General Weather Discussion - January 2014

[OKCisOK4me]

Beginning of the potential storm has moved into short term window. Looking at Sunday heading into Monday for timing (right now makes storm multi day event with secondary storm behind it - however, long-range models tend to do this and then evaporate secondary system once event time gets closer.)

Right now it looks like ice with snow follow-up. Potentially significant snow at this time.

When are you talking about?

Next Monday and Tuesday?

My weather app shows thunderstorms on Monday, rain/snow mix Tuesday.

[venture]

Band of very light snow moving south from Northern OK. Nothing of any substance expected.

[OKCisOK4me]

Sho nuff!!^^

[Anonymous.]

When are you talking about?

Next Monday and Tuesday?

My weather app shows thunderstorms on Monday, rain/snow mix Tuesday.

This forum is a little more in-depth than weather channel apps.

The only things useful on those are radar, alerts, and general temperatures.

[OKCisOK4me]

This forum is a little more in-depth than weather channel apps.

The only things useful on those are radar, alerts, and general temperatures.

If this thread is in depth then you need to be more specific than you were in the post and not assume to know that we can read your mind so that's besides the point.

And screw TWC!

[Anonymous.]

I am not sure what you need?

I stated general time frame and precip type as it looks at current.

General winter storm shaping up for early next week. Do you need snow totals in your backyard? Because that isn't happening 7+ days out.


Things will change many times each day until the event, just keeping check this thread as we get closer, things will get more specific.

[Anonymous.]

This is where light snow is falling and accumulating.

[venture]

Well its been awhile since we were able to do one of these, but since Anon tipped it off...here we go. First up, 00Z GFS discussion from this evening. Keep in mind things are still fluctuating but there are signs of a storm system early/middle of next week that we need to watch out for.

First off, through tomorrow morning. Chance of light snow from NW into C OK. Little to no accumulation due to just how dry it is. Then we are mostly dry until Saturday, at least for SE OK, which will see some light precip down there. Should be rain.

Midweek Storm Discussion
Moisture starts increasing on Monday from the south. Temps appear to mainly be in the mid 30s right now. Main storm system will transition near or south of the Red River it appears which will keep cold air in place. Reinforcing shot moves in on Tuesday as temps will fall most of the day into the 20s and then the single digits (at least in the North) by Wednesday morning. No real rebound for the duration of this storm. First above freezing day may be Friday or Saturday but next dumping of arctic air pours into the country next weekend.

Upper air temp profiles will be changing during this time period which of course dictates precip mode.

• Monday 6PM - Rain w/ possible sleet mix
• Tuesday 12AM - Sleet w/ rain mix
• Tuesday 6AM - Rain/Sleet
• Tuesday 6PM - Snow w/ some sleet

Accumulations of precip look like this, OKC metro only...

• Through Mon 6PM - Trace N of I-40, 0.05-0.1" I-40 and south.
• Mon 6PM to Tues 12AM - 0.05-0.1" most areas
• Tues 12AM to Tues 6AM - 0.25-0.35" most areas.
• Tues 6AM to Tues 6PM - 0.50-0.75" most areas.
• After 6PM Tuesday - Precip out of the area.

So as we put these together, this solution doesn't show a snow storm in the Metro. It is also borderline in some areas for an ice storm, however we know how that normally plays out. Right now the freezing line is forecast to be along the KS border by 6PM Monday when the precip starts to increase initially. By Midnight/12:01AM Tuesday it is roughly on an Elk City - Enid - Bartlesville line. At 6AM Tuesday it is right along I-44 in the Metro down to the SW to about Chickasha and then wiggles around going back to the W and SW. By 6PM Tuesday it is through all but SE OK for the most part.

So based on this timing it looks like we'll start with 0.3 to 0.45" of non-freezing rain through 6AM Tuesday - definitely welcome. Then it gets potentially problematic based on the position of the freezing line that we could see some areas with 0.75 to 1.10" of liquid which would be all ice/freezing rain. Winds appear to be 20-25 mph with higher gusts during the day on Tuesday. So as of right now, this would set up a a pretty decent ice storm for the area if this verifies.

Run to run model consistency isn't locked in, but it does have a significant storm system in the area during this time frame on the last 3 or 4 runs so far. So as everyone knows, that is when I start taking a serious interest. We'll need to definitely monitor this as we get closer. Based on the ability for the arctic air to move in easily this year, I really don't see that being an issue in being in place with this setup. Ideally though I would really like to see the upper air temps get lower so we can avoid a serious situation with ice and just deal with the snow. A foot of snow with 20 mph winds is a lot better than an inch of heavy ice on everything with the same winds.

[crimsoncrazy]

Parking lot is almost covered with snow at Reno and Morgan.

