June '10 Weather Discussion

[venture]

Going to get this one going using the forecast discussion from OUN this morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
404 AM CDT FRI MAY 28 2010

.DISCUSSION...
RELATIVELY QUIET PATTERN PREVAILS OVER THE NEXT WEEK WITH MOST IF
NOT ALL OF THE MID-UPPER FORCING REMAINING TO OUR NW N OR E. UPPER
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE FROM BIG BEND AREA TO UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH
SAT... MINIMIZING CONVECTIVE CHANCES DESPITE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND
RELATIVELY WEAKLY-CAPPED AIR MASS. BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN/STORMS
FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS SFC COLD FRONT PROVIDES A LOW-
LEVEL FOCUS. UPPER FLOW TO REMAIN WEAK BUT WINDS ALOFT WILL
INCREASE ENOUGH S OF THE N-PLAINS UPPER TROUGH TO ENHANCE DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR AND POSSIBLY SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS LATE SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. CONTINUED WARM FOR LATE MAY AND EARLY JUNE
GIVEN THE GENERAL PREVALENCE OF RIDGING ALOFT. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS OF A POSSIBLE TRANSITION TO A MORE WNW OR NW FLOW
TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK... BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
THAT FAR OUT TO INTRODUCE RAIN OR CONVECTIVE CHANCES AT THIS TIME.

What this means, as we move into a NW flow, we'll start seeing the chance of storm complexes forming in CO/KS and race S to SE across the state.

[venture]

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT TUE JUN 01 2010

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WED/WED NIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE
S CNTRL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY THROUGH THE UPR OHIO VALLEY/LWR
GREAT LAKES REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT A STRONG ZONAL PACIFIC JET WILL BEGIN TO NOSE
INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
DOWNSTREAM...MODESTLY STRONG...GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST WITHIN A BELT ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL TIER OF THE
U.S...TO THE SOUTH OF A LINGERING HIGHER LATITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN.
WITHIN THIS REGIME...AT LEAST A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES APPEAR
LIKELY TO CONTINUE MIGRATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THIS OCCURS...TO THE SOUTH OF A
BROAD EASTERN CANADIAN CLOSED LOW...UPPER FLOW WILL TEND TO BECOME
BROADLY CYCLONIC...AND A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO
ADVANCE SOUTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST...THE GREAT LAKES
AND UPPER MIDWEST BY EARLY THURSDAY.

...S CNTRL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY THRU LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE WILL BE IN THE
PROCESS OF MIGRATING EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONSIDERABLE MODEL DATA...INCLUDING VARIOUS
HIGH RESOLUTION WRF AND NCEP SREF...ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY EXTENSIVE...PROBABLY WEAKENING... CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY...WITH A LARGE CONGLOMERATE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ADVANCING WELL SOUTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT BEFORE STALLING SOMEWHERE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. THE
POTENTIAL STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE IS A SOURCE OF
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY...AND IT MIGHT NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
THIS COULD IMPACT A LARGE PORTION OF THE CURRENT SLIGHT RISK AREA.
HOWEVER...THE AIR MASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
SHOULD REMAIN VERY MOIST AND POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE WITH GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING THAT MID 60S TO NEAR 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL
CONTRIBUTE MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 2000-3000+ J/KG WITH
HEATING...BENEATH ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR ADVECTING EAST
NORTHEASTWARD ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE WESTERLIES.

IT CURRENTLY SEEMS MOST PROBABLE THAT...THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING...THE MAIN SURFACE FRONT WILL EXTEND IN QUASI-STATIONARY
FASHION ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...BEFORE CURVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE TRAILING/WESTERN FLANK OF THE CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW PROBABLY WILL STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND
ILLINOIS INTO THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS
NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI.

IF CONVECTION/CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW DOES NOT INTERFERE WITH
DESTABILIZATION IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES...FORCING/SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
SIGNIFICANT UPPER IMPULSE APPEARS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AN
EVOLVING STORM CLUSTER BY LATE MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. IF THIS OCCURS...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP
EASTWARD ACROSS AND TO THE LEE OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A SWATH
OF DAMAGING WINDS...AIDED BY 30-50 KT MEAN WIND FIELDS.

FARTHER WEST...LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW FIELDS ARE PROGGED TO WEAKEN
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH UPSTREAM IMPULSES GENERALLY WEAKER.
HOWEVER...THE LIKELIHOOD OF MODERATE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION IS
MORE CERTAIN...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE OUTFLOW/FRONT INTERSECTION
...WHERE NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE INSTABILITY...LARGE-SCALE FORCING PROBABLY WILL
BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT THE EVOLUTION OF ANOTHER MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...WITH THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR
DOWNBURSTS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE COLD POOLS WITH DAMAGING
WIND POTENTIAL. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD ALONG
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WITH A CONTINUING
SEVERE RISK WEDNESDAY EVENING...BEFORE WEAKENING.

ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
SOUTH AND WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
CONCERNING THE DURATION AND EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY...DUE TO WEAK TO
MODEST FORCING AND GENERALLY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR.

..KERR.. 06/01/2010

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

[blangtang]

Hot!

[venture]

MCS has gone a lot farther east than expected.



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0837
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0239 AM CDT MON JUN 07 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN/SRN KS...NRN/WRN OK...ERN PANHANDLE OF
OK...EXTREME NERN PANHANDLE OF TX.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 277...

VALID 070739Z - 070915Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 277
CONTINUES.

INCREASINGLY WELL-ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND COLD POOL ARE EVIDENT
WITH SVR/FORWARD-PROPAGATING AND BOW-SHAPED MCS NOW MOVING SEWD
ABOUT 45 KT ACROSS W-CENTRAL/SW KS. ALTHOUGH REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY
SHOWS GUST FRONT A FEW MILES AHEAD OF EDGE OF HEAVIEST
REFLECTIVITIES...PRIND SVR POTENTIAL WILL NOT HALT AT KS/OK BORDER
AS MCS CROSSES AT AROUND 9Z. PROBABILITY IS INCREASING THAT NEW WW
WILL HAVE TO BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS WRN/NRN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL OK
WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR SO. EWD EXTENSION OF WW OVER PORTIONS S-CENTRAL
KS ALSO MAY BE REQUIRED...NOT ONLY FOR ERN FRINGES OF MOST PROBABLE
DAMAGING-WIND CORRIDOR...BUT ALSO FOR POTENTIAL OF SVR TSTMS WITH
LRG HAIL AND STG-SVR GUSTS IN WAA WING OF CONVECTION.
ACCORDINGLY...PER COORDINATION W/WFO DDC...STAFFORD/PRATT/BARBER
COUNTIES HAVE BEEN ADDED TO WW 277.

ALTHOUGH SIMPLE EXTRAPOLATION PROJECTS THIS COMPLEX AS FAR SE AS OKC
AREA BY 12Z...MOST INTENSE PORTION OF MCS MAY TURN SLIGHTLY
RIGHTWARD. SOME PREFERENTIAL MOTION/DEVELOPMENT OF MOST SVR PORTION
IS POSSIBLE ALONG LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY/BUOYANCY GRADIENT ANALYZED
ROUGHLY ON LINE FROM 30 E DDC...45 ENE GAG...TO BETWEEN CHK-FSI. IF
THIS OCCURS...WRN FRINGE OF MCS MAY AFFECT EXTREME NERN TX PANHANDLE
AND ERN OK PANHANDLE ALSO. INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT ALSO
IS EVIDENT WITH SEWD EXTENT DOWN THIS GRADIENT. SFC MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS WELL-DEFINED MOIST AXIS JUST W OF GRADIENT...ROUGHLY ALONG
LINE FROM ADM-HBR-HHF. THOUGH STRONGEST PART OF LLJ IS ANALYZED
FARTHER W ACROSS TX/OK PANHANDLES AND INTO SERN CO...30-40 KT SLY
850 MB WINDS ALONG ERN RIM OF LLJ STILL SUPPORT STORM-RELATIVE
INFLOW EXCEEDING 70 KT...WHEN ACCOUNTING FOR MCS MOTION.
THEREFORE...EXPECT VIGOROUS FORCED ASCENT TO LFC TO PERSIST WITH
THIS COMPLEX INTO OK...ALONG WITH SVR WIND POTENTIAL ALONG AND
WITHIN 30-40 NM BEHIND LEADING EDGE OF SLAB OF OUTFLOW. SINCE
TIMING OF MCS WEAKENING IS UNCERTAIN AFTER ACTIVITY MOVES INTO
OK...BREADTH OF POTENTIAL NEW WW IS STILL BEING DELIBERATED.

..EDWARDS.. 06/07/2010



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 278
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
305 AM CDT MON JUN 7 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING FROM 305 AM UNTIL 1000 AM CDT.

WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH
WIDELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL TO 1.0 INCH IN DIAMETER

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF GAGE OKLAHOMA TO 45 MILES NORTH OF BARTLESVILLE
OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 277...

