General Weather Discussion - March 2014

[Bunty]

In this Spring outlook, there's drought improvement for central Oklahoma, but not the western part: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories...ngoutlook.html

[venture]

Storm Outlook from the evening models...

00Z GFS
Wednesday March 26th - W OK, PH - Very slight chance for a storm or two in the TX & OK PH and maybe far W OK if anything can form. Instability pretty limited, so nothing major. Central and E OK could see a quick shot of some needed rain.

Thursday March 27th - SE OK - This has trended further east and south the last few runs. This takes the risk area to a more climatologically favorable area for this time of year. Severe possible far SE OK, best chance will be down into TX.

Friday March 28th - C, SC, and SE OK - Instability will be higher this day with cape values 1000-1500 j/kg from the OKC Metro area through SC OK. Scattered showers and storms appear probably over much of the area. Severe risk will be pegged low for right now.

Sunday March 30th - W, C OK - Meager instability over much of the state, generally with CAPE under 1000 j/kg. Not much in the way of precip, so no risk right now.

Monday March 31st - W, NW OK - Marginal instability over NW OK with CAPE values at or just above 1000 j/kg. Still appears precip will be lacking, so risk is absent unless things change.

Tuesday April 1st - W, C OK - Moderate instability with CAPE approaching 1500+ j/kg over NC OK with 1000 j/kg south to about LAW. Potential for some very isolated areas of storms to pop up, but risk negated by such low areal coverage.

[Soonerman12]

Anon and Venture.... I've been looking at some weather models lately and it is starting to look like our first chance of "possible" severe weather in eastern Oklahoma/Tulsa will be this Thursday the 27th. Our local Meteorologist are saying just be "aware". (duh it's Oklahoma lol) Looking at models its not looking like a huge chance but there seems to be a low chance of some type of severe weather. I know right now moisture is the big concern. IF we see moisture do you think there will be enough wind sheer to support rotating storms? Again I know a lot about weather and how all this works, I storm chase every season. I just want to know what you guys are thinking as of now, and where you think possibilities are.. Just something fun to look forward to. Thanks guys

[Anonymous.]

Well on Wednesday there will be a weak system moving up out of TX across most of OK. Temps in the upper 50s with a cool rain falling. Should get around half an inch over much of state if all goes to current plan.

The following day looks like extreme eastern OK has a shot at some storms, but it does not look promising. I would say people in central AR have a better shot at some severe weather.


Long term outlook:
After this Wednesday, looks like we get into 70s on the daily and we dry out even more. Look for high fire dangers more consistently.

[ou48A]

I'm ready for some warmer weather!

[OKCisOK4me]

I'm ready for some warmer weather!

Look no further than this weekend. Upper 70s come Sunday!

[venture]

Here is the SPC outlook for Thursday...again, this is mostly going to be an E OK event.

[bchris02]

So is winter on its last legs or do you think we will see periodic shots of arctic air in April like we did last year?

[Soonerman12]

Bchris02... According to current weather models the major cold looks to be pretty much done.(That doesn't mean we won't get in the lower 40's for daytime lows.) But for the 20's and really cold weather we look to be pretty much done. For April it looks like for the most part we will be in the Upper 60's and lower 70's for day time highs and pretty much in the 50's for lows. We may get to the lower 80's some days next month. =)

[Anonymous.]

I would say with tomorrow's cool rain. It will spark off official spring in OK. Consistently upper 60s to 70s and things start turning green. Fire danger will be high on warm windy days, especially before things become green the next few weeks.

[venture]

Thursday appears to be a pretty active day on tap for severe weather, mainly in far eastern Oklahoma.

Through 1PM dryline will setup generally just west of I-35 across the body of Oklahoma. Dews ahead of it will be mainly in the 50s to near 60 in far SE OK. By 4PM the dryline will shift east to a Tulsa-Ardmore line with respectable moisture ahead of it. At the same time a cold front will start to swing down from Kansas into NW OK. Fire danger looks most extreme over W and SW OK where very dry air will punch in earlier than to the east. By 7PM the dryline will setup from Miami to Durant, with the cold front start to overtake it in NE OK. Temps well into the 70s ahead and behind the dryline.

Instability showing CAPE values up to and maybe exceeding 2000 j/kg especially over SE OK. Storm initiation looks like it may be pretty late for Oklahoma, around the 7PM hour out east. Meanwhile a pretty tough squall line could be on going up over MO. Everything should move out into AR pretty quickly, at least by 10PM. If we look at the composite images, Severe potential is there for much of the area mention, with the tornado risk highest in SE OK - if anything can get going there in time before things shift into AR.

