General Weather Discussion - January/February 2015

[BB37]

Did anybody else see wet flakes yesterday in OKC at roughly 5-6 PM with a temp of 49F? It was pretty insane.

Yep. I drove into a rain/snow/sleet (raisneet?) mix at Council &Wilshire about 5:30 PM.

[BB37]

[QUOTE=s00nr1;869055]Here is an entirely too early snowfall forecast via the GFS:

Our internal ECMWF running with a similar solution:

Way too soon for a bread & milk run. I'll settle for "wet."

[Bobby821]

Any new model updates on this storm for the second half of next week? 25th - March 1st?

[Anonymous.]

GFS 12Z is really random. I think it is an outlier run and probably isn't worth mentioning. Just for kicks, it brings a quick follow-up storm to this weekend that hits OK and N TX with a snowstorm on Monday. Then brings in the next system heading into next weekend with snow.

One thing that has been consistent, is it will be COLD for what looks like through the beginning of March.

[Bobby821]

GFS 12Z is really random. I think it is an outlier run and probably isn't worth mentioning. Just for kicks, it brings a quick follow-up storm to this weekend that hits OK and N TX with a snowstorm on Monday. Then brings in the next system heading into next weekend with snow.

One thing that has been consistent, is it will be COLD for what looks like through the beginning of March.

Well, I could go for a Monday snowstorm keep us posted on that if it continues to verify. I am hearing rumblings in other places and from NWS on the storm for next week. We need good cold air for snow so that is good. on a side note how do things look for Sunday afternoon this comming weekend the 22nd? have a birthday party planned for that afternoon with people driving in from Shawnee.

[venture]

Well, I could go for a Monday snowstorm keep us posted on that if it continues to verify. I am hearing rumblings in other places and from NWS on the storm for next week. We need good cold air for snow so that is good. on a side note how do things look for Sunday afternoon this comming weekend the 22nd? have a birthday party planned for that afternoon with people driving in from Shawnee.

Well the Monday system...snowstorm should be used loosely depending on where you are. If 12Z GFS verifies...Northeast OK would have next to nothing. Maybe an inch central. Then mainly 1-3" NW through southern OK...higher amounts in North Texas and along the river. This just isn't our year.

[venture]

Well just about to stick a fork in this one too unless something dramatically changes. Below is total precip through Tuesday.

[Anonymous.]

Yea 18Z is a mess. I have decided that winter storms more than 24 hours out is basically impossible to forecast for OK.

[venture]

Yea 18Z is a mess. I have decided that winter storms more than 24 hours out is basically impossible to forecast for OK.

Yeah the models are just not able to handle anything this year. Not sure if it is just a moisture issue with the drought or what screwing them up.

[Anonymous.]

GFS coming in with shot at rain/storms late tonight into tomorrow for about the NE half of OK.

Then cold air rushes in behind. A stalled out Low over the CO/NM border churns away and spits out pieces of energy (this is the storm that GFS was projecting to just come out full blown over the S Plains in the middle of the week. So right now it looks like it will bring up a small system across TX and kind of tap into the main low in CO. This will result in a very tough forecast for Sunday into Monday and eventually next weekend.

Accumulating snow across OK looks likely somewhere in OK Sunday night, best guess is somewhere in SW or SC OK where a band coming out of TX could be strong. Looks like Dallas area could have an icestorm, or sleet, or maybe just rain. All depends on the track and deepness of the cold air behind this first wave that will affect mostly AR into TN.

Looking ahead into next week, another chance at a system comes through around Friday, which also looks like winter.


So overall, the forecast is low confidence, but I will say that it looks like we will be cold and relatively active for a while - even looking beyond next week.

[yukong]

For what it's worth...I see that the NWS has issued a Special Weather Statement for much of the state including the Metro counties for accumulating snow Saturday night and Sunday. Not a lot different from what you guys are saying here, but the NWS is issuing a SWS.

[venture]

The crazy Canadian model this morning...

[okatty]

Thanks to you guys' models, I am going to be first in line at the grocery store!

[silvergrove]

I wonder if the local meteorologists have invested in stocks for bread and milk companies.

[s00nr1]

00z NAM coming more in line with the Canadian model. Widespread 2-8" totals across OK.

[Bobby821]

00z NAM coming more in line with the Canadian model. Widespread 2-8" totals across OK.

What day are we talking about for this?

[Anonymous.]

NAM is basically putting a pretty decent snowband over C OK for Sunday eve. And then a large swath of snow moves up across state late Sunday night into Monday morning. GFS hinting at a further north track, which would bring heavier snow into southern parts of OK. GEM is also bullseyeing C OK for heavy snow.


GFS's late next week into the weekend storm looks epic. Then a train of storms coming through on long-range into March. Oh and temperatures that make your bones ache.

[venture]

GFS's late next week into the weekend storm looks epic. Then a train of storms coming through on long-range into March. Oh and temperatures that make your bones ache.

Hopefully we get some moisture and it holds true. As far as bone aching temps, my family was down to nearly 20 below this morning. Tis the season. LOL

[venture]

Short term update...line of showers from NE OK through Glencoe, Stillwater, Guthrie and Cashion. Don't be shocked to hear a clap of thunder tonight.

[venture]

Snowfall forecast...

06Z GFS


06Z NAM


00Z GEM

[s00nr1]

Not looking good for my OKC-DFW-MCO route at 11am Monday.

[s00nr1]

Here are some fun 10-day totals:

Euro:



GFS:

[s00nr1]

18Z NAM rolling in....with some pretty impressive totals:

[venture]

Looks like everyone is locked into a heavy band of snow over some portion from Central or SC into SE OK.

[John1744]

Looks like everyone is locked into a heavy band of snow over some portion from Central or SC into SE OK.

For tomorrow/Monday or just throughout the week?