General Weather Discussion - February 2014

[riflesforwatie]

Thankfully it looks like the main body of the snow will hold off until 6 AM, when my flight leaves OKC. How ironic it would be to be delayed/canceled trying to fly to AMS!

[venture]

New Update from Norman...and the snow totals are going up again.

[venture]

New HRRR just took a big jog to the east.

[ljbab728]

Yeah!!!

[venture]

Yeah!!!

Now now. We need the moisture. Drought is already back in the Metro and I'd prefer a short fire season.

Some quick observations of this specific run of the HRRR, it isn't initializing nor handling precip correctly. The 06Z time frame, which is now, it has nothing east of the I-27 (and further south out of LBB) area. However, we actually have precip/rain/snow over much of the TX PH just north and also south of I-40 down to just north of I-20. So we need to keep that in mind when looking at any of these model outputs - especially if it can't even handle what is going on now to a few hours out form initialization.

[Anonymous.]

Yikes. This is going to be total crapshoot. I don't know anymore!!!!!

I am just mad that I will refresh the radar over 9000 times tonight until.

[SoonerDave]

So at this point we really just start watching radar and holding our breath pretty much, no?

[venture]

HRRR 4Z Update is really diving further to the SE. Looking at the 7Z hour which is where we are now, it does finally pick up on the band of freezing rain and sleet we are seeing from the area near Crowell, TX down through Guthrie and Post, TX. A couple takeaways from this:

1) It doesn't have a handle on the intensity of the precip falling, so that is something to consider.

2) It is completely ignoring the falling snow in the TX Panhandle moving into W OK right now. Ignore this part is going to have a big impact on snowfall forecast amounts.

[venture]

00Z Euro total precip amount for Norman is around 0.3" liquid which would work out to about 3 inches of snow.

[Anonymous.]

Echos coming up over WC and C OK now. Should start seeing the ceiling lower and drizzle/snow showers beginning.

[venture]

Echos coming up over WC and C OK now. Should start seeing the ceiling lower and drizzle/snow showers beginning.

Yup, seeing that as well. I'm tossing out the HRRR right now since it isn't handling this precip forming over OK right now.

[venture]

5Z HRRR is getting a handle on the ongoing precip a bit better. It is still about 30 miles too far south.

06Z NAM keeps a VERY tight gradient right near I-44.
Through 6AM.... Norman: Trace ; OKC - None
6AM to 9AM.... Norman: 1" ; OKC - Trace to 1/2"
9AM to 12PM.... Norman: 2-3"; OKC - 2" or Less
12PM to 3PM.... Norman: 1"; OKC - Trace to 1/2"
3PM to 6PM.... Norman: Trace; OKC - None

Totals.... Norman: 4-5"; OKC... 1-3"

[venture]

First mPING report of snow near Central OK...around Dibble just a few minutes ago.

Heavy Precip approaching SW OK.

[venture]

6Z HRRR bringing a general 2-3" snowfall for much of the Metro now, but really beats down the precip shield coming in from the west now in favor of another up through North Texas. As Dave stated earlier...it pretty much is time to just sit back and let it play out now.

[Anonymous.]

Here we go. Echos rapidly increasing between Clinton and Lawton.

[venture]

Flurries in Norman now.

[Anonymous.]

Getting some solid banding forming in E TX panhandle into WC OK. Looks like a heavier band getting established running SW to NE just east of Clinton.

[Anonymous.]

Looks like SC OK could get a sleet fest instead of snow. At least right now that is some major sleet plumes moving up. Looks like heavy snow, but is mostly sleet.

[Anonymous.]

Should see an MD out for SW into C OK soon for heavy snowfall rates.

[venture]

As expected...7Z HRRR is snapping back. Bringing heavy snow band back to the NW closer to the I-44 area. Brings 3-6" snows back to Norman.

[Anonymous.]

I think sleet is really messing with amounts right now. The banding developing over Lawton currently looks to have sleet mixed in.

Out in WC OK, snow bands continue to grow in the Elk City area down though Childress.

[OKCisOK4me]

NW OKC has notta going on.

[venture]

Looks like the hvy snow band is establishing itself from Vernon-Lawton-Chickasha-Norman. Still very early in the formation, but seems the logical location right now. Heavier precip showing up around Lawton, even when disregarding the enhancement to the returns from the wind farms.

[Anonymous.]

Norman is for sure in the hot seat right now. Can't wait for the snow to hit population that has internet here in C OK. (lol) I want to see snowfall rate reports.

[venture]

Good view of the band forming up.