General Weather Discussion - October 2014

[venture]

Live Chat @ Weather Spotlight | NWS Norman (OUN) | Storm Prediction Center | Mesonet | West TX Mesonet | NWS OUN Fire Weather | Road Conditions

Current Conditions
[hr][/hr]

Air Temperature	Dewpoint	Winds	Rainfall Last 24 Hours

[hr][/hr]

Advisory Table	NWS Norman Warning Area	NWS Tulsa Warning Area
Tornado Warning Tornado Watch Severe T-Storm Warning Severe T-Storm Watch Blizzard Warning Blizzard Watch Winter Storm Warning Winter Storm Watch Ice Storm Warning Red Flag Warning Winter Weather Advisory Wind Chill Advisory Wind Chill Warning Freezing Rain Advisory

Other Color Meanings: Web-Based Watch/Warning/Advisory Map Colors - NOAA's National Weather Service

[hr][/hr]

Radar & Satellite for Oklahoma[hr][/hr]

[hr][/hr]Severe Weather Outlooks & Products
[hr][/hr]

Day 1 (Today) Outlook	Day 2 (Tomorrow) Outlook	Day 3 Outlook	Outlook for Days 4 through 8

[hr][/hr]

National Advisory Map	SPC Mesoscale Discussions (MCD or MD)	Regional Live Lightning Image
	SPC Watches

Additional information is always available via: http://www.weatherspotlight.com/ Including the side-by-side model comparisons per run time. Lightning image is © Blitzortung.org. Mesonet maps are all © of the Oklahoma Mesonet / OU Board of Regents.

[venture]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1794
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1000 AM CDT THU OCT 02 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NERN OK / SERN KS / SWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY

VALID 021500Z - 021730Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS
POTENTIALLY CAPABLE OF AN ISOLD LARGE HAIL THREAT THIS MORNING.
STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND A GREATER SEVERE THREAT IN THE FORM
OF ISOLD LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS IS ANTICIPATED. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS A PORTION OF THE
AREA BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING EWD THROUGH THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING WITH THIS
FEATURE FORECAST OVER CNTRL OK BY LATE AFTERNOON. INCREASING
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AND DIURNAL
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL FOSTER A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND THE TRANSITION FROM SUB-SEVERE STORMS
DURING THE MID-MORNING TO ISOLD SEVERE BY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. VEERING AND STRENGTHENING FLOW WITH HEIGHT PER
KTLX/KINX/KSRX VAD DATA WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES
INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND SMALL SCALE BOWS. THE INITIAL ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY REMAIN NON-LINEAR AND POSE PRIMARILY AN ISOLD LARGE HAIL
RISK AND LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND STORMS BECOME SURFACE-BASED.
MODELS SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WITH A
COALESCING OF STORMS INTO A LINEAR CONFIGURATION ALONG THE FRONT
WITH TIME BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

..SMITH/MEAD.. 10/02/2014


ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...OUN...

[BG918]

I was looking at the long range GFS models this morning and it shows a potentially significant system coming through the southern plains Friday-Sunday 10/10-12. Something to watch since it's OU/TX weekend.

[venture]

[Bunty]

Stillwater got some rain and thunder early this morning, provided you lived on the right side of town. I got .14", while the far west and north sides got zero. The Tulsa area from strong storms this afternoon has gotten over an inch.

[Anonymous.]

GFS still bringing tropical system Simon up from the Baja and into the southern plains around the 9th-10th time frame. However, we all know what happened last time it looked like a system like this was going to pay us a visit.

Right now it appears to be decently significant in the forecast. As it stands right now, we will have the moisture and heat in place to not only produce heavy tropical rainfalls, but maybe some non-traditional severe weather.

[adaniel]

Not sure where to put this, but DFW got SLAMMED last night with storms. Quite a bit of wind damage in Arlington and NE Dallas. At one point there was about 200K people without power, including yours truly. Between this and the whole ebola outbreak, God is clearly upset with someone here LOL.

I was surprised how flat footed some of the meterologists were before these hit. Most channels predicted 30% or less chance of rain, much less a high-wind/squall line type event.

