General Weather Discussion - March 2015

[venture]

14Z HRRR initiation of storms along the dryline at 4PM.

[venture]

2-5KM Updraft Helicity, showing potential rotation in storms later...VERY large hail possible with strongly rotating storms.

5PM


6PM

[Anonymous.]

MD out for S KS.

Most of SW, C, and S OK are under sunshine, while N and NE parts of state are under a cloudy haze. This could have an affect on fuel for the storms.

[Easy180]

So are most models predicting that cars in garages by 5:00 in OKC should remain dent free?

[SoonerBeerMan]

Does the sun shining here in C OK and S/SW OK start to eat away at the available moisture in the air, or does the heating add more fuel to future storm development?

[Anonymous.]

Heating is better for storm development, but yes the higher heat generally eats away at moisture, but when you have this kind of GOM moisture spilling into the area in March, it is more than enough. This setup is more conducive for late April into May.

Areas seeing sunshine are in the 60F dewpoint @ 75F+ air and areas under cloud cover are at the same dewpoint, but @ 60-65F air.

[venture]

MDT Risk expanded slightly more West and south to include all counties of the Metro. Tornado risk increased to 5% for the entire area.

SPC discussion...

ACROSS CENTRAL/SWRN OK...LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE NCEP HRRR ARE
CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING SUPERCELLS NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND ALONG
THE DRYLINE BY MID TO LATE AFTN. THESE STORMS WOULD POSE A RISK FOR
VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE BEING
UNDERCUT BY THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO WILL
BE POSSIBLE...LARGE SFC TEMP-DEW POINT SPREADS AND RESULTANT HIGH
LCL HEIGHTS WILL TEND TO MITIGATE POTENTIAL FOR PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL
ROTATION. WITH TIME...STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP A MORE LINEAR STRUCTURE
ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS ERN OK.

[Soonerman12]

Here's the latest from NWS Tulsa for my neck of the woods in Neast OK.


http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/t...mage_full1.gif

[bchris02]

Should OKC be out of the woods by 7PM?

[venture]

Should OKC be out of the woods by 7PM?

Depends on the movement of the front.

[LocoAko]

The amount of media hype this is getting (esp the tor threat) is unreal. The hail threat is *actually* a big deal (IMO), but I digress...

[turnpup]

The amount of media hype this is getting (esp the tor threat) is unreal. The hail threat is *actually* a big deal (IMO), but I digress...

Glad I've stayed away from the TV today, then. Well, except I'd like to see what kind of sparkly tie Mike Morgan might be sporting.

We're really fortunate here on this board to have you guys (gals?) giving us such great information without the hysterics.

[venture]

Some CU starting to bubble up...

[jn1780]

The amount of media hype this is getting (esp the tor threat) is unreal. The hail threat is *actually* a big deal (IMO), but I digress...

One of us on here always says this every single weather event. The media will never change, we just have to tune them out.

[BG918]

We're really fortunate here on this board to have you guys (gals?) giving us such great information without the hysterics.

Yep these threads are awesome for Oklahoma weather info especially severe weather. Just follow these threads on OKCTalk and the NWS (srh.noaa.gov) and tune out the local TV weather hype machines.

[venture]

17Z HRRR at 4PM

[venture]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0140
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0145 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL INTO NERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 251845Z - 252115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY BETWEEN
21-23Z FROM CENTRAL INTO NERN OK. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS CONTINUED WARMING AND
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE REGION S OF THE PRIMARY FRONT WHICH
EXTENDS FROM W-CNTRL INTO NERN OK AS OF 18Z. TEMPERATURES ARE
WARMING TO ABOVE 80 F WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING NEAR 60 F. GIVEN VERY
COLD PROFILES ALOFT...THIS IS CREATING SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY WITH
LARGE LIFTED INDICES.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING RAPIDLY
EWD ACROSS SWRN OK. CU FIELDS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE...ALTHOUGH
A CAPPING INVERSION STILL EXISTS. HOWEVER...INCREASING FORCING FOR
ASCENT AS WELL AS HEATING MAY BREAK THE CAP ALONG THE DRYLINE...WITH
MIDLEVEL CONVECTION POSSIBLY HELPING TO INITIATE NEW DEVELOPMENT
DOWNSTREAM. ONE POSSIBLE LIMITING FACTOR IS THAT THIS WAVE MOVES
THROUGH TOO EARLY RELATIVE TO CAP EROSION...WITH RELATIVE SUBSIDENCE
POSSIBLE BEHIND. NONETHELESS...SEVERE HAIL AND WIND ARE POSSIBLE.

TO THE N...A MORE FOCUSED ZONE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL EXISTS ALONG THE
FRONT. INCREASING CONVERGENCE NEAR THIS BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN
SEVERE STORMS TRAINING NEWD ACROSS OK AND EVENTUALLY INTO SWRN
MO/NWRN AR. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS ALONG THE BOUNDARY SUGGEST BOTH
SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH ANY TORNADO THREAT
DEPENDENT ON STORM MODE. WIND-DRIVEN HAIL APPEARS LIKELY AS WELL.
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT STORMS MAY QUICKLY BECOME
OUTFLOW-DOMINANT...BUT AN ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO COULD STILL OCCUR
ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

..JEWELL/BUNTING.. 03/25/2015

[SoonerBeerMan]

What are the chances the cap holds and prevents storm initiation?

[SoonerDave]

Thick mid-level clouds forning here in c. oK. Any hope this will cut off pm heating?

[TheTravellers]

One of us on here always says this every single weather event. The media will never change, we just have to tune them out.

Yep, only reason I watch the TV weather guys is during an actual storm to see the radar and watch how it's moving, and, of course, the sparkly ties....

[venture]

What are the chances the cap holds and prevents storm initiation?

Zero.

[Soonerman12]

Soonerbeerman... Not thinking too likely. Since there is soo much heating and dew points are rising all that will help do is break it. The SPC has a moderate risk for a reason, the expect it to happen.

[venture]

Soonerbeerman... Not thinking too likely. Since there is soo much heating and dew points are rising all that will help do is break it. The SPC has a moderate risk for a reason, the expect it to happen.

Dewpoints are actually steady to slight decreasing.

[SoonerBeerMan]

Thanks all!

[venture]

Watch is out.