General Weather Discussion - February 2014

[venture]

Confirmed snowfall in Okarche right now on mPING.

[OKCRT]

Confirmed snowfall in Okarche right now on mPING.

Just went to store and stocked up on bread and milk. How long will we be on lockdown for? When does the show start in NW OKC?

[OKCisOK4me]

Landing in OKC at 11:05. Not gonna spend the night at the airport lol.

[venture]

A few counties were upgrades to a Winter Storm Warning due to some localized higher snow amounts.

WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVA...CHEROKEE...MEDFORD...ENID...
PERRY
958 PM CST MON FEB 10 2014


...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST
TUESDAY...


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST
TUESDAY.


* TIMING: SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 3 AM
TONIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING. A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW HAS DEVELOPED NEAR A ALVA TO PERRY LINE. THE SNOW
WILL DIMINISH SLOWLY AFTER 3 AM TONIGHT AND END BY NOON TUESDAY.


* MAIN IMPACT: TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 6 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY NEAR A ALVA TO
CHEROKEE TO ENID TO PERRY LINE. 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL HAVE
ALREADY BEEN REPORTED FROM ALVA TO PERRY.

[venture]

Latest HRRR snowfall forecast pretty much has nothing at all for the immediately metro area. Current radar is showing the earlier hint that things would straddle the farther northern area of the metro area is playing out for the most past.

[okcboomer]

Well looks like winter storm #5 or 6 or whatever it was called was another dud. Lol. So this what, 2 -3 week stretch of 5 to 6 "winter storms" netted OKC like 4 inches of snow. I said the hype machine would be in full force, and the tv weatherhypemen didn't disappoint. Here's to spring!

[Anonymous.]

Amazing heavy band last night up there in NW OK. That thing put out 9+ inches of snow in a very small stretch. Shows just how difficult it is to forecast rogue snow bands.

[Dubya61]

So, Venture, Anon, et al.
Tell me, again, how easy it is to predict the weather in Oklahoma?
Is it true that the local media outlets are going to stop forecasting and start now-casting?
No disrespect intended at ALL. I've no idea how y'all can do it and still pretend to be sane.

[Bunty]

Amazing heavy band last night up there in NW OK. That thing put out 9+ inches of snow in a very small stretch. Shows just how difficult it is to forecast rogue snow bands.

At least Oklahoma City didn't get the worst part of it for a change. Stillwater only got around 1 1/2".

[Of Sound Mind]

Well looks like winter storm #5 or 6 or whatever it was called was another dud. Lol. So this what, 2 -3 week stretch of 5 to 6 "winter storms" netted OKC like 4 inches of snow. I said the hype machine would be in full force, and the tv weatherhypemen didn't disappoint. Here's to spring!

I'm looking forward to okcboomer's expert analysis and can't-miss forecasts going forward.

[okcboomer]

50/50 shot at precipitation. Hey mike Morgan, those streets were very slick this morning. Is that better, of sound mind?

[SOONER8693]

[QUOTE=okcboomer;746069]Well looks like winter storm #5 or 6 or whatever it was called was another dud. Lol. So this what, 2 -3 week stretch of 5 to 6 "winter storms" netted OKC like 4 inches of snow. I said the hype machine would be in full force, and the tv weatherhypemen didn't disappoint. Here's to spring![/QUOTEThe wife and I drove from OKC to Wichita/Hutchinson Ks this morning from about 5:30 - 8:30. Was semi-concerned, wary of the Snowmaggedon that the Ch 4 weather clowns indicated was going on in the northern part of the state. It was real bad. I think I had to slow down from 75 to 70 at least twice. Basically dry with no snow except for about a 5 mile stretch. I am pissed that I allowed myself to get sucked in by these bozos again.

[Plutonic Panda]

Woodward, saw one with something like 8 inches, but couldn't find it again :/

[ljbab728]

[QUOTE=SOONER8693;746465]

Well looks like winter storm #5 or 6 or whatever it was called was another dud. Lol. So this what, 2 -3 week stretch of 5 to 6 "winter storms" netted OKC like 4 inches of snow. I said the hype machine would be in full force, and the tv weatherhypemen didn't disappoint. Here's to spring![/QUOTEThe wife and I drove from OKC to Wichita/Hutchinson Ks this morning from about 5:30 - 8:30. Was semi-concerned, wary of the Snowmaggedon that the Ch 4 weather clowns indicated was going on in the northern part of the state. It was real bad. I think I had to slow down from 75 to 70 at least twice. Basically dry with no snow except for about a 5 mile stretch. I am pissed that I allowed myself to get sucked in by these bozos again.