[bradh]

Not sure where to put this, but DFW got SLAMMED last night with storms. Quite a bit of wind damage in Arlington and NE Dallas. At one point there was about 200K people without power, including yours truly. Between this and the whole ebola outbreak, God is clearly upset with someone here LOL.

I was surprised how flat footed some of the meterologists were before these hit. Most channels predicted 30% or less chance of rain, much less a high-wind/squall line type event.

Was Rick Mitchell one of them?

[LakeEffect]

Not sure where to put this, but DFW got SLAMMED last night with storms. Quite a bit of wind damage in Arlington and NE Dallas. At one point there was about 200K people without power, including yours truly. Between this and the whole ebola outbreak, God is clearly upset with someone here LOL.

I was surprised how flat footed some of the meterologists were before these hit. Most channels predicted 30% or less chance of rain, much less a high-wind/squall line type event.

From NBC DFW: https://twitter.com/NBCDFWWeather/st...03093895454721

"#Severe storms possible this afternoon. 4-6pm for #DFW. 6-8pm east. Large hail/damaging winds are primary threats." Can't tell exact time they sent that Tweet... but they sent it.

Rick Mitchell sent this tweet earlier in the day: "Dust the rust off of your svr wx procedures, you'll need them today. Strong to svr storms this aft/eve. RM #dfwwx"

https://twitter.com/RickMitchellWX/s...76338426417152

[bchris02]

When you don't live in tornado alley, you aren't near as weather aware so severe weather can hit you by surprise. It happened to me a few times when living in other places. OKC is lucky to have such in depth weather coverage. Nowhere else has the kind of coverage they have here. The downside is the hype on the news stations here can create severe weather anxiety especially if you aren't used to it.

[Anonymous.]

They were also obviously under a SVR Watch last night until 9pm. Local meteorologists are pretty pointless if you just pay attention to the SPC and your local area NWS office.

[adaniel]

From NBC DFW: https://twitter.com/NBCDFWWeather/st...03093895454721

"#Severe storms possible this afternoon. 4-6pm for #DFW. 6-8pm east. Large hail/damaging winds are primary threats." Can't tell exact time they sent that Tweet... but they sent it.

Rick Mitchell sent this tweet earlier in the day: "Dust the rust off of your svr wx procedures, you'll need them today. Strong to svr storms this aft/eve. RM #dfwwx"

https://twitter.com/RickMitchellWX/s...76338426417152

I guess I need to change weather guys. Rick Mitchell is always spot on but the NBC affilate he is on tends to be more Ft Worth-centric so I don't watch as often.

The dudes on the ABC and Fox stations down here are worthless. From what I saw streaming off my phone the guy on ABC admitted they underestimated things. OKC is blessed to have much better meteorologists.

[venture]

All dependent on Hurricane Simon in the Pacific moving up over us this coming Thursday.

[Bunty]

All dependent on Hurricane Simon in the Pacific moving up over us this coming Thursday.

But hurricanes originating in the Pacific are supposed to be called typhoons, not hurricanes. Do you have good reason to relate as to why it is wrong to call Simon a typhoon?

[ljbab728]

But hurricanes originating in the Pacific are supposed to be called typhoons, not hurricanes. Do you have good reason to relate as to why it is wrong to call Simon a typhoon?

They are only called typhoons in the western Pacific.

http://www.wnct.com/story/23912318/t...the-difference

In the Atlantic Basin, tropical systems with sustained winds of 74 MPH or higher are called hurricanes. It's the same for storms in the eastern Pacific Ocean. However, in the northwestern Pacific Ocean (west of the International Date Line), a system with the same type of tropical characteristics is not called a hurricane. It's called a typhoon.

[venture]

But hurricanes originating in the Pacific are supposed to be called typhoons, not hurricanes. Do you have good reason to relate as to why it is wrong to call Simon a typhoon?

It is a "hurricane" in the Atlantic, Eastern and Central Pacific. Western Pacific is a Tyhpoon as LJ points out. Indian Ocean they are Cyclones.