[venture]

Area of snow will continue to be south over the Metro. About a half inch to an inch max expected from it. No major issues.

[s00nr1]

This map shows accumulated snow depth as of Monday, Feb 10th at 12pm. Keep in mind that this will not verify but the GFS does continue to forecast multiple storms for next week (following the one aforementioned by Venture).

[OKCisOK4me]

This map shows accumulated snow depth as of Monday, Feb 10th at 12pm. Keep in mind that this will not verify but the GFS does continue to forecast multiple storms for next week (following the one aforementioned by Venture).

Is this suppose to be the Monday that Anonymous was talking about or is he referring to next Monday, the 3rd?

I'm suppose to fly in from Houston that night on a return trip from Cancun.

[s00nr1]

I believe Anon was referring to 2/3. This map reflects snowpack as of 2/10.

[Anonymous.]

Yes. February 3rd storm is still on track at this time. GFS speeding it up a bit.

[OKCisOK4me]

As long as my flight on 2/10 is not delayed I'm happy. I'd hate to spend the night in Houston Hobby...

[venture]

12Z Euro Discussion (takes us through Tuesday evening)...

Through 6AM Tuesday
Moisture precip start to overrun Oklahoma by early Tuesday morning. Through 6AM looks like Central OK could see up to 0.1" of precip, heavy as you go SW towards Lubbock. Temps at this time are forecast to be in the low to mid 30s with the freezing line back over NW OK. Looks like liquid over the Metro and more of a rain/snow mix or all snow in West Central OK. For this time period looks like up to 1" of snow for an area north of a line from Mangum-Hobart-Cordell-Weatherford-Watonga and then West/South of a line from Watonga-Fairview-Woodward.

6AM Tuesday through 12PM Tuesday
Precip begins to increase significantly over the state. Outside of NE OK, everyone will be near or above a quarter inch of liquid during this period. Euro has two main precip shields. One is over SC/SE OK down into the Dallas area and NE TX. The other is over Western OK down to West Texas. In between there might be a zone of lighter precip, generally around that 0.25" amount that would include cities line Ponca, OKC, Norman, Duncan and back north towards Shawnee and Okmulgee. While we know pin point accuracy on amounts isn't reality on models this far out, here it what it shows. OKC area roughly along/west of I-44 and I-35 have 0.25 to 0.375". East of that area will be 0.175 to 0.25" As you get up towards Stillwater down another category to about 0.1 to 0.175". Southwest Oklahoma will have precip amounts ranging from 0.25 around Chickasha to nearly 1 inch by Hollis and west of Altus. Freezing line will be running from roughly OK/TX border along I-40 to El Reno and then jog north to just south of a Enid to Perry line and then NE towards Bartlesville and Joplin. Snowfall amounts for this time period are roughly 1-2" west of I-35, 2-3" from OKC to El Reno. Then increasing from there going west to a max around 6-7 inches from Clinton to Elk City and south to the Quartz Mtn SP area.

12PM Tuesday through 6PM Tuesday
Precip begins to move off. Looking at 0.25 to 0.375" along the I-44 corridor and south, including Norman, Tulsa, and Lawton. Some heavier precip back in East OK from McAlester to Muskogee to Bentonville. North of that area looks like 0.175 to 0.25" for the rest of the Metro area. Freezing line at this time will be running along a Frederick-Duncan-Ada-McAlester line. Additional snowfall amounts during this time period are roughly 2-3" for most of the Metro area and up to 5-6" in far EC OK.

Quick 12Z GFS Note...
It is continuing to show a storm system coming through at the same time period and has been pretty consistent with that. Amounts are generally in the half inch to 0.75" range for much of the Metro area. Forecast soundings still aren't completely clear on precip type. It does keep the surface above freezing for the duration of the precip but soundings indicate a mix of rain/sleet is very possible. I think we are still a few days away from really getting a good read on precip types.

Bottom line...
Will there be a storm coming through Tuesday? Yes.
Will there be conditions to justify winter storm headlines? Yes.
Do we know exactly what mode the precip will be in (rain/sleet/snow)? No.
Potential is there, we need to monitor it. Bread and milk watch.

[Plutonic Panda]

As long as my flight on 2/10 is not delayed I'm happy. I'd hate to spend the night in Houston Hobby...

They have a Pappadeaux there man, WHAT MORE DO YOU NEED!?

[venture]

While my sleep schedule is screwed up, here is an update based on the 00Z Euro early this morning.

Sunday Feb 2nd
Potential is increasing for a rain/snow scenario across the state. 00Z GFS picked up on this a bit with a quick moving system dropping several inches of snow in Western Oklahoma. Euro on this latest run as also picked up on this but is more around the I-44 area (because storms need that highway to figure out where to go). Precip moves into Central OK by 9AM. Quick time frame forecast...

