El Nino/La Nina Impacts & Discussion

[venture]

Discussion on El Nino and La Nina and its impacts on Oklahoma. Also will cover current conditions on which pattern we have or will be going into.

[Klop]

Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog : The 360-degree Rainbow | Weather Underground

This is quite a long and in-depth read on the El Nino, but very informative. Although, I think my head is hurting now. I kept thinking where is the summary, so I posted the summary below. Lol

"BOTTOM LINE: The Pacific Ocean is now in a state that could reconstruct the base state of the Pacific, favoring an El Niño to develop later this Spring. That being said, it’s not a locked in solution yet as we need to monitor the atmosphere for future westerly wind bursts to help push the Western Pacific Warm Pool along."

[Easy180]

Looking more likely

El Nino Looking More Likely; Could Arrive As Soon As Early Summer, Forecasters Find

[PennyQuilts]

If that brings rain, I'm all for it.

[Plutonic Panda]

interesting article saying it could rival the 1997 one. I honestly don't remember it and its impact, so I'm not sure if was truly significant or not

Satellite Observations Show El Niño Coming — And It Could Be The Worst In Decades

Data from ocean-observing satellites and other ocean sensors indicate that El Niño conditions appear to be developing in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Conditions in May 2014 bear some similarities to those of May 1997, a year that brought one of the most potent El Niño events of the 20th century.

During an El Niño, easterly trade winds in the Pacific falter and allow giant waves of warm water — known as Kelvin waves — to drift across from the western Pacific toward South America. Surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific become significantly warmer than normal, altering weather patterns and affecting fisheries along the west coasts of the Americas. El Niño also can have a significant influence on weather and climate far from the tropics.

The maps above show the ten-day average of sea surface height centered on May 2, 1997 (left), and May 3, 2014. Shades of red and orange indicate where the water is warmer and above normal sea level. Shades of blue-green show where sea level and temperatures are lower than average. Normal sea-level conditions appear in white. The 1997 map was assembled from data collected by the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite, while the 2014 data comes from the Ocean Surface Topography Mission/Jason 2 satellite.

The height of the sea surface is a good indicator of the amount of heat stored in the water. As the ocean warms, the surface rises; as it cools, its falls. This is due to thermal expansion and contraction; the molecules in warmer water are farther apart than in cooler water. Above-normal sea surface heights in the equatorial Pacific indicate El Niño conditions, while below-normal heights indicate La Niña. (You can see an example of La Niña here and El Niño here.)

"What we are now seeing in the tropical Pacific Ocean looks similar to conditions in early 1997," said Eric Lindstrom, oceanography program manager at NASA headquarters. "If this continues, we could be looking at a major El Niño this fall. But there are no guarantees." Observations from a network of sensors within the Pacific Ocean support the satellite view, showing a deep pool of warm water that has been sliding eastward since January.

The years 1997–98 brought El Niño out of the scientific literature and onto the front pages and evening newscasts. It was one of the strongest El Niño events observed, with extreme weather impacts on several continents. North America had one of its warmest and wettest winters on record, particularly in California and Florida. Peru, Mexico, and the rest of Central and South America endured devastating rainstorms and flooding. Indonesia and parts of Asia saw disastrous droughts.



Read more: Is El Niño Developing? : Image of the Day

[bchris02]

I was living in the upper Midwest at the time and I remember it was blamed for unusually heavy snowstorms that year. That was also a cool, wet summer if I remember correctly. Not sure how it will effect Oklahoma other than I know La Nina generally brings a stronger, more intense "Ring of Fire" during the summer months while El Nino can bring a wetter summer.

[Plutonic Panda]

Another post made me think of this.... what is the situation of the El Nino? It obvious developed, but is it strong? Could we see a cold snowy winter this year? That'd be pretty nice.

[venture]

It is there, but it is somewhat of a hybrid El Nino. The Western Pacific isn't really cool at all like you normally would see in a classic El Nino. So impacts on the winter aren't really going to be clear cut.