General Weather Discussion - July 2016

[LakeEffect]

Ok guys, How likely is this to happen? this is a post from Mike Morgan

SVR WX Possible this evening....ENHANCED RISK West OK...towards OKC Metro....If Storms Form, Big Hail and TOR Psbl

He has an enhanced risk out fro SW into Central Oklahoma for this evening. David Payne looks like has us dry this evening with only 30% chances in the West. Any ideas on what's most likely to happen?

Another News9 meteorologist tweeted that OKC's risk would enhance overnight... maybe that's what Mike is leaning into?

[Bobby821]

Another News9 meteorologist tweeted that OKC's risk would enhance overnight... maybe that's what Mike is leaning into?

I don't know, I guess we will see soon enough.

[Anonymous.]

MD coming out for W OK and TX PH:



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1279
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0505 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...TX AND OK PANHANDLES...WRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 142205Z - 150000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OK AND
TX PANHANDLES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY AFFECT SWRN OK LATER THIS
EVENING. WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE ISSUED
OVER THE NEXT HOUR.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NEAR
CANNON NM EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK TO AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS LOCALLY ENHANCED.
ALONG AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THESE BOUNDARIES...A MOIST AIRMASS IS
IN PLACE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS FROM THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 F. THIS IS
RESULTING IN A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WHERE THE
RAP IS ESTIMATING MLCAPE VALUES FROM 2500 TO 3500 J/KG AND ENOUGH
VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SOME SUPERCELL RISK ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND
SWRN OK. AGGRAVATED CUMULUS TOWERS ARE EVIDENT ALONG THE FRONT OVER
THE SERN TX PANHANDLE ON THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS
SHOULD BE WHERE INITIATION TAKES PLACE OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS
THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY DEVELOP. THE LATEST ESRL HRRR AGREES WITH
THIS SCENARIO WITH A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ESEWD
FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO SWRN OK BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THE
HRRR ALSO DEVELOPS A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER NERN MN AND MOVES THIS
CONVECTION SEWD INTO THE WRN TX PANHANDLE BY THE EARLY EVENING. DUE
TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR EVIDENT ON THE
AMARILLO WSR-88D VWP...THE STORMS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID EVENING WITH A CLUSTER EVENTUALLY
AFFECTING AREAS SOUTHWEST OF OKLAHOMA CITY TO NEAR LAWTON.

..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 07/14/2016

[Anonymous.]

HRRR develops storms in the next 2-3 hours and forms into MCS that comes across the border into W OK. Mainly targeting areas just north of I-40 and south of that.

This will have the potential to miss OKC just like this morning's complex did, except this time to the SW. OKC is getting very unlucky in the rain category with all of these storms as of late.

As always, any isolated cells or embedded supercells will have the possibility of tornadoes, especially after dark.

[Anonymous.]

Really nice CU development into TX PH, likely supercells in the next hour or so.

[SoonerDave]

What's the timing for all this? Late this evening, perhaps clearing by morning?

[Anonymous.]

Late evening. Storms are developing just now south of Woodward toward Enid. These will gradually build and slide south and east.

[Anonymous.]

Storms will move slow and train over same areas. Flash flooding is likely.

[Pete]

That lightning storm last night was incredible!

There were multiple flashes *per second* for what seemed like an hour, with thunder that sounded like bombs going off over my house.

Two of my dogs absolutely hate thunder (we never experienced it in California) and I was trying to hold them both to calm them down. But it went on and on.

I bet there were literally thousands of flashes at my house as that storm moved through. Never seen anything like it.

[Roger S]

The launching platform the rowers use at the boathouse was lodged underneath the I-35 bridge this morning.

[Celebrator]

I get the feeling that might be the last rain for a while, so I'm glad I got 3.25" at my place!

[Sirsteve]

I get the feeling that might be the last rain for a while, so I'm glad I got 3.25" at my place!

I agree, it looks like the dreaded heat dome is heading back but i also received 3.13" here in Midwest city.

[FighttheGoodFight]

That lightning storm last night was incredible!

There were multiple flashes *per second* for what seemed like an hour, with thunder that sounded like bombs going off over my house.

Two of my dogs absolutely hate thunder (we never experienced it in California) and I was trying to hold them both to calm them down. But it went on and on.

I bet there were literally thousands of flashes at my house as that storm moved through. Never seen anything like it.

Our dog as well. Put him under the covers and he went right to sleep. Wait a minute it might have just been a ploy to get in bed with us....

[Anonymous.]

Storm firing now in E CO and SW KS over the next 2-3 hours.

These will move south and east and form another large complex. Models are going back and forth on the track of the MCS, but favoring more southerly travel than southeasterly.

So best chance tonight for storms is western OK, but can't rule out development coming east enough to clip parts of central OK, including OKC.

Per usual, main threat will be heavy rain, but if these storms gain enough momentum from up there - could be a damaging straight-line wind threat accompanying the storms.

