General Weather Discussion - June 2015

[John1744]

Using GRLevel3 radar program, does the KTLX radar have a much longer range than other radars? It's currently picking up rain all the way to Dallas, I don't remember it ever having that range before. Or maybe they've oriented the radar to just scan that area because of the storm?

[Anonymous.]

I am not sure if they have done so, but the likely answer is the tilt is adjusted to a very low angle.

[turnpup]

How many cubits in a foot?

^^^^^

Love it!!!

[sayyes]

GFS slides track a littler further east.

Models are basically in agreement that a sharp NE turn is about to occur. This will spare most of OKC and possibly Tulsa metros.

We just moved dozens of sandbags. This news is kind of disappointing after that.

[BB37]

How many cubits in a foot?

"What's a cubit?"

[yukong]

"What's a cubit?"

I'm curious to see who gets the reference. "Right".

[Bunty]

Rainfall amounts from the storm in Texas have ranged between 1 and 4 inches. So together with the cloud cover holding down the heating this afternoon, the rainfall amounts may not be too overwhelming in a number of places unless it stalls out. We'll see.

[venture]

Latest Model Rainfall Predictions

4km 12Z NAM



12Z GFS

[venture]

Front/boundary seems to be setting up from Miami - Nowata - Cleveland - Perkins - Edmond - Union City - Anadarko - Cache. Locations north and west of that area will probably seem some rain but none of the extremely heavy amounts. South and east of the line will be the locations most likely to get the heaviest.

[venture]

Upgrade to SLIGHT RISK for much of Eastern OK for increased tornado threat.

[Jim Kyle]

I'm curious to see who gets the reference. "Right".

Specifications for Noah's boat-building project. As for how many per foot, approximately 2/3...

[Bunty]

Dick Faurot's Weather Blog: Oklahoma May Be in for a Perfect St - NewsOn6.com - Tulsa, OK - News, Weather, Video and Sports - KOTV.com |

[LakeEffect]

dick faurot's weather blog: Oklahoma may be in for a perfect st - newson6.com - tulsa, ok - news, weather, video and sports - kotv.com |

nm

[LocoAko]

WPC Met Watch



MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0234
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
250 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTHERN TX AND SOUTHERN OK

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 171849Z - 180049Z

SUMMARY...EFFICIENT CORE RAINFALL FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL
COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AS ITS FORWARD PROGRESS SLOWS.

DISCUSSION...THE CORE PRECIPITATION FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL
HAS BEEN WARM TOPPED, BUT EFFICIENT. HOURLY RAIN RATES REMAIN IN
THE 0.5-1" RANGE, NEAR THE BORDER OF A LONGER DURATION FLOOD AND
FLASH FLOOD EVENT. SOME SLOWING HAS BEEN SEEN IN ITS FORWARD
MOTION AS THE CYCLONE ROUNDS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, WHICH COULD LEAD TO AN
INCREASED FLASH FLOOD THREAT. MIXED LAYER CAPES REMAIN MEAGER,
WITH 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE CONSTRICTED TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF ITS CIRCULATION. INFLOW AT 850 HPA REMAINS
30-50 KTS, CLOSE TO DOUBLE THE MEAN 850-400 HPA WIND IN THE
REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.2-2.5" LIE IN THE AREA PER
GPS INFORMATION.

THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUPPORTS LOCAL 3-5" RAIN AMOUNTS
WITH BILL'S CORE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, WITH THE 06Z AND 12Z
SSEO NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES SHOWING AN INCREASING FLASH FLOOD
THREAT THROUGH 01Z (USING THE THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE AS A
GUIDE). WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1.5" POSSIBLE, FLASH FLOODING
IS A CONCERN OVER SATURATED SOILS.

ROTH

[LocoAko]

nm; double post

[OkieHornet]

NWS Norman ‏@NWSNorman 2m 2 minutes ago
One forecast vs reality difference with #Bill - most precip is on N and W side instead of E side.

[Anonymous.]

Ardmore area is approaching 4 inches.

[Roger S]

All this talk about Tropical Depression is making me want to go to my happy place in the mountains.

4" at Ardmore means my pond is going over both spillways... A 4" rain can raise my pond over 6' and I was at full capacity already.

[Anonymous.]

Last couple scans down in Fort Worth show the low has possibly made the turn NE.

If this is the case and the storm continues NE and not due North, the heavy rain line would run about:

Waurika to south of Purcell to east of Shawnee to near Inola on the south and east sides of Tulsa.

[jn1780]

The areas where the boundary has passed by will stay mostly dry. This is the "brick wall" that the tropical system has run into and is now pulled northeast along this front.

[Uncle Slayton]

Last couple scans down in Fort Worth show the low has possibly made the turn NE.

If this is the case and the storm continues NE and not due North, the heavy rain line would run about:

Waurika to south of Purcell to east of Shawnee to near Inola on the south and east sides of Tulsa.

So, Norman is out of this?

[Anonymous.]

So, Norman is out of this?

Yea, in terms of flooding rainfall. Most of OKC metro will still get some rain, but nothing to be alarmed about.

The low is shoving off to the northeast now, so the area I mentioned above is where the general cutoff of heaviest rain will be.

[OkieHornet]

would love to go to the tedeschi trucks band concert at the zoo tonight and not stand in a deluge for hours...

[venture]

Yea, in terms of flooding rainfall. Most of OKC metro will still get some rain, but nothing to be alarmed about.

The low is shoving off to the northeast now, so the area I mentioned above is where the general cutoff of heaviest rain will be.

You are talking about Norman remember. :-P One inch leads to flooding.

Norman will probably be on the edge of the heavy rainfall as we progress through the evening.

[Bunty]

Ardmore area is approaching 4 inches.

Mesonet has it over 5" in Burneyville to the southwest of there.