General Weather Discussion - February 2014

[ou48A]

Looks like a copy paste forecast this week. 40s and touching to low 50s some days in the sun this week. Rain chances Friday into Saturday. And like V mentioned, armageddon Sunday into Monday. Lol.

By Armageddon does that mean we need to be concerned about a genuine blizzard?
Thanks

[venture]

Looks like a copy paste forecast this week. 40s and touching to low 50s some days in the sun this week. Rain chances Friday into Saturday. And like V mentioned, armageddon Sunday into Monday. Lol.

At least it is consistent. LOL

[venture]

Oh GFS...

So the end of the world winter storm solution remains for another run. Here is the QPF amounts and I tried to draw the freezing line on each one (I switched to white on one to see it a bit better)...



Right now for OKC, the upper air profile suggests majority of precip will be freezing rain with some sleet early on and at the end. The tail end would also include some snow mixing in.

Upper air sounding for the 156 hr forecast, which has the heaviest precip...



Red line is air temp and you can see at the surface it is below 0°C (temps at the bottom) but as you go up about 1000m it warms up above freezing. Classic freezing rain setup.

[s00nr1]

12Z GFS continues to paint a rather nasty picture for the Sun-Mon timeframe. We are still a bit too far out for specifics but there is definitely a concern for ice.

[LakeEffect]

Consistency is key... in this case, consistency can be king.

[SoonerDave]

An ice storm just before the OKC mayoral election???

Hmmmm.............

[venture]

An ice storm just before the OKC mayoral election???

Hmmmm.............

Good thing we aren't in Hell, Michigan or the results may be different.

[PennyQuilts]

Well, Mr. Ice, hurry up and hit before the trees bud.

[Of Sound Mind]

An ice storm just before the OKC mayoral election???

Hmmmm.............

I know, right?

Now, who to blame?

[ou48A]

CH 9 at noon indicated to be on the lookout for a ice storm Sunday in the OKC area

[venture]

And the hype begins. LOL

[ou48A]

And the hype begins. LOL

It was Lacy.S..... She stayed pretty laid back about it..... but like several others here she was just letting us know about the possibility's..... Which IMHO is what she should do.
I for one appreciate knowing when there is likely an ice/ snow/ storm/ tornado risk as far out as reasonably possible.

It's one reason why I read thread's like this.

[Of Sound Mind]

And the hype begins. LOL

I saw such "hype" here first.

[venture]

It was Lacy.S..... She stayed pretty laid back about it..... but like several others here she was just letting us know about the possibility's..... Which IMHO is what she should do.
I for one appreciate knowing when there is likely an ice/ snow/ storm/ tornado risk as far out as reasonably possible.

It's one reason why I read thread's like this.

Oh for sure. I'm not bad mouthing Lacy at all. Just that as soon as one media outlet gets it out there, its going to take off and go crazy.

[venture]

12Z Euro model is night an day from GFS.

Freezing line only makes it to around Kingfisher from the NW. Metro stays above freezing mostly. Precip extremely light in most areas.

[Plutonic Panda]

An ice storm just before the OKC mayoral election???

Hmmmm.............

I keep telling people, it's HAARP

[bchris02]

I saw such "hype" here first.

KFOR is forecasting rain as of right now.

[venture]

18Z GFS keep us mostly above freezing but the vast majority of precip to the SE.

[Uncle Slayton]

18Z GFS keep us mostly above freezing but the vast majority of precip to the SE.

Agonizing. Makes trip planning for the weekend almost impossible.

[ljbab728]

KFOR is forecasting rain as of right now.

And what I saw only had rain on Sunday with temps up into the 40's on Monday. I'm thinking the worry about hype is being over hyped.

[venture]

And what I saw only had rain on Sunday with temps up into the 40's on Monday. I'm thinking the worry about hype is being over hyped.

LOL yeah probably. Though I haven't look at Tuttle's FB page yet.

00Z GFS dries it out even further.

[catch22]

In all seriousness, bchris, why get nervous? Being nervous isn't going to do one thing to change a weather pattern or alter the strength of a tornado or the diameter of a hailstone. I realize some folks worry more than others about weather - we're each wired a little differently - but I hate to see someone express such a level of worry about our traditional spring storm season before we're even out of February. I'd just encourage you to enjoy today - try not to sweat the stuff you can't do anything about. Don't let tomorrow's potential tornado do any damage in your head today. Not at all meaning to be snarky or anything - just encouraging - we've had some beautiful weather the last few days - would hate to think you cost yourself the enjoyment of them because of concerns about a potential storm. Heck, keeping us reasonably informed is what the good folks here like Venture and Anon et al are all about - to keep the stress and angst level down.

Enjoy your day!

bchris02, use this logic chart.

[Dennis Heaton]

Television ain't what it used to be...but in OKC, it's a kick to watch all the weather folks...oops, I mean Meteorologist, when a "storm" of some kind is approaching Oklahoma from way up in the Canadian territories. It is indeed entertaining. Better stock up on some more popcorn.

[Of Sound Mind]

bchris02, use this logic chart.

Excellent!

[Anonymous.]

General model trend for Sunday-Monday is down on storm potential. There are some signs of March 5th being something to look at, but still very distant.

I think we are seeing the drought really manipulate our weather again. We have not had good moisture in almost 3 months.