DISCUSSION...WRN/CNTRL KS MCS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GENERALLY SSE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AREA VWP DATA INDICATE THAT SOME VEERING OF LLJ
HAS OCCURRED AHEAD OF SYSTEM. THIS LIKELY EXPLAINS...IN
PART...RECENT INCREASE IN SCTD STORMS AHEAD OF MCS OVER S CNTRL KS.
MERGING OF FORWARD-PROPAGATING SEGMENTS OF MCS WITH THESE SCTD
STORMS MAY SUPPORT SWD EXTENSION OF SVR THREAT /MAINLY WIND/ INTO
NRN OK.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.
A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION
VECTOR 33030.

[Bunty]

Hot!

And so NOT HOT all over today as the mid 90s, or higher, forecasted didn't make it except in the panhandle and sw Oklahoma. Under clouds, much of northern Oklahoma can't get out of the 70's. The front didn't move much as a warm front as was thought. It will be interesting to see what the storms do tonight, if they form. Maybe they'll be further to the east and not effect as much of northern Oklahoma. It didn't include OKC, but the northeastern half of Oklahoma got rain last night or this morning.

[venture]

General Risk of Severe weather in areas of the state the next 3 days...


Storm Prediction Center Jun 12, 2010 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2010

VALID 121300Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT FROM THE
TX PANHANDLE/SW KS TO THE MID MS VALLEY...

...TX PANHANDLE INTO SW KS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
A BROAD CLOSED LOW HAS FORMED OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...WITH
A BELT OF 30-50 KT SSWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW EXTENDING OVER THE
SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE E OF THE LOW. AT THE SURFACE...A
COLD FRONT IS MOVING SWD ACROSS SE CO AND WRN/CENTRAL KS...AIDED BY
OUTFLOW FROM THE OVERNIGHT MCS IN NEB. THE SWD MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT/OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOW BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NRN TX
PANHANDLE INTO SW KS IN THE MERIDIONAL FLOW REGIME...AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE
FRONT. A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY FOR SUPERCELLS IS EXPECTED WHERE THE ERN FRINGE OF THE
STRONGER MID-UPPER FLOW OVERLAPS THE SURFACE FRONT AND THE NW EDGE
OF THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR /MLCAPE VALUES 2000-3500 J PER KG/.

THE INITIAL STORMS SHOULD BE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES. DEEP-LAYER
FLOW/SHEAR LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO STORM
INTERACTIONS AND UPSCALE GROWTH OF CONVECTION INTO ONE OR MORE
CLUSTERS IS EXPECTED BY LATE EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT FROM THE N/NE TX
PANHANDLE INTO WRN/CENTRAL KS. THE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WILL POSE
A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

...CENTRAL TX NNEWD TO CENTRAL/ERN OK THIS AFTERNOON...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BELT OF SOMEWHAT ENHANCED MIDLEVEL FLOW
WITH EMBEDDED SMALL VORTICITY CENTERS ALONG AN AXIS FROM DRT TO DFW
TO TUL. THE 5% WIND PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED INTO THIS
CORRIDOR TO REFLECT SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS WITH STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND SLIGHTLY ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO
THE GROUND.


Storm Prediction Center Jun 12, 2010 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1242 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2010

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE
MIDDLE MS VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROMINENT UPPER LOW OVER THE SRN GREAT BASIN WILL BEGIN TO EJECT ENE
AND MERGE WITH THE POLAR WESTERLIES BY LATE SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS
PROCESS...LOWER-AMPLITUDE IMPULSES WILL TRAVEL ALONG THE NRN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE. THESE FEATURES AND A
DIGGING NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SERVE TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE.

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING AT 12Z SUNDAY
FROM PARTS OF THE TX HIGH PLAINS TO IA. OUTFLOW FROM THIS ACTIVITY
WILL INFLUENCE THE PLACEMENT OF A BAROCLINIC ZONE AND SHORT-TERM
MODEL SUITE IS VARIED ON THE LOCATION...RENDERING A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST. MORE SRN SOLUTION OF THE 00Z NAM IS
PREFERRED...PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AS WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO RAIN INTO/REINFORCE AN ALREADY COLD AIR
MASS.

ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE PLAINS ALONG/S OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARIES WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WHERE MLCAPES WILL RANGE FROM 1500-2500 J/KG SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A MID-LEVEL JET STREAK AND ATTENDANT
MODEST HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR FROM THE TX
PANHANDLE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
ALTHOUGH STRONGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE FRONT...AT LEAST 30-40 KTS OF SWLY 0-6KM SHEAR WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY AS STORMS FIRST DEVELOP WITH LARGE HAIL AND
ONE OR TWO TORNADOES POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO
ORGANIZED CLUSTERS/LINES BY EVENING WITH AN ENE NIGHTTIME
FORWARD-PROPAGATION TOWARD NERN KS/NWRN MO/SERN NEB. STORMS ALONG
THE SRN FRINGE OF THE MCS WILL REMAIN SURFACE-BASED WITH DAMAGING
WINDS/HAIL. HOWEVER...A SIZABLE AMOUNT OF STORMS WILL BECOME
UNDERCUT/ELEVATED BY THE COLD FRONT OVER CNTRL/NRN KS WITH ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL. STORMS WILL ALSO TEND TO BACKBUILD SWWD ALONG/N OF THE
SURGING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND NWRN OK OVERNIGHT
WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL.

FARTHER S...ISOLATED AND DIURNALLY-ENHANCED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND IN THE
INCREASINGLY MOIST UPSLOPE ALONG THE RATON MESA/NE NM. THERE WILL
BE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT BRIEF SUPERCELLS WITH
LARGE HAIL. ACTIVITY WILL LARGELY DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING ACROSS
THE TX S PLAINS AS THE PRIMARY MASS CONVERGENCE SHIFTS INTO THE
CNTRL PLAINS.


Storm Prediction Center Jun 12, 2010 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2010

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SRN PLAINS TO THE
MIDDLE MS VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY PHASE WITH THE POLAR WESTERLIES
LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY GET LEFT BEHIND OVER THE NRN PLAINS
AS AN AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM WAVE DIGS TOWARD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES/NEW ENGLAND. THE BASE OF THE FORMER UPPER SYSTEM WILL
SLOWLY MIGRATE ACROSS THE PLAINS AS IT GLANCES OFF THE STRONG GULF
COAST RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT...AUGMENTED BY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...WILL EXTEND FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS NE INTO THE MIDDLE
MS VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL ONLY MOVE SLOWLY SWD AS IT BECOMES
ORIENTED PARALLEL WITH THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE... A NEW COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NERN STATES TROUGH WILL SETTLE SWD INTO NY
AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY...
AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
MONDAY...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN WHAT SHOULD BE A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE QUITE MOIST AND STRONG
HEATING ALONG SRN FRINGES OF MORNING STORMS/CLOUDS WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT
MARGINAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...AT LEAST 30-40
KTS OF WSW MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY SUPPORT BRIEF SUPERCELLS...
PARTICULARLY OVER W TX/SERN-CNTRL NM INTO WRN OK IN COMPARATIVELY
STRONGER INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES. OTHERWISE...AT LEAST ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED AS FAR E AS THE MIDDLE MS
VALLEY.

SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT...NOCTURNAL DEVELOPMENT OF A SLY
LOW-LEVEL JET AND A CONTINUAL FEED OF INSTABILITY INTO THE WRN SIDES
OF EVENING ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO A HEAVY RAINFALL/ISOLATED
SEVERE MCS SOMEWHERE FROM W TX NEWD INTO PARTS OF OK MONDAY NIGHT.

[venture]

Local office upgrade to the outlook area...




HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1210 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2010

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-131000-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WA****A-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1210 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...WESTERN AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA...AND PART OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK INCLUDES THE AREA WEST AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
PONCA CITY TO SHAWNEE TO ARDMORE IN OKLAHOMA...OVER TO HENRIETTA...
SEYMOUR...AND CROWELL IN TEXAS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 3 PM TO
12 AM.

IMPACTS...
HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE.
DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 MPH.
AND...ALTHOUGH TORNADOES ARE NOT THE PRIMARY HAZARD...ONE OR TWO
TORNADOES MAY OCCUR.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK MAY PERSIST LATER
INTO THE NIGHT OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.

DISCUSSION...
A VERY MOIST GULF AIR MASS WILL BE HEATED...RESULTING IN MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY THROUGHOUT THE REGION TODAY. ALTHOUGH A WARM CAP
WAS IN PLACE...THIS CAP IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A
MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL TRACK FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TOWARD CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST FORECAST TRENDS
SUGGEST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ANYWHERE FROM WESTERN NORTH TEXAS UP THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. ALTHOUGH STORMS WILL NOT BE NUMEROUS...EACH STORM
WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
YIELD DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THESE STORMS MAY
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND EVEN ONE OR TWO TORNADOES.
THESE STORMS...IF THEY DO FORM...WOULD LIKELY DIMINISH AFTER
DARK...AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST.