[Soonerman12]

Venture... So do you think Tulsa area will be out of this? About how far in miles from Tulsa? I'm planning on chasing Thursday but don't want to go way to far from Tulsa. Also, according to the info you provided what do you think the chances are of Tornadoes

[venture]

Venture... So do you think Tulsa area will be out of this? About how far in miles from Tulsa? I'm planning on chasing Thursday but don't want to go way to far from Tulsa. Also, according to the info you provided what do you think the chances are of Tornadoes

Main show looks like early evening and in pretty terrible chase territory in most cases. I think best tornado risk is in AR, but that might be close to or after dark. If it were me, I would probably pass on this one. Of course things could change tomorrow to show things popping further west.

[Soonerman12]

Yeah I've chased that area before it can get pretty difficult to see some times. Are any models showing a further west trend at all?

[Anonymous.]

Just look @ where the dryline is tomorrow and make your call then. I, for one, would not chase Eastern OK at all.

[okcboomer]

Aww, here we go. hoping for tornadoes so people can get off. So nice here in the Bible Belt.

[jn1780]

Aww, here we go. hoping for tornadoes so people can get off. So nice here in the Bible Belt.

What are you talking about? Their going to happen anyway. Some people just choose to study and admire the power of nature and many come every year from areas outside the bible belt.

[LocoAko]

Just look @ where the dryline is tomorrow and make your call then. I, for one, would not chase Eastern OK at all.

Agree.

[okcboomer]

What are you talking about? Their going to happen anyway. Some people just choose to study and admire the power of nature and many come every year from areas outside the bible belt.

Well there is a good shot of decent rain tomorrow, but some are worried that the tornado threat that brings destruction to homes and businesses as well as possible loss of life will be too far east for them to chase. Oh so sad for them.

[jn1780]

Well there is a good shot of decent rain tomorrow, but some are worried that the tornado threat that brings destruction to homes and businesses as well as possible loss of life will be too far east for them to chase. Oh so sad for them.

I dont think Soonerman is that concern about it.

[venture]

Well there is a good shot of decent rain tomorrow, but some are worried that the tornado threat that brings destruction to homes and businesses as well as possible loss of life will be too far east for them to chase. Oh so sad for them.

I'm not sure how much you have read these threads in the last year you have been around, but your tone really highlights you don't understand what these threads are for. There are also many who are meteorologists, weather enthusiasts, chasers, etc...that all contribute to this thread as well. Which means you'll have discussion about ideal chase conditions, favorable environments for tornadoes, etc. No one those is wanting any of these to go through a populated area.

If such an innocent comment that Sooner made is going to bug you or offend you that much, please avoid the Weather section for the next 3 months.

[venture]

Rain accumulations for tomorrow look pretty decent and widespread. Not a ton of rain, but it helps.

[jn1780]

I'm not sure how much you have read these threads in the last year you have been around, but your tone really highlights you don't understand what these threads are for. There are also many who are meteorologists, weather enthusiasts, chasers, etc...that all contribute to this thread as well. Which means you'll have discussion about ideal chase conditions, favorable environments for tornadoes, etc. No one those is wanting any of these to go through a populated area.

If such an innocent comment that Sooner made is going to bug you or offend you that much, please avoid the Weather section for the next 3 months.

If anything chasers hate trying to chase a storm through a populated area. Especially, when people are clogging the roads while fleeing south.

[Plutonic Panda]

Well, it seems we are having an epidemic of "wannabe chasers" lately. I myself, was guilty of it one year, but that was the first year I got my license, and a Logan County Sheriff stopped me and we had a good hour long chat. He was real nice and told me some things that have happened to people who are inexperienced(like myself) that go out and chase these storms and I have no done it since.

[venture]

Well, it seems we are having an epidemic of "wannabe chasers" lately. I myself, was guilty of it one year, but that was the first year I got my license, and a Logan County Sheriff stopped me and we had a good hour long chat. He was real nice and told me some things that have happened to people who are inexperienced(like myself) that go out and chase these storms and I have no done it since.

Yeah, but that has really been increasing as mobile data has become more accessible. I remember chasing the first time in Oklahoma in 1997. It was me with my scanner radio, weather radio, and maps - the paper kind. The next year or two things changed dramatically as mobile data started to come into the picture even more and laptops and mobile radar allowed more people with no weather background. Ah well. Side note...I'm going to finally start getting my old videos on line. Figured I need too before VCRs go completely extinct. LOL