]

Morning update: Severe threat increasing a bit for this evening. As I previously posted above, so far the exact scenario is playing out to encourage the development of supercell storms across SW OK and the eastern TX PH.

Dewpoints are already near 70F across much of the state. Providing massive fuel for anything that can develop later today. Obviously I will keep you updated throughout the day as to whether or not we see action.

[Roger S]

What time do you think things could fire up in Central Oklahoma.... I rolled my monster truck, all-terrain, raised garden bed under my porch when I left for work this morning after looking at radar but I'd like to have the wife roll it back out to get some sun, if there's going to be any, if it's safe.

[Anonymous.]

Central OK won't see action until this evening. Likely after dark.

[Roger S]

Central OK won't see action until this evening. Likely after dark.

Thanks... My vegetables appreciate the quick response!

[John1744]

https://youtu.be/jmGAQNMumvc

NWS Noon update

[Anonymous.]

A few smaller showers have developed across the state. These will not be significant.

On the other side of these showers, back to the SW - a potential dangerous situation is developing with clearing ahead of the boundary in southwest OK and NW TX. This is the area of concern for supercells.



Mesoscale Discussion 0684
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 PM CDT Wed May 10 2017

Areas affected...portions of the TX Low Rolling Plains...southeast
TX Panhandle...southwest and west-central OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 101914Z - 102015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Convective initiation is expected initially near a triple
point near the Caprock 50 miles northeast of Lubbock. Additional
storms are forecast to develop and intensify to severe levels.
Large to very large hail will be possible with the discrete
supercells. A tornado risk will probably maximize during the 23-02Z
period.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar/satellite imagery indicates initial storm
development is occurring near a triple point 50 miles northeast of
Lubbock on the Caprock. Subjective surface analysis delineates an
outflow boundary from the triple point northeast through southwest
OK. A bulging dryline extends south into the Pecos River Valley. A
reservoir of 64-69 degrees F dewpoints resides east of the dryline
and south of the outflow boundary. Heating into the middle 80s
southwest to the upper 70s farther northeast into parts of central
OK will result in 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and a very unstable boundary
layer. Strong southwesterly mid- to high-level flow associated with
an approaching upper jet streak will strongly favor supercells (some
supercell splitting expected) atop generally modest low-level shear.


Very large CAPE in the hail growth layer (-10 to -30 degrees C) and
ample lofting of hydrometeors imply very large to giant hail (2-3.5
inches in diameter) is possible with the most intense supercells.
The risk for a tornado will probably be most favorable in a corridor
near the modifying outflow boundary. A strengthening in low-level
flow is expected towards the early evening and a corresponding
enlargement in the hodograph is forecast (0-1 km SRH 100-200 m2/s2)
from a minimum in hodograph size around 21Z.

Short-term models suggest isolated to widely scattered supercells
evolving and moving northeast into southwest OK from northwest TX.
Additional more isolated activity is possible farther northeast
along the outflow boundary in OK per models.

..Smith/Guyer.. 05/10/2017