[John1744]

Yes, last nights storms were some of the most intense I've heard in OK in quite some time. Kept me awake from 2AM straight through till 3AM. The lightning was just unreal and we had at least a dozen power flashes.

[ljbab728]

I had some physical consequences that I didn't know about until I woke up this morning. I had no land line telephone or internet connection. I had to have ATT come over. They had to replace my modem, which was only 2 months old, and I'm going to have to get a new phone for my land line. Both were fried.

[Bunty]

Don't ever plant a silver maple tree. They may grow fast but then this happens. ^^^

Pin oak trees stand up to Oklahoma weather better, but since my pin oak tree has become one of the tallest trees in my neighborhood, I fear it could get struck by lightning.

[corwin1968]

That lightning storm last night was incredible!

There were multiple flashes *per second* for what seemed like an hour, with thunder that sounded like bombs going off over my house.

Two of my dogs absolutely hate thunder (we never experienced it in California) and I was trying to hold them both to calm them down. But it went on and on.

I bet there were literally thousands of flashes at my house as that storm moved through. Never seen anything like it.

I was having trouble sleeping that night and ended up on the back patio for an hour or so, watching the storm. I eventually got sleepy and went to bed and I could hear that the storm had intensified and now I wish I had gotten up and gone back to the patio! It was pretty intense when I was out there so I can imagine what it was like after I went to bed.

[catch22]

That lightning storm last night was incredible!

There were multiple flashes *per second* for what seemed like an hour, with thunder that sounded like bombs going off over my house.

Two of my dogs absolutely hate thunder (we never experienced it in California) and I was trying to hold them both to calm them down. But it went on and on.

I bet there were literally thousands of flashes at my house as that storm moved through. Never seen anything like it.

Side note: a trainer told me this about our dog who doesn't like certain situations. When he is scared or nervous, do not comfort or attempt to ease their pains. It only confirm to them that there indeed is something to be afraid of and that their fears are justified, instead ignore the whole situation and pretended that you can't hear a thing, they'll take your cue that there is nothing to worry about. Hard to do in the moment as pets are family and you don't want to see them unhappy or scared, but that's the advice I was given and it has worked for us.

[tfvc.org]

Side note: a trainer told me this about our dog who doesn't like certain situations. When he is scared or nervous, do not comfort or attempt to ease their pains. It only confirm to them that there indeed is something to be afraid of and that their fears are justified, instead ignore the whole situation and pretended that you can't hear a thing, they'll take your cue that there is nothing to worry about. Hard to do in the moment as pets are family and you don't want to see them unhappy or scared, but that's the advice I was given and it has worked for us.

Sounds like something Cesar Millan would say.

[catch22]

Sounds like something Cesar Millan would say.

Yes it does, I've watched his shows and also sought advice from a trainer and he recommended the same. Essentially even though they exhibit human like emotions, you can't treat them like a human because they take it the opposite of how we would. We would hold and comfort a loved one while scared, but a dog would take it as you being equally as afraid and would essentially tell them its okay to act crazy when afraid.

[Anonymous.]

Ridge of death is setup today. Looking long-term, even out to the beginning of August, there is no solid chances of rain showing up. This could change, as the previous week was also forecast to be ridge of death - but ended up shifting and putting us in an opportunity for rain.

But as it stands, prepare for dead grass and burning steering wheels.

[tfvc.org]

Ridge of death is setup today. Looking long-term, even out to the beginning of August, there is no solid chances of rain showing up. This could change, as the previous week was also forecast to be ridge of death - but ended up shifting and putting us in an opportunity for rain.

But as it stands, prepare for dead grass and burning steering wheels.

Hopefully it will kill off the ticks as well

[LakeEffect]

My Yahoo weather app on iPhone has only three days above 95 in the 10-day, with storm chances the last few days of the 10-day. What model do you think they're using? Contrasts with all other forecasts I've seen...

Of course, wishing it verifies, but not actually hopeful.

[Pete]

Side note: a trainer told me this about our dog who doesn't like certain situations. When he is scared or nervous, do not comfort or attempt to ease their pains. It only confirm to them that there indeed is something to be afraid of and that their fears are justified, instead ignore the whole situation and pretended that you can't hear a thing, they'll take your cue that there is nothing to worry about. Hard to do in the moment as pets are family and you don't want to see them unhappy or scared, but that's the advice I was given and it has worked for us.

There is something in the genetics of dogs that makes many (even most) afraid of loud noises from overhead (fireworks, thunder).

Every July 5th the shelters are full of dogs which freak out and run away. I'm very sure almost all those dogs were not being comforted and still were completely traumatized.

I understand what you are saying but I think this is a completely different situation, as there is something in the DNA of most dogs to be fearful of thunder and fireworks. I've always wondered what it was in their evolutionary past, but I suspect it was a defense mechanism which served them well at some point, and is more or less hard-wired into them.