General Weather Discussion - February 2014

[Of Sound Mind]

I noticed Payne played a little trick. He simply removed "storm 4" from Saturday to Tuesday. Hey it's just 3 days, lol. Gives them plenty of time to hype the major winter storm 4 Tuesday before it busts.

No one can take these TV weather clowns seriously at this point. It is all hype/doom and gloom/fear mongering bs with these bafoons. They need to put on red noses and big floppy shoes.

To be fair, if you actually listened to what he said, he specifically noted that the storm originally forecast for Saturday had shifted and wouldn't impact the state as previously thought, which means the next storm to hit, the fourth storm in the last week or so — i.e. storm #4 — would be around Tuesday. He's not saying it's the same storm. To say otherwise is disingenuous for the sake of TV "weather clowns" bashing.

[Anonymous.]

NAM is slightly back up with this little clipper snow. General 1-2 randomized from about I-44 and south.

WRF shows the same and has been a good model for the last two systems.

[sacolton]

[venture]

Looks like the Central/Southern solution is coming more in line with what should happen. NWS has adjusted their forecast accordingly. More thoughts after Euro is in.

[sacolton]

http://sirocco.accuweather.com/nx_mo...inmaSIROK_.gif

Dear God! It's headed straight for OKC!

RUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUNNNNNNNNNN!!!!

[venture]

Winter Wx Advisory is up...here is the text...

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1256 PM CST WED FEB 5 2014


OKZ019-022>046-TXZ083>090-060700-
/O.NEW.KOUN.WW.Y.0006.140206T0000Z-140206T1800Z/
/O.CON.KOUN.WC.Y.0005.140206T0000Z-140206T1800Z/
LOGAN-WA****A-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-
ARCHER-CLAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GUTHRIE...CORDELL...ANADARKO...YUKON...
EL RENO...MUSTANG...OKLAHOMA CITY...CHANDLER...CHICKASHA...
PURCELL...NORMAN...MOORE...SHAWNEE...SEMINOLE...HO LDENVILLE...
HOLLIS...MANGUM...HOBART...ALTUS...FREDERICK...LAW TON...DUNCAN...
PAULS VALLEY...SULPHUR...ADA...COALGATE...WALTERS...WAUR IKA...
ARDMORE...QUANAH...CHILLICOTHE...CROWELL...VERNON. ..
WICHITA FALLS...MUNDAY...KNOX CITY...SEYMOUR...ARCHER CITY...
HOLLIDAY...LAKESIDE CITY...HENRIETTA
1256 PM CST WED FEB 5 2014


...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON CST THURSDAY...
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO NOON CST THURSDAY...


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS
EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY.


* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA...AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS...CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS
THURSDAY...AND TAPER OFF DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.


* AMOUNTS...TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA...TO 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS
THE WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.


* IMPACTS...SLICK AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS
SUNSET TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THESE
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL THEN SPREAD EASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. IN ADDITION...VISIBILITIES COULD DROP TO NEAR 1 MILE AT
TIMES DUE TO MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES MAKING DRIVING EVEN MORE
DIFFICULT.


* OTHER IMPACTS...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE NEGATIVE
TEENS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SINGLE DIGIT
WIND CHILLS ARE THEN EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

[Damon Lewis]

Anyone happen to catch this GFS freak out for Mon-Tues snow?

[Anonymous.]

It is going to be pure irony if this band ends up giving OKC more issues than the last two systems.

[LakeEffect]

It is going to be pure irony if this band ends up giving OKC more issues than the last two systems.

Tuttle said that one of the models puts out more than the others... but it's Tuttle, so I take it with skepticism. He's also saying 6-12 next Monday-Wednesday, which, while I'd love to have happen, I certainly don't trust. He helps hype things almost as much as KFOR.

Related to hype, I'd have to say that KOCO seems most grounded in reality, but maybe that's because I tend to only watch them and then see people post crazy things from the other stations (possibly out of context).

[venture]

Tuttle said that one of the models puts out more than the others... but it's Tuttle, so I take it with skepticism. He's also saying 6-12 next Monday-Wednesday, which, while I'd love to have happen, I certainly don't trust. He helps hype things almost as much as KFOR.

Related to hype, I'd have to say that KOCO seems most grounded in reality, but maybe that's because I tend to only watch them and then see people post crazy things from the other stations (possibly out of context).

Damon and his crew stay pretty level headed which is much welcome. Tuttle needs to try to keep up his thousands of Facebook followers who get a bit too cult like for me.

[LakeEffect]

Damon and his crew stay pretty level headed which is much welcome. Tuttle needs to try to keep up his thousands of Facebook followers who get a bit too cult like for me.

Just "a bit"?

[sacolton]

Heck, it would be a MIRACLE if we got something that resembles a "storm"!

[SoonerDave]

Any time I hear something coming from Tuttle...I can't help but think of the old MASH episode about "Captain Tuttle..." the non-existent captain made up by Hawkeye and Trapper to use as a cover for scavenging donations to the orphans.

