General Weather Discussion - May 2019

[mugofbeer]

SPC release indicates a PDS watch will be issued between 1-2pm due to very early stages of development in southern Oklahoma.

One has been issued now for the southern TX Panhandle down to Lubbock and then east - all to the SW of OK so far.

[pw405]

Friendly Reminder: around 700 Oklahomans die every year in car crashes. 281 Oklahomans died in tornadoes during the 60 year period of 1950-2010. Assuming 2019 is average for car deaths, we've already lost more Oklahomans to car crashes in the 6 months of 2019 than we in the aforementioned 60 YEAR period.

[Bunty]

Terminology like "life-altering, catastrophic tornadoes" is being thrown out.

This does look like an absolute worst-case scenario for OKC.

Until storms start proving themselves, I'm more concerned about the potential for flooding in the state. The ground is saturated and can't deal with heavy downpours.

Really, the situation isn't worth worrying much about until a tornado warning is issued for your county. Then worry to death and if religious pray for protection.

[jn1780]

We don't want people stuck in their cars in these supercells. People should be heading home by 3 if they can.

[Bellaboo]

State closed up at 1:00 pm in the metro.

[Bobby821]

From NWS Norman:
12:39 pm - our latest weather balloon data shows the cap is pretty much gone over central Oklahoma. We are starting to see very early signs of storm development in several areas. Storms will get bad quickly. Stay alert!

[OKCRT]

The Ch 25 met says these storms will spin up out of nowhere and the forecast is even worse than what was predicted earlier. Mentioned something about sending the weather balloons up earlier and they came back with bad news.

[soonerguru]

is there going to be a chat?

[corwin1968]

State closed up at 1:00 pm in the metro.

OKCPS told all staff they were locking the doors at 12:00 and everyone had to be out of the buildings.

[LocoAko]

https://twitter.com/NWSSPC/status/1130542973060562946

PDS Tornado Watch # 199 is coming for Oklahoma. This is only the second watch in SPC history where every category of watch probabilities (torn, wind, hail) are at greater than 95%.

The only other watch like this was issued for Alabama on 27 April 2011.

Not good.

[SomeGuy]

https://chatroll.com/embed/chat/wxst...tuff-live-chat If anyone is looking for the chat.

[liirogue]

https://chatroll.com/embed/chat/wxst...tuff-live-chat If anyone is looking for the chat.

I'm getting a message that the event is full?

[Bits_Of_Real_Panther]

Can someone share a good live radar link - the mesonet site seems bogged down.

TIA!

[jedicurt]

Can someone share a good live radar link - the mesonet site seems bogged down.

TIA!

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?...101111&loop=no

[jonny d]

Is OKC going to be spared? I know there is a while to go, but there is nothing to show OKC getting hit by anything as of now. Are those storms in Texas going to move east?

[Bunty]

https://chatroll.com/embed/chat/wxst...tuff-live-chat If anyone is looking for the chat.

Then animated one is here: https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/rada...oop=yeshttp://

[Bunty]

TORNADO WATCH

Areas Affected:
Atoka - Beckham - Blaine - Bryan - Caddo - Canadian - Carter - Cleveland - Coal - Comanche - Cotton - Creek - Custer - Dewey - Garfield - Garvin - Grady - Greer - Harmon - Hughes - Jackson - Jefferson - Johnston - Kingfisher - Kiowa - Lincoln - Logan - Love - Major - Marshall - McClain - Murray - Noble - Okfuskee - Oklahoma - Okmulgee - Osage - Pawnee - Payne - Pontotoc - Pottawatomie - Roger Mills - Seminole - Stephens - Tillman - Tulsa - Washi ta
Effective: Mon, 5/20 1:35pm Updated: Mon, 5/20 2:46pm Urgency: Expected
Expires: Mon, 5/20 10:00pm Severity: Severe Certainty: Likely

Details:

TORNADO WATCH 199 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BECKHAM BLAINE
BRYAN CADDO CANADIAN
CARTER CLEVELAND COAL
COMANCHE COTTON CREEK
CUSTER DEWEY GARFIELD
GARVIN GRADY GREER
HARMON HUGHES JACKSON
JEFFERSON JOHNSTON KINGFISHER
KIOWA LINCOLN LOGAN
LOVE MAJOR MARSHALL
MCCLAIN MURRAY NOBLE
OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE
OSAGE PAWNEE PAYNE
PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE ROGER MILLS
SEMINOLE STEPHENS TILLMAN
TULSA WASHI TA

[jn1780]

Is OKC going to be spared? I know there is a while to go, but there is nothing to show OKC getting hit by anything as of now. Are those storms in Texas going to move east?

Everything is drifting east. OKC threat may be later this afternoon. Its only about 3.

[jonny d]

Everything is drifting east. OKC threat may be later this afternoon. Its only about 3.

I wasn't questioning anyone on here. I am very amateur at this, and saw nothing (as of yet) troubling. But I also knew there was a long way to go.

[BB37]

Not a threat to OKC proper, but channel 9 has eyes on a weak tornado NE of Okarche, heading NNE.

[Anonymous.]

Here is an updated snapshot forecast of around 7-8 pm. We should see a defined cluster or line of supercells marching ENE into C OK. Some indication of some storms lining out and becoming less dangerous, but there may (likely) still be very dangerous supercells established within the cluster. Also somewhere potentially just W/NW of OKC area we could see a cell or two that rides along a triple point boundary that may actually alter the boundary itself if it can get established. Wind profiles just after dark look pretty ideal for surface based spin across basically all of W and C OK.

This is a full nowcast situation and you should tune into the NWS and local TV stations for information.

[CloudDeckMedia]

Severe activity seems to be staying N and W of the metro. Is OKC out of the woods on this event?

[Anonymous.]

New MD is out confirming latest model guidance. Development ahead of dryline looking less likely and this will be a sunset showdown across C OK with a line of supercells.

[jonny d]

New MD is out confirming latest model guidance. Development ahead of dryline looking less likely and this will be a sunset showdown across C OK with a line of supercells.

Does this mean late night rumblings for OKC?

[OKCRT]

I think for us in OKC that we have dodged a bullet. At least that's what it feels like from listening to all the hype. And that's fine with me.