• 6AM to 9AM: Freezing line runs Ardmore-McAlester-Fort Smith. Around 0.1" of precip in the Metro mainly from Downtown OKC down through Norman and back tot he SW. Should be mostly snow so around an inch of that unless we see rain/sleet mixing in.
• 9AM to 12PM: Freezing line stationary to moving NW very slightly from Wichita Falls-Ada-Fayetteville AR. Around 0.1" of precip NW Metro to 0.175 to 0.375 in the far S and SE Metro area and also just south of I-44 back towards Lawton. Appears to be snow in the Metro. Less than an inch north of I-44, around an inch at I-44 and 2-3" from Lawton-Chickasha-Norman-Shawnee and south about 50 miles of that line.
• 12PM to 3PM: Pocket of below freezing area lingers just over the I-44 corridor and where ongoing precip is, elsewhere should warm up a couple degrees. Maybe another 0.1" of an inch of precip Along/south of I-44. This would do another 1-2" from Chickasha to Norman to Tulsa.
• After 3PM: Light flurries/freezing drizzle/drizzle expected, very light accumulation.

So worst case scenario right now looks like some people could get a quick shot of 3-5 inches of snow, mainly south of I-44. North of I-44 looks to be an inch or two and this is per Euro. The GFS was more to the NW of this are, so the exact location isn't set in stone yet.

Tuesday Feb 4th/Wednesday Feb 3rd Storm
Euro goes much further south with this latest run. Light precip starts over area west of I-35 by Noon on Tuesday and looks to be mostly snow. By 6PM Tuesday general area of 1-2 inches of snow south of a Altus-Lawton-Ada line with possible 2-3" around Duncan and back SW to Wichita Falls. Through midnight another few inches of snow south of the same line. Around an inch on the north side of it to 2-3" along the river. Some heavier amounts, up to 4-5" in far SE OK also shown. By Wednesday morning is brings totals up to around 1-2" in an area from Hobart-Chickasha-Norman-Wewoka-Fort Smith. Then 2-3" for Altus-Lawton-Pauls Valley - McAlester. 3-4" for Childress-Frederick-Duncan-Ada. 4-5" for Vernon TX-Ardmore-Durant. Then in far SW OK some areas 6 to 10 inches total. As I said earlier, things will bounce around a bunch and we've come to expect that. This will get further tuning as we get closer.

06Z GFS Quick Discussion

• Sunday's potential snowfall is also still showing up. It is moved closer to the I-44 area but offset from Euro by about 40 miles further to the North. Not much to really add to the specific except amounts for the OKC area would be higher per GFS over Euro. Depending on where things setup, we could definitely see a band of snow from SW OK up through nearly all of the Metro area and up to the NE of 3-6 inches. Timing looks to be the same as Euro so will leave it there.
• As of right now, the run is only out through this coming Sunday, so no comments to add for storm early/mid next week.

[Anonymous.]

This morning's GFS improves chances of snow for Sunday, but kills the large storm for Tuesday/Wednesday. We'll see what next run goes with.

[adaniel]

Not sure if this should go here, but I just got off the phone with my aunt in the Atlanta suburbs who says it is nothing short of a sh*tshow down there due to the snow. People (especially those from the NE or Midwest) oftentimes laugh at southerners who can't handle snow, but this situation is no laughing matter. People had to spend the night in grocery stores, schools, their cars, etc. Complete transportation breakdown over this.

Iced-in students seek refuge in schools | www.ajc.com

[Anonymous.]

Goes to show you how different criteria effects different areas.

Nearly the entire Gulf coast was under 'Winter Storm Warnings' for the last couple days for just 1-3 inches of snow. I think Atlanta got somewhere around 2-3 inches and the entire city shut down.

People up north make memes and other jokes about southern states being affected by little winter precip. But the city infrastructure and most importantly, the citizens do not know how to act/handle the winter conditions.

Here in OK, we might as well be thrown into the same boat, schools and offices often times do not cancel and plan ahead of time.

[Anonymous.]

Latest GFS moves precip. chances to Monday, and starts to bring Tuesday - Wednesday storm back NW.

Also long range indicates doomsday storm for that following weekend.

[s00nr1]

What the ECMWF is putting out for the next 7-10 days is nothing short of comical. Anywhere between 12 and 26" of snow for a large swath of the South and Midwest.

[Soonerman12]

ANON and Venture.... What do you think the likelihood of a major storm happening here in the Tulsa area. I noticed the NWS hazardous weather outlook mentions they think there might be a pretty significant snow/ice storm next week.. What do you think?

[LakeEffect]

What the ECMWF is putting out for the next 7-10 days is nothing short of comical. Anywhere between 12 and 26" of snow for a large swath of the South and Midwest.

Comical, but I love it.