General Weather Discussion - June 2014

[venture]

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[venture]

Slight Risk (NW OK) for the first day of June, so I'll put this in the new June thread.

...CNTRL PLAINS INTO A SMALL PART OF THE SRN PLAINS...

A FEW STORMS MAY BE ONGOING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS EARLY
SUNDAY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. FARTHER SOUTH IN THE
WARM SECTOR...SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE
RATES ALONG WRN EDGE OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER THE CNTRL AND
SRN HIGH PLAINS WITH 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE LIKELY AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
EJECTING IMPULSES AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEE TROUGH SHOULD
EVENTUALLY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON AS
THE CAP WEAKENS OVER THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. OTHER STORMS MAY
INTENSIFY ACROSS SD IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT. INCREASING HEIGHT
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
VERTICAL SHEAR STRENGTHENING TO 40 KT...SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE INITIAL PRIMARY
THREAT...BUT AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS...STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO MCSS
WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND DURING THE EVENING.

[Anonymous.]

Last week's slow mover is coming back for more. Eastern half of OK chance of catching random storms/showers this afternoon, still.

[venture]

Slight Risk continues for NW OK with a hatched 15% area for most of it, though parts of the PH and extreme NW OK are in a 30% hatched area. All modes possible.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA...AS
WELL AS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL TRAVEL EASTWARD ACROSS NEBRASKA
AND KANSAS OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS.

...SYNOPSIS...
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO RIPPLE EWD ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS WITHIN AN OTHERWISE MODEST WLY FLOW
REGIME. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN DURING THE DAY
CENTERED OVER WRN KS...WITH A BROAD AREA OF WARM MOIST AIR EXPANDING
NWD CREATING STRONG INSTABILITY. THE RESULT WILL BE SEVERAL ZONES OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE WITH MOST INTENSE
ACTIVITY ACROSS KS AND NEB.

ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED DAYTIME STORMS WILL AGAIN OCCUR FROM THE CNTRL
GULF COAST NWD ACROSS THE LOWER OH AND MS VALLEYS WITH RAIN.

...KS...NEB...OK/TX PANHANDLES...SD...
EARLY IN THE DAY...AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING
ALONG A DIFFUSE FRONT FROM SD INTO MN...AND AIDED BY EARLY WARM
ADVECTION WITH A SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET. THESE STORMS ARE UNLIKELY TO BE
SEVERE...BUT OUTFLOW FROM THIS ACTIVITY MAY REINFORCE THE BOUNDARY.
CONVERGENCE WILL ALSO INCREASE ALONG A SWD MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS
WRN NEB AND S CNTRL SD BY LATE AFTERNOON WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE
MAXIMIZED. WIND PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS
AND/OR CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS AS 40+ KT MIDLEVEL FLOW EMERGES.

TO THE S...THE MOST WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE FOCUSED FROM
SWRN NEB ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL KS...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY INTO
THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. HERE...HEATING ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL LEAD TO
STRONG INSTABILITY...WITH SHEAR PROFILES INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY.
VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL RESULT IN EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT. VERY LARGE HAIL IS
LIKELY...ALONG WITH DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS. THE MOST INTENSE
SUPERCELLS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF TORNADOES DESPITE RELATIVELY HIGH
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS. STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO
ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS FUELED BY A 40-50 KT SLY LOW LEVEL
JET AS THEY TRAVEL EWD ACROSS KS AND NEB OVERNIGHT. MODELS ALSO
INDICATE STRONG CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK SIGNALS FURTHER SUGGESTING A
NOCTURNAL MCS ACROSS NEB/KS.

[venture]

Storm Outlook...

One thing to point out...we are getting to the time of the year with instability values (CAPE) can get off the charts pretty easily but other factors like moisture quality and such will help to offset those. So while a few of the days coming up CAPE values will probably top 4000 j/kg...it isn't the end of the world.

Today - Isolated storms again over the eastern half of OK. Nothing major at all, just enough to mess up your clean car if you get under one.

Tomorrow - Slight risk NW OK. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes possible...though will be few and far between. Dewpoint/Temp spreads are going to be pretty high but the strongest storms could still spin something up. Storms may may NC OK, but hard to say if they will last that long. Complex will likely be on going up in KS and NE so might get something on the southern edge from that.

Monday - Early some left overs from the Sunday complex in NE OK. Later in the day...Stray storm in NC OK, nothing widespread. Anything that does pop could be briefly severe.

Tuesday - Dry.

Weds/Thurs - Maybe some late storms in NC / NE OK on Weds into early Thursday. Some could be severe. These will move out east through the first part of Thursday. Late Thursday could see more storms fire in W OK (west of I-35). They will probably fade just after dark. Another complex possible in KS moving SE over NE OK overnight into Friday. Thursday storms could be severe as well.

Friday - Storms NE early with some lingering through the day out there. New activity could fire late Friday over SW OK and move NE overnight into C OK. Severe threat remains.

Saturday 7th - Scattered showers/storms from Friday activity remaining. Could see new activity fire in SW OK by Saturday afternoon and move into C OK by late afternoon. Isolated storms over Eastern OK, but nothing really organized.