So when I see a "Tuttle" forecast..I instantly assume its complete fiction

[sacolton]

Tuttle said that one of the models puts out more than the others...

I had a girlfriend like that. Jus' sayin'.

[venture]

12Z Euro is pretty much in the exact area as the WW Adv area. It is in line with the 1-2" snowfall amounts around here. So that all looks good.

Next storm for Monday Night/Tuesday...GFS is a bit aggressive right now on snowfall. Euro is more...meh...it has precip Tuesday-Weds with the bulk of precip going off to the SE. Temps will be supportive of mostly snow, but could see some sleet/freezing rain mix in south of I-40.

Euro output QPF is around 0.475" which all snow is going to be around 5-6" give or take.

GFS output...

Freezing Rain Accumulation

[venture]

Current radar showing the snow that has been pretty light out west. So far the only report is near Cordell.

[Andrew4OU]

Just saw a "Winter Storm #4" for Friday back on the 7 day for Ch. 4 and 9.

[venture]

Only here is 1-2 inches of snow...tenth of an inch of rain essentially...called a storm.

[venture]

Snow movin ginto the metro now. mPING reports from El Reno and now Mustang with confirmed snow falling. Gradual increase in coverage over the next hour or two.

[s00nr1]

Keep an eye on next Mon, Tues, Wed....

BTW Venture and Anon, I've spent the last 6 days in Atlanta at AMS 2014 and have some stories that are sure to make you jealous.

[LocoAko]

Keep an eye on next Mon, Tues, Wed....

BTW Venture and Anon, I've spent the last 6 days in Atlanta at AMS 2014 and have some stories that are sure to make you jealous.

Totally jealous. My first year out of the last 4 that I couldn't make it. Hope you had fun!

[Anonymous.]

Snow really picking up along 40 moving east.

s00nr, looking forward to it!

[venture]

Light snow over much of the metro area now. This is going to be a very fluffy powder for this so we'll probably see snow to liquid ratios around 20:1 for this. We'll see how much it can squeeze out. Looks like max will be 2 inches of accumulation...until a bird sneezes and blows it away.

[venture]

Keep an eye on next Mon, Tues, Wed....

BTW Venture and Anon, I've spent the last 6 days in Atlanta at AMS 2014 and have some stories that are sure to make you jealous.

So jealous...hope you had a blast.

[venture]

Winter Storm Discussion for Monday...Tuesday...Wednesday...depends on which model you like...

00Z Euro
By Midnight Monday (12:01AM) light precip over much of Central OK back to the W and NW. Generally around an inch through this time frame. Through 3AM an additional inch for along/near a line from Elk City-Clinton-Chickasha-Norman-Pauls Valley-McAlester-Poteau. Maybe a pocket up to 2 inches in Eastern OK. By 6AM an additional 1" over much of NW, C and E OK. An area of 2-3" from Norman east through McAlester. Snow moves out by 9AM.

Tuesday 3AM another band of snow moves into NW OK, around and inch or less. Through 6AM maybe another half inch of snow for areas west of I-44 and south of I-40. North of I-40 maybe another 1-2 inches with some pockets up to 3" from Alva-Enid-Perry. Through 9AM light snow north of I-40, maybe another inch. Flurries SW OK another half in at the most. By Noon more light snow except for SE OK. Maybe another inch in far SW OK and also across Northern OK. Through 3PM snow increases over SW OK into C OK which another 1-2", maybe up to 3" around Lawton. Northern OK maybe another inch. By 6PM snow focuses on Central, NE, and SC OK. 1-2" with up to 3" from OKC area along I-44 and south to the River and then along I-44 up through Tulsa. Things should end by later that evening.

Wave #1 for Central OK someone could be looking at 2-4". Wave #2 on Tuesday Central OK could see 3-6" of snow. Precip type isn't completely locked in and we could see some sleet and freezing rain. We'll have to see how this plays out. On to the GFS...

00Z GFS
Monday will see precip start out mixed with some snow/sleet/frz rain possible over C and E OK as well as far W OK. This will continue to be light and transition to snow through the afternoon. By 6PM maybe a half inch to an inch of snow over C and Northern OK. Through Tuesday at 6PM looks like potential for some heavy accumulations. It has at least 3 inches over much of OK. Area over 6 inches from SW OK up through Norman. Another area with potential for around 6 inches over NW OK and NE OK. Rest of the Metro looks like about 5 inches. Through the day on Tuesday until 6PM moderate to heavy snow continues. Another 6 to 8 inches from Lawton to Shawnee. Then 3 inches around that area for much the rest of Central and Southern OK, less than 2 inches Northern OK. Things end quickly Tuesday evening. Storm total per GFS has about 10-12" for much of the OKC metro area. 8 to 10 inches from SW to NE OK. 6"+ for the area around that except for far NE OK and far S OK.

06Z GFS is processing now, so we'll see what it says and compare it to the daytime runs later today.