2010 Tropical Weather Discussion

**venture** · 05-24-2010, 12:28 AM

Though Oklahoma rarely gets impacted by these more than once a year, the time has arrived...7 days early...to get the season going.

Links to Use for the Season
Air Force Recon Info: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/reconlist.shtml
Models - GFS North America Link: http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/
Models - FSU Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
Models - Colorado State Tropical Cycle Model Guidance: http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/
Models - US Navy NOGAPS Forecast Model: https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi...a=ngp_atlantic
Models - US Navy GFS Forecast Model: https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi...a=gfs_atlantic
NHC Forecast Product Changes for 2010: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/nhc_new_2010.pdf
NHC Satellite Imagery Page: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml
NHC Advisory Archive: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2010/index.shtml
NHC Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale Page: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.shtml
2010 Tropical Cyclone Names: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml

**venture** · 05-24-2010, 12:35 AM

Special tropical weather outlook
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
825 pm edt sun may 23 2010

for the north atlantic...caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico...

1. A non-tropical low pressure system centered about 500 miles
south-southwest of bermuda is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern
atlantic ocean along with gale-force winds. This low is expected
to move slowly toward the north-northwest and has some potential
to gradually acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics during
the next couple of days. There is a medium chance...30
percent...of this system becoming a subtropical or tropical cyclone
during the next 48 hours. For additional information...please see
high seas forecasts issued by the national weather service...under
awips header nfdhsfat1 and wmo header fznt01 kwbc. The next
statement on this system will be issued by midday monday.

**venture** · 05-28-2010, 03:43 AM

Climate Prediction Center - Atlantic Hurricane Outlook

We estimate a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity this season:

14-23 Named Storms,
8-14 Hurricanes
3-7 Major Hurricanes
An ACE range of 155%-270% of the median.

Sea Surface Temps in the Eastern Pacific are at neutral now and are hinting that that we'll head into another La Nina soon.