[John1744]

You guys who haven't done it when you hear about another state having severe weather look up their news station web site. They usually they have a streaming video solution, and just watch their severe storm coverage for a while. It amazes me how low tech they are. Even Arkansas which sees a good amount of severe weather, I was watching a station there earlier this year and they were in a tornado warning and the only way they knew there was a tornado was the radar indicated rotation and a local police officer had called in that there were powerlines down on one of his patrol routes. The entire hour long stream was just one guy standing in front of a radar on a TV tracking the storm. There were no chasers with live video, no one like Val to throw to, no helicopters, nothing. I felt terrible because the people in the path only knew that a bad storm with the potential for a tornado was coming for them. Here we generally know what corner of the street a tornado is on!

I'm so thankful for our meteorologists and technology and the NWS being here. It definitely makes me feel much better living in a state with severe weather potential.

[Anonymous.]

Yup. It is amazing how the local media covers storms here. Severe storms approaching C OK is like police chases in LA. Everyone wants to watch.

[Anonymous.]

By the way, there is a fast moving line of storms moving into OKC metro right now.

One of the storms out along I-40 is looking interesting, it is currently severe. Large hail right now, but it is rotating. This storm is headed towards Hinton, right now.

[venture]

Here is the line of severe storms Anon is talking about...

[venture]

Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
1107 pm cdt sun oct 5 2014


the national weather service in norman has issued a


* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Northwestern mcclain county in central oklahoma...
Southwestern oklahoma county in central oklahoma...
Northeastern grady county in central oklahoma...
Northwestern cleveland county in central oklahoma...
Southeastern canadian county in central oklahoma...


* until 1145 pm cdt


* at 1107 pm cdt...severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 7 miles northwest of the village to near oklahoma
city to 5 miles southwest of piedmont...moving southeast at 35 mph.


Hazard...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.


Source...trained weather spotters.

[Urbanized]

You guys who haven't done it when you hear about another state having severe weather look up their news station web site... ...I felt terrible because the people in the path only knew that a bad storm with the potential for a tornado was coming for them. Here we generally know what corner of the street a tornado is on!

I'm so thankful for our meteorologists and technology and the NWS being here. It definitely makes me feel much better living in a state with severe weather potential.

Try actually being in their market with severe weather going down, and being accustomed to our own coverage. A couple of times I have been in Arkansas and Missouri during severe weather outbreaks, and flying blind via their inadequate coverage is no bueno.

I see a lot of out-of-state and even international visitors during severe weather season in OKC, and I'm alternately horrified and tickled at their reactions when - for instance - the sirens go off. They are all convinced death is imminent, and have to be talked off of the ledge. I always try to grab a few and take them to a TV showing a live broadcast and then explain what is happening using the radar maps shown, the updates from chasers, etc. I'll try to explain when a storm is moving through Piedmont tracking NE, for instance, that there is zero threat to downtown OKC. Sometimes it works; sometimes they are still inconsolable.

But the first time I was ever in another market and saw the crappy forecasting/chasing that they live with was the first time I ever really understood what it was like to be one of those visitors to OKC who have absolutely no clue what's going on when severe weather is going down. No thank you.

[venture]

Rain this week looks up in the air. NAM is keeping up pretty dry through Thursday, while the GFS still wants to bring some moisture in. GFS though keeps most of the moisture with Simon well north, but brings it in with a front on Friday. Some lingering stuff on Saturday and then drying out. Next front for the following Tuesday the 14th, but right now looks dry for Central and West. One side note with that, is around the same period GFS has really focused on bringing a strong tropical system into Florida on the 15th. That front could be a major player in determining where that system goes...if it forms.

[SoonerDave]

Rain this week looks up in the air.

uhhmm....until it hits the ground, isn't that always the case, Ven?

Sorry, read that and couldn't resist the friendly jab

Just please keep the drive to Dallas this Friday afternoon sane for me

[venture]

uhhmm....until it hits the ground, isn't that always the case, Ven?

Sorry, read that and couldn't resist the friendly jab

Just please keep the drive to Dallas this Friday afternoon sane for me

LOL of course. As soon as I typed that I knew I was setting myself up...but I left it anyway.