Sunday 8th - Slight chance of a storm in SW OK during the afternoon, but main attention will be to the NW as a complex forms over CO/KS (welcome to MCS season and the NW Flow). Potential for very heavy rain and severe weather as the complex dives south.

Monday 9th - Overnight MCS will move over much of W & C OK through the first half of Monday. Exact coverage will depend on how large it gets. QPF numbers hint are areas north of I-44/US62 in SW OK and west of I-35 could get well over an inch of rain from the system. Some areas in far NW OK could see 3-4 inches of rain if this verifies (I'm not holding my breath). The MCS will slowly die out Monday over SW OK.

[venture]

Slight Risk has been extending to include parts of Central Oklahoma today.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 AM CDT SUN JUN 01 2014

VALID 011630Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS
INTO THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT LOCATIONS FROM THE MIDDLE
MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS...THOUGH A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE.

...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY...
A COMPLEX PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE ROCKIES
INTO THE PLAINS...AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER THE NRN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES MOVES EWD ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT.
ACTIVE CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED THROUGH THE MORNING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH A MORE PERSISTENT
CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS OVER PARTS OF WRN/CENTRAL NEB WHERE LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE AT THE NOSE OF A SLY LOW LEVEL
JET HAS AIDED SYSTEM MAINTENANCE. THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING STORMS
HAVE CREATED MULTIPLE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES FROM SRN MN/NWRN IA SWWD
INTO SWRN NEB/NERN CO WHICH WILL LIKELY PROVIDE FOCUS REGIONS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION THIS AFTERNOON.

12Z AREA SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM THE ROCKIES EWD
INTO THE PLAINS OVERLAYING A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SURFACE DEW
POINTS NEAR 60 OVER WRN KS/ERN CO AND INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S OVER
ERN PARTS OF NEB AND KS. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS LIMITED CLOUDS OVER
MUCH OF IA AND ERN NEB WHERE STRONG DIABATIC HEATING IS OCCURRING
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE CENTRAL NEB CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...WITH ADDITIONAL
STRONGER HEATING EXPECTED FROM WRN/SOUTH CENTRAL KS INTO ERN CO
WHERE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ARE NOTED. DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG ACROSS THESE AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON.

CURRENT STRONGER STORMS OVER CENTRAL NEB ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
AS THEY MOVE EWD THIS AFTERNOON INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THIS
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP SWD INTO KS AS WELL AS THE CAP WEAKENS
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...WITH CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS INDICATING
UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A LINEAR SYSTEM WITH EMBEDDED BOWING STRUCTURES.
THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE EWD INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH NOCTURNAL QLCS MAINTENANCE MOST LIKELY INTO PARTS OF
ERN KS IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET OVER OK/KS.
INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING MID LEVEL
WIND CORE WILL ENHANCE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS EXPECTED WITH STRONGER STORMS. THE PRIMARY HAIL THREAT IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR TO DURING THE EARLY PHASES OF THE STORM LIFE-CYCLES
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A TRANSITION TO AN INCREASING WIND THREAT AS A
MORE LINEAR STRUCTURE DEVELOPS WITH TIME. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH MORE DISCRETE STORM STRUCTURES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

ADDITIONAL DISCRETE SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM SERN
WY AND ERN CO BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EWD/SEWD INTO PARTS OF WRN KS
DURING THE EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER SUNSET.

...SRN PLAINS...
A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PARTS OF MAINLY NRN OK LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ACTIVITY SPREAD/DEVELOPS SEWD FROM KS.
THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE ERN
TX PANHANDLE WHERE A STRONGER CAP IS IN PLACE. SEVERAL
CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS INDICATE ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THIS AREA WITH ACTIVITY POSSIBLY MOVING
SEWD INTO WRN OK BEFORE WEAKENING. GIVEN STRONG
INSTABILITY/VERTICAL SHEAR ANY SUSTAINED UPDRAFT WILL LIKELY ATTAIN
SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS.

..WEISS/DEAN.. 06/01/2014

[venture]

Here is what the 17Z HRRR is hinting at.



If we see the complex turn SE a bit sooner, then the Metro could see some storms later tonight. Slight risk also covers much of W OK in case something pops there.

[venture]

Updated SPC Outlook...

...OK/TX PANHANDLES INTO NWRN OK...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FORM UPSTREAM INTO ERN CO WITH MORE
VIGOROUS ACTIVITY EXPECTED LATER TODAY INTO WRN KS. A ROBUST SLY
LOW-LEVEL JET...COUPLED WITH STRONG DESTABILIZATION AND NW-SE
ORIENTED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTORS SUGGESTS STORMS WILL
TURN/PROPAGATE SEWD INTO OK LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
NOCTURNAL CAPPING WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR AS TO HOW FAR S STORMS
CAN GET...BUT THE AREA N OF I-40 AND WEST OF I-35 APPEARS TO HAVE
THE GREATEST THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

[venture]

Streaming radar will be up in the chat room today. Having to work tonight, but will monitor from there.

[mblackwell]

Is that predicting a progression of storms moving from NW to SE?

