General Weather Discussion - February 2014

[venture]

At least we're not in the coldest part of the outlook for late February:

That's a probably of below normal chart. If our normal high 50, and there is no doubt we'll be in the 40s for that entire 6-10 day outlook...we would be in the dark color. This is where it is important to understand what is being presented.

[ou48A]

At least we're not in the coldest part of the outlook for late February:

Have the Great lakes ever been completely 100% frozen....?

We might get close if that’s accurate and continues.

[silvergrove]

Wednesday might have a greater risk of severe weather than previous thought...we just have to see how things develop.

Any updates on this?

[venture]

Have the Great lakes ever been completely 100% frozen....?

We might get close if that’s accurate and continues.

Not to my knowledge, at least in modern recorded time from what I can find. We might hit a record, but no where close to 100%.

[venture]

Any updates on this?

Cap should hold, so risk will be negated by that.

[ou48A]

That's a good map.
Thanks

[venture]

Slight Risk of severe today for far NE OK. Hail is the main threat with some wind.

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS INTO OZARKS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT...


THE ATMOSPHERIC RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING WRN U.S. TROUGH WILL
PROMOTE LEE CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...ALONG
WITH THE FORMATION OF A SLY LLJ ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE GREAT
PLAINS LATER TODAY INTO NIGHT. THESE PROCESSES WILL ENHANCE THE NWD
TRANSPORT OF AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WITHIN THE EXPANDING
WARM SECTOR WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 F. THIS MOISTENING WILL OFFSET ONLY MODEST DAYTIME HEATING
TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 500-1000 J/KG.


LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN
CAPPED TO SURFACE-BASED INITIATION WITH ELEVATED TSTMS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE BETWEEN 21-00Z NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT OVER
N-CNTRL/NERN OK INTO SERN KS. HERE...STRENGTHENING WAA ALONG THE
EVOLVING LLJ WILL BE AUGMENTED BY DCVA ATTENDANT TO A LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EMERGING FROM THE SRN ROCKIES. THE PRIMARY HAZARD
APPEARS TO BE SEVERE HAIL GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY COOL
MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND STRONG CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR.


EXPECT TSTMS TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OVERNIGHT FROM ERN KS EWD
TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY ALONG A STRENGTHENING/BROADENING NOCTURNAL
LLJ. ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF HAIL APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.


..MEAD/SMITH.. 02/19/2014

[venture]

For the rest of us...we'll be getting blown away...

[s00nr1]

We are working on some long-term products this morning in the office and I got a nice chuckle when I saw this:

[LakeEffect]

We are working on some long-term products this morning in the office and I got a nice chuckle when I saw this:

OK, for the novice, does that model show a temp of 5-10 for March 1?

[venture]

OK, for the novice, does that model show a temp of 5-10 for March 1?

Yup.

[LakeEffect]

Yup.

Fun.

[Anonymous.]

Not only cold, but GFS makes it snow for about 3 days around that same time.

[LakeEffect]

Not only cold, but GFS makes it snow for about 3 days around that same time.

10 days out is hard to believe though, right? I do wish we'd receive moisture, especially further west.

[Anonymous.]

Yes, anything long range is usually overblown and most of the time completely dissolves. But it is still a decent indicator of general trend of active/nonactive patterns.

[venture]

Morgan will have his sparkle ties on today and get the hype going I'm sure.

[okcboomer]

Morgan will have his sparkle ties on today and get the hype going I'm sure.

Payne will defiantly get the hype going as well. This will be fun to watch.

[bchris02]

Payne will defiantly get the hype going as well. This will be fun to watch.

I am already starting to get extremely nervous and anxious about the upcoming tornado season. When some people say they are ready for spring I usually say "I'm not!" Am I alone in that?

[venture]

Oh I can start (this is still from the 12Z run)... AAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!

[okcboomer]

I am already starting to get extremely nervous and anxious about the upcoming tornado season. When some people say they are ready for spring I usually say "I'm not!" Am I alone in that?

Well this is where I get nervous. Not the dusting of snow or the #5 winter storm that does nothing.

[okcboomer]

Oh I can start (this is still from the 12Z run)... AAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!

What does this mean?

[venture]

What does this mean?

That is total snow depth by that time...so 6AM March 3rd. That would include anything else that has fallen since then.

[LakeEffect]

Which puts OKC in the 1-6" range... shift it west and see it actually verify, we could be up to 12". One can only hope.

[yukong]

Some of our best and biggest snows have been in March.

[Bunty]

I am already starting to get extremely nervous and anxious about the upcoming tornado season. When some people say they are ready for spring I usually say "I'm not!" Am I alone in that?

I'm fully ready for tornado season every spring and not getting nervous and anxious about it. This is because my house has a safe room.