A MORE FOCUSED OR WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...
INCLUDING SEVERE WEATHER...IS EXPECTED ALONG A STALLED COLD FRONT
RUNNING FROM WESTERN KANSAS INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES.
AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN
SOUTHERN KANSAS. WITH TIME...THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OR PROPAGATE
INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. BY THE
TIME THE STORMS REACH OKLAHOMA...THEY MAY BECOME OUTFLOW
DOMINANT...WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. BRIEF TORNADOES...HOWEVER...WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE OVERNIGHT...THE INTERACTION
OF THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET MAY RESULT IN
CONTINUED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA WELL INTO THE NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER
RISK...THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A GREATER RISK OF HEAVY
RAINFALL.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SUNDAY JUN 13.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...70 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...50 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL REACH 97 TO 102 DEGREES. PEOPLE SHOULD
USE CAUTION TO AVOID HEAT STRESS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THE COLD FRONT OVER KANSAS WILL MOVE SOUTH AGAIN BEGINNING LATE
SUNDAY...AND WILL MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING.
THE FRONT AND ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PRODUCED BY THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES WILL SERVE TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY IN THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...PROVIDING
CONTINUED LIFT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT. THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY... AND OVER A BROADER AREA OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS ON MONDAY. ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL POSE A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.. WITH AN ADDITIONAL THREAT FOR HEAVY...AND
POSSIBLY FLOODING RAINFALL. THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT SHOULD BE
LOCATED ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB ABOVE 100 DEGREES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS ON MONDAY.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 5AM
SUNDAY.

$$

BURKE/TY

[Jon27]

Does this mean we'll finally get a little rain?

[Bunty]

Looks like OKC might be bypassed again for tonight, with radar suggesting the northern part of the state already has or will get some rain tonight with a severe thunderstorm watch over much of that area until 1AM Monday, 6/13. The northwest, in yellow, has a tornado watch.

[Thunder]

We should be drought-free for the rest of the season now.

[OKCMallen]

Intersting morning around 50th and Western.

[Bunty]

So much for even the worst of it having bypassed the northern OKC area, what with 4 to 12" of rain with Edmond possibly hardest hit. Let's hope the worst is over.

[OKCisOK4me]

There's more development to the southwest. Hopefully, if it comes up this way, it will track further south. The ten o'clock news should be interesting tonight...

[JIMBO]

5.4 inches at my house, so far.

[USG '60]

When my 8 inch gage was about to overflow I emptied it and it is back to 2 and a half inches. This is just off 23rd and May where they are saying we had 7 inches.

[OKCisOK4me]

When my 8 inch gage was about to overflow I emptied it and it is back to 2 and a half inches. This is just off 23rd and May where they are saying we had 7 inches.

Well, NW 23rd & Villa looked like a lake so I believe ya!

[venture]

Haven't had time to do a weather update in a while, so here goes.

Hot.

See you next month.

Okay maybe not. : )

Well we are going to be under the ridge of death for awhile here, but there is hope...maybe. Depends how you look at it. This is where I toss out my normal disclaimer of don't take this to the bank, just keep it in the back of your mind. So there are 2 opportunities that could break this heat.

1) Late Evening/Overnight Storms. There will be a couple boundaries that will be "close" to the state. We might see some storms attempt to develop along them either in the state or close and try to make a run for OK. The only issue is the extreme cap of death of us will quickly kill storms off if they get close, unless they have some sort of other support.

2) Tropical Weather. This is probably the more "likely" of the two options. Though the chance is still just extremely slight now, and really something we really don't want considering the goings on in the Gulf. Models are hinting at a tropical depression to eventually form either between Puerto Rico and Florida or in the Caribbean. The northern solution hints that this system might move WNW into the Gulf and then make landfall in SE Texas towards the end of next week or later. This system, if it moves north through Texas could bring us some welcome relief from the heat. At the very least, it should give us some high clouds to help cool things down slightly. The negative here, models indicate that this system could hang around Texas for nearly a week and would likely lead to some widespread flooding down there.

The Southern solution is a combo. It develops two tropical systems in Caribbean. In the next 3-5 days. The Western system looks like it may be the more dominant. The Eastern storm moves NW around the Western one into Cuba. The Western storm would be nearing the Yucatan by next Sunday and NW course. Depending on how things work out down the line, this could throw more moisture up our way if it continues that path.

So...one thing to take away, tropics are getting active here in the next week or two. Forecasting tropical systems this far out is completely unreliable and everything can change. This should just be used as an advisory of what we may see here going into next weekend.

Hope may be on the way to get rid of the heat, but with it may be a massive mess with flooding and impacts on the Gulf recovery efforts.