Edit: I decided to read your previous post. Which answered my question. I am a doofus.

[venture]

New cells popping the panhandles moving into new OK soon.

[venture]

Watch is up for northern OK.

[bchris02]

The local meteorologists are starting to hype this weekend. Given how so far this year they have hyped events that turned out to be nothing I am not too worried about it yet. That said, what does the tornado threat look like? Should I start incorporating it into my plans for this weekend?

[zookeeper]

The local meteorologists are starting to hype this weekend. Given how so far this year they have hyped events that turned out to be nothing I am not too worried about it yet. That said, what does the tornado threat look like? Should I start incorporating it into my plans for this weekend?

All I see at the major weather sites (WC, Accuweather, NWS) is anywhere from a 20-40% chance of storms. They say Friday and Sunday could be worst for stormy weather if we get it, maybe a respite on Saturday. Who knows? It's just Sunday night.

[Dessert Fox]

The local meteorologists are starting to hype this weekend. Given how so far this year they have hyped events that turned out to be nothing I am not too worried about it yet. That said, what does the tornado threat look like? Should I start incorporating it into my plans for this weekend?

I haven't seen any hype from KFOR or KWTV.

[Bunty]

It looks like the line of storms will miss Oklahoma City with the south end of it brushing Stillwater.

Special Weather Statement - Payne (Oklahoma)

Updated: Mon Jun-02-14 12:33am CDT
Effective: Mon Jun-02-14 12:33am CDT
Expires: Mon Jun-02-14 01:00am CDT
Severity: Minor
Urgency: Expected
Certainty: Observed
Status: Actual
Type: Alert
Category: Met
Areas affected: Noble; Payne

Instructions: Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening weather conditions.

Message summary: ...significant weather advisory for northwestern payne and noble counties until 100 am cdt...
At 1230 am cdt...the leading edge of a strong thunderstorm extended from 8 miles southwest of perry to billings...moving east at 35 mph. Hazards include...
Wind gusts to 40 mph...
Minor flooding in areas of poor drainage...
Locations impacted include...
Stillwater...perry...morrison...red rock...marland...sooner lake...
Lake carl blackwell...lake mcmurtry and ceres.

[Bunty]

Ah, finally, the very loud and healthy sound from nearby thunder and lightening, rather than the distant thunder noise from an earthquake!

[venture]

Looks like some pretty stout winds heaidng for the area between Stillwater and Perkins (not sure where you are Bunty). New cells popping up across the Western metro area will probably bring some quick downpours and some pretty neat lightning. Storm down well south of Central OK was putting on a good light show for my drive home tonight.

[Bunty]

In Stillwater with heavy rain, .57 of it, so far. Looks like more coming.

Special Weather Statement - Payne (Oklahoma)
Updated: Mon Jun-02-14 02:12am CDT
Effective: Mon Jun-02-14 02:12am CDT
Expires: Mon Jun-02-14 02:45am CDT

Severity: Minor
Urgency: Expected
Certainty: Observed

Status: Actual
Type: Alert
Category: Met
Areas affected: Logan; Noble; Payne

Instructions: Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening weather conditions.

Message summary: ...significant weather advisory for northeastern logan...western payne and south central noble counties until 245 am cdt...
At 209 am cdt...a strong thunderstorm was located 4 miles east of orlando...moving east at 35 mph. Hazards include...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Locations impacted include...
Stillwater...perkins...langston...coyle...mulhall. ..orlando...lake carl blackwell and lake mcmurtry.

[Bunty]

Severe Thunderstorm Warning - Payne (Oklahoma)
Updated: Mon Jun-02-14 02:20am CDT
Effective: Mon Jun-02-14 02:20am CDT
Expires: Mon Jun-02-14 03:00am CDT

Severity: Severe
Urgency: Immediate
Certainty: Observed

Status: Actual
Type: Alert
Category: Met
Areas affected: Payne

Instructions: For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm...and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

Message summary: The national weather service in norman has issued a
* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Southwestern payne county in central oklahoma...
* until 300 am cdt
* at 219 am cdt...a severe thunderstorm was located near lake carl blackwell...moving southeast at 35 mph. Hazard...golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. Source...radar indicated. Impact...people and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail damage to roofs...siding...windows and vehicles. Expect wind damage to roofs...siding and trees.
* locations impacted include...
Stillwater...perkins...ripley and lake carl blackwell.
...1.75in wind...60mph

[venture]

Some really strong winds moving into the north side of Perkins now.

[Bunty]

The downpour slacking off in Stillwater now. No hail or high wind came with it. Rainfall amount here has just gone over 1.5". More rain, likely heavy, on the way.

[Plutonic Panda]

Is any coming to OKC?

[Bunty]

Is any coming to OKC?

It could, if the system can take a strong enough dip to the south as it appears to be doing. But overnight there's only a 50% of thunderstorms in Oklahoma City. Compare that with a 100% chance of heavy rain in Stillwater where over 2" of rain has fallen. Heavy rain for Enid, too, where over 3" has fallen.

[venture]

Backend of the MCS starting to slide south a bit more now. Should bring some brief heavy rain and a few decent wind gusts as it comes through.