General Weather Discussion - February 2014

[okcboomer]

So no "doomsday" storm for this coming weekend?

[venture]

So no "doomsday" storm for this coming weekend?

For snow lovers it could be a doomsday I guess. :-P

[okcboomer]

Channel 4 has 100% chance of winter storm for Saturday. This is what I'm talking about. 5 days out and they are saying 100% chance of a winter storm. That can't be wrong, right?

[OKCisOK4me]

For snow lovers it could be a doomsday I guess. :-P

Do you think my 6am flight on Thursday morning will be fine?

[Anonymous.]

Channel 4 has 100% chance of winter storm for Saturday. This is what I'm talking about. 5 days out and they are saying 100% chance of a winter storm. That can't be wrong, right?

I mean if you want to be super technical, if it is precipitating, it is indeed from a storm. And if it is snow, it is by fact a snow storm.


Now I know you're not being that technical. So I will say this... if you depend on forecasts that are summaried to percentages on a 10 day map with turkeys and bunnies on it for holidays. Then you probably deserve that type of information.

If you want to learn more about weather and the dynamics of it all in updates that aren't scheduled at 10pm, then you are already in the right place.

[venture]

Do you think my 6am flight on Thursday morning will be fine?

Nothing is showing more than an inch of snow, so I don't see why you would have a problem.

[venture]

Channel 4 has 100% chance of winter storm for Saturday. This is what I'm talking about. 5 days out and they are saying 100% chance of a winter storm. That can't be wrong, right?

I would love to know what model they are looking at. NAM, GFS, and the new Euro have it completely dry Saturday.

[OKCisOK4me]

Nothing is showing more than an inch of snow, so I don't see why you would have a problem.

Sweet. I wouldn't ask any other met than you!

[venture]

Thursday forecast looking at the 12Z models (18Z runs are going now)...

The pink are is the NAM's outline for roughly 1-2" of snow. ECMWF isn't that far off form there, but has a pocket of around 3" in West Central OK. GFS goes the southerly route and is a bit heavier with snow. GFS is the blue areas. Dark blue is a general 1-2 maybe 3" of snow (higher SW) and the Light Blue is going to be the 3+" plus area where 4 or 5 inches could fall. So looking at this the concern is that the models have roughly two different solutions to this. The most likely area for snow is going to be where the solutions overlap.



I wanted to have some graphical reference because images like these are going around...

[PennyQuilts]

Love that overlapping graphic, Venture.

[venture]

As far as Saturday...

KOCO: Mostly cloudy. Highs in the mid 30s.
KWTV: 90% Chance of Snow
KFOR: 90% Chance of Snow, The snow could be heavy for Saturday morning.

The Euro on the 00Z run did have some light snow around for Saturday morning, but the 12Z run eliminated that. The GFS for the last few runs for Saturday morning has look like this:



I'm at a loss. Maybe I just need more sleep.

[Plutonic Panda]

This whole thing sucked

BTW, it kind of started snowing with heavy flakes here in S. OKC for a bit then tapered off.

[venture]

18Z NAM and GFS are in pretty good agreement now one Thursday with the "blue" solution in my graphic a few posts back.

[sacolton]

KFOR needs to stop using "WINTER STORM" every time there's a dusting of snow. Today was like "Light Winter Sprinkles".

[OkieHornet]

KFOR needs to stop using "WINTER STORM" every time there's a dusting of snow. Today was like "Light Winter Sprinkles".

but "light winter sprinkles" won't get you ratings!

[sacolton]

but "light winter sprinkles" won't get you ratings!

Good point. "DEADLY WINTER STORM!" would be better.

[Mel]

Just a dusting of snow in Mustang overnight. It made the cats high step a little.

[BB37]

but "light winter sprinkles" won't get you ratings!

And it IS sweeps month.

[Uncle Slayton]

Just depressing non-events all around. Another thoroughly disappointing winter.

[venture]

00Z NAM goes even lighter on precip for Thursday. Maybe an inch south of I-40 and then dry through Saturday (end of its forecast window).

[Plutonic Panda]

That's hilarious

[sacolton]

Old Man Winter just letting out a few toots before he leaves.

[okcboomer]

Poor Emily...... She had the 100%, slam dunk, no way it won't happen Saturday winter storm on her 7 day just yesterday. Now it's a measly 20%. I said it'd be fun, and the the tv weather clowns didn't disappoint!

[okcboomer]

I noticed Payne played a little trick. He simply removed "storm 4" from Saturday to Tuesday. Hey it's just 3 days, lol. Gives them plenty of time to hype the major winter storm 4 Tuesday before it busts.

[SOONER8693]

I noticed Payne played a little trick. He simply reviewed "storm 4" from Saturday to Tuesday. Hey it's just 3 days, lol. Gives them plenty of time to hype the major winter storm 4 Tuesday before it busts.

No one can take these TV weather clowns seriously at this point. It is all hype/doom and gloom/fear mongering bs with these bafoons. They need to put on red noses and big floppy shoes.