I see. So if the winter storms don't affect you directly it's of no consequence and all of the people that did get affected don't count. Gotcha.

[Anonymous.]

Apocalyptic storm right now along the entire east coast. Truly amazing, and looks like a weaker follow-up storm comes through the Carolinas right after.

For us, back to mild weather for a bit, but it looks like we may be entering another active period beginning around the 23rd. We need moisture badly.

[yukong]

For us, back to mild weather for a bit, but it looks like we may be entering another active period beginning around the 23rd. We need moisture badly.

When you say "active" please elaborate? The reason I ask is just this morning, I saw a report from Rick Mitchell, that the models he is reviewing show a return of the "polar vortex" and arctic air to Oklahoma and Texas about 11 days out. Is that potential in the works?

Let me also say thanks to all the Mets guys here on OKC Talk. You guys are great.

[venture]

When you say "active" please elaborate? The reason I ask is just this morning, I saw a report from Rick Mitchell, that the models he is reviewing show a return of the "polar vortex" and arctic air to Oklahoma and Texas about 11 days out. Is that potential in the works?

Let me also say thanks to all the Mets guys here on OKC Talk. You guys are great.

There looks to be another cool down coming around the 23rd, but that's really far out there. It doesn't look entirely long lived. Right now all precip forecasts keep every chance east of I-35. Fire weather risks are going up starting this week and the drought continues to expand.

Starting around the 20th (give or take), chance of storms - maybe a start to the severe season - over SC and Eastern OK look possible. This isn't unusual as the severe season normally starts in the East first, but usually that's in March/Early April. Of course by this time of the year, we normally are seeing the first rounds of severe weather over the Southeast US - not snow and ice storms. For January we only had 4 reported tornadoes in the US. The 3 year running average is 57 but in 2011 we did only have 16. Of course 2011 turned out to be one of the nastiest years ever on record.

[venture]

Forecast looks pretty dry next several days. Depending on the model a person favors, chances of storms moves into the state for either Thursday (Euro) or Friday (GFS). At this time it will be too warm for winter precip so this will be more akin to spring type weather. Instability will be in place to permit, perhaps, some isolated marginal severe storms.

Further out looking at the 18Z GFS run, winter appears to be essentially done. That doesn't mean run out and start planting. There are still going to be days where temps get below freezing, but the several day cold snaps aren't in the picture at the moment. We might have a storm system around the first of March that could bring snow and winter precip to the state, but that is way out there - so don't get your sleds ready yet.

Severe weather days appear limited to just the 21st (again per GFS). This would be mainly east of I-35 and moving quickly into the Miss Valley on Saturday. Keep in mind that this time of year through a good portion of March, the severe weather season is typically going from the Miss Valley to the east. So far we haven't really see that. I doubt it has any impact on delaying ours, but just keep in mind the norm for this time of year. Also this is the time when storms pop up and race E or NE at 5 kajillion miles per hour.

Fire weather outlook doesn't look terrible, but some possible extreme days coming up. Weds the 19th (SW), Thurs the 20th (W/C), Friday the 21st (W), and Sunday the 23rd (Statewide) are all looking to be days where conditions may get pretty favorable for the spread of wildfires. We'll just need to be careful. Things won't start greening up for probably another month.

That's all I know for now. Enjoy the springlike temps and get the salt off your cars before it starts eating away at it.

[Easy180]

Know it's gonna be a windy day when it wakes you up lol

[venture]

Looks like we'll miss out on the severe weather this week, but it seems as if it is going to be a bit bumpy for many folks...

[venture]

12Z GFS bringing in chance of freezing rain to snow next Tuesday. Looks like around 0.2 to 0.3" of precip possible. Temps will be be borderline during the initial onset of precip but will cool through the day. We'll see how it evolves.

[venture]

18Z GFS has gone to more snow for next Tuesday, still chance for winter to return.

[venture]

Wednesday might have a greater risk of severe weather than previous thought...we just have to see how things develop.

[Anonymous.]

A nice heavy wet snow to send winter off would be amazing. But I won't hold my breath on a 7 day.

[Bunty]

At least we're not in the coldest part of the outlook for late February: