General Weather Discussion - February and March 2018

[Bobby821]

Looks like a possibility of severe weather coming up for Sunday 3/18 Will have to keep an eye on it as the system gets closer. Latest model runs want to bring in more moisture.

[Ian Drake]

I have a friend that is a OU grad student that is a meteorology major. He says we will really won't have much of a severe season if anything at all this year. So don't let these fearmongerers get to you. You will not have a tornado in your backyard at 4 pm in Yukon this weekend... or at any point this year.

Ian Drake

[Bellaboo]

I have a friend that is a OU grad student that is a meteorology major. He says we will really won't have much of a severe season if anything at all this year. So don't let these fearmongerers get to you. You will not have a tornado in your backyard at 4 pm in Yukon this weekend... or at any point this year.

Ian Drake

Hate to tell you this, but we have a few on this board that loves the destructive nature of our severe weather. You will see.

[BG918]

I have a friend that is a OU grad student that is a meteorology major. He says we will really won't have much of a severe season if anything at all this year. So don't let these fearmongerers get to you. You will not have a tornado in your backyard at 4 pm in Yukon this weekend... or at any point this year.

Ian Drake

That's ridiculous, there will be severe weather in Oklahoma this spring and likely a few tornado outbreaks. Moisture is an issue right now but the state hasn't even entered it's spring rainy season yet.

[SoonerDave]

I have a friend that is a OU grad student that is a meteorology major. He says we will really won't have much of a severe season if anything at all this year. So don't let these fearmongerers get to you. You will not have a tornado in your backyard at 4 pm in Yukon this weekend... or at any point this year.

Ian Drake

Here's hoping he's right - but I'm wondering...he hasn't been in Oklahoma very long, has he? Really dangerous to make those kinds of predictions IMHO. More reliance on the models.

We could have one of the relatively quietest tornado seasons on record in terms of number, but if just one of those rips through Moore or OKC or Bridge Creek or wherever.....how "quiet" the season is really won't matter.

[Of Sound Mind]

... or at any point this year.

It's this type of hyperbolic declarative statement — just like the doomsday predictions — that essentially disqualifies the prognosticator from serious consideration.

[Roger S]

It's this type of hyperbolic declarative statement — just like the doomsday predictions — that essentially disqualifies the prognosticator from serious consideration.

[bchris02]

I have a friend that is a OU grad student that is a meteorology major. He says we will really won't have much of a severe season if anything at all this year. So don't let these fearmongerers get to you. You will not have a tornado in your backyard at 4 pm in Yukon this weekend... or at any point this year.

Ian Drake

David Payne gave his outlook and his was much calmer than Jonathan Conder's. He's calling for a below-average season with a more active April and quieter May (the opposite of how the past several years have been).

Hate to tell you this, but we have a few on this board that loves the destructive nature of our severe weather. You will see.

Actually I can think of only one poster who gets giddy every time there is even a small chance of severe weather, sometimes so much so it seems like he's trolling. He is the only OKCTalk poster that I have on my ignore list.

[Bellaboo]

David Payne gave his outlook and his was much calmer than Jonathan Conder's. He's calling for a below-average season with a more active April and quieter May (the opposite of how the past several years have been).



Actually I can think of only one poster who gets giddy every time there is even a small chance of severe weather, sometimes so much so it seems like he's trolling. He is the only OKCTalk poster that I have on my ignore list.

Yep.... I think everyone that's been on here very long knows who this cat is.

[LakeEffect]

Contrast to Damon Lane, who said La Nina is ending, and years without La Nina are normal to over-active...

So, what we're all trying to say is, don't trust any long term predictions about the potential intensity of the coming storm season. As Rick Smith with our Norman NWS office says, tornadoes don't care what month it is.

[jn1780]

I have a friend that is a OU grad student that is a meteorology major. He says we will really won't have much of a severe season if anything at all this year. So don't let these fearmongerers get to you. You will not have a tornado in your backyard at 4 pm in Yukon this weekend... or at any point this year.

Ian Drake

Does your friend storm chase? I only hear people who are already pessimistic because of the slow start to the season speak in absolutes like this. Any model that goes out beyond a month is pretty much garbage.

Based on the last few years I will say there is a good chance that:
1. West will still be abnormally try.
2. What activity we do get could come later than usual. (late may or early June)
3. Anything can happen .

[Anonymous.]

Strong and cold winds will blast out of the NW today. This will lead to a cold start for Tuesday.

No legitimate precipitation chances until maybe in the first week of April. Fire danger will be extreme later this week into the weekend with highs climbing into low 80s.

[catcherinthewry]

He is the only OKCTalk poster that I have on my ignore list.

Same

[Anonymous.]

Enjoy today with basically no wind. Tomorrow and Friday will be extreme fire days with strong south winds. Saturday we should have lighter winds and it could be an awesome spring day in OK.

Sunday into next week things are turning around to better chances of rain with cooler temperatures.

[Bobby821]

Looks like Sunday afternoon 3-25-2018 will be our first shot of Severe weather for this upcoming series of storms. Hail and Low tornado threat looks most likely at this time.

[OkiePoke]

Looks like Sunday afternoon 3-25-2018 will be our first shot of Severe weather for this upcoming series of storms. Hail and Low tornado threat looks most likely at this time.

Do you have an approximate time? Are we looking at 1:00 or closer to 4/5?

[Bobby821]

Do you have an approximate time? Are we looking at 1:00 or closer to 4/5?

This is just a broad overview as it is still early. Too early to get into those specifics yet check back on Saturday when we are in the 24 hr window.

[OkiePoke]

This is just a broad overview as it is still early. Too early to get into those specifics yet check back on Saturday when we are in the 24 hr window.

Thanks. I figured it would be difficult to know this far out.

[Bobby821]

For those of you who knew Venture from here on OKC Talk, he now has a new site he is working on I will put the link to it below. This new site will cover severe weather for our state as well as other states and will have a chat on it where we can hang out in on severe weather days like the old Weather Spotlight site had. Here is info on the site and the link to it. He is still having some minor issues with the site so it might show as not found but will work shortly.

Big news! Sort of. The new website is up and going and will be flushed out as we make our way into Spring. It has been a struggle in recent years to find a platform that will work for everyone. Our new website allows for specific geographic regions to have their own discussion section. Users can join the various areas they wish and will see a feed of all the discussion on their dashboard.
This is really new, so there will probably be some growing pains. Looking for a ton of feedback on features, what can be done better, etc. Please check out the site. You can view the site as a guest, but the individual regions will require you to register for the site.

http://www.wxstuff.com/index.php?r=d...rd%2Fdashboard

[Anonymous.]

SPC has a 15% probability for severe weather across TX/OK for Monday evening.

Models hinting @ multiple rounds of storms across several days, likely producing heavy rainfall. However, most of the concentration is across southeast OK (surprise surprise) where the drought is non-existent.

[Celebrator]

SPC has a 15% probability for severe weather across TX/OK for Monday evening.

Models hinting @ multiple rounds of storms across several days, likely producing heavy rainfall. However, most of the concentration is across southeast OK (surprise surprise) where the drought is non-existent.

Can someone please explain why the rain falls in this state the way it does...with increasing amounts from west to east (generally)? I genuinely want to understand from a nitty-gritty scientific standpoint.

[pw405]

For those of you who knew Venture from here on OKC Talk, he now has a new site he is working on I will put the link to it below. This new site will cover severe weather for our state as well as other states and will have a chat on it where we can hang out in on severe weather days like the old Weather Spotlight site had. Here is info on the site and the link to it. He is still having some minor issues with the site so it might show as not found but will work shortly.

Big news! Sort of. The new website is up and going and will be flushed out as we make our way into Spring. It has been a struggle in recent years to find a platform that will work for everyone. Our new website allows for specific geographic regions to have their own discussion section. Users can join the various areas they wish and will see a feed of all the discussion on their dashboard.
This is really new, so there will probably be some growing pains. Looking for a ton of feedback on features, what can be done better, etc. Please check out the site. You can view the site as a guest, but the individual regions will require you to register for the site.

http://www.wxstuff.com/index.php?r=d...rd%2Fdashboard

What happened to Venture? I used to love his posts! Thankfully Anonymous is still here!

[BG918]

Can someone please explain why the rain falls in this state the way it does...with increasing amounts from west to east (generally)? I genuinely want to understand from a nitty-gritty scientific standpoint.

I'm sure someone else can get more into the science but basically it has to do with the Great Plains being on the dry side of the Rocky Mountains until you get far enough east where the Gulf of Mexico can provide moisture for storm systems moving west to east. This map shows this pretty well:


Notice the higher totals in SE OK and SW AR where the higher elevations enhance precip.

[Celebrator]

I'm sure someone else can get more into the science but basically it has to do with the Great Plains being on the dry side of the Rocky Mountains until you get far enough east where the Gulf of Mexico can provide moisture for storm systems moving west to east. This map shows this pretty well

Notice the higher totals in SE OK and SW AR where the higher elevations enhance precip.

Love this map. Wow we are literally one county away from the higher totals. And I thought it might have something to do with the outer reaches of the Rocky Mountain rain shadow. And take a look at the Kansas City and STL metros, basically cut in half with two zones!
Interesting, thanks for posting this.

[Anonymous.]

I think Venture moved to Ohio or something? Not exactly sure where.

BG918 is pretty much correct. Storm systems don't tap into the juicy stuff until further east. Also storms that do develop across the western sides of the state and into Texas are usually the first time they're developing. And storms by nature are obviously more isolated @ initial development. This is why severe storms here are more the norm, isolated storms have much more potential for becoming severe than when they eventually develop into a large MCS and just become a huge line or bulb of rain and storms. Next time there is severe weather across C OK, watch how it evolves as it heads east eventually into Arkansas and Missouri where it just becomes a large mess of rain and storms as opposed to very localized supercells.