General Weather Discussion - March 2015

[Anonymous.]

Just watched ch 25 weather and they are calling for a sheet of ice followed by up to 6 inches of snow. Does that sound about right?

If it was a recording from this morning, then I would say it's plausible.

But after the last couple runs, I would say less than a 5% chance of that happening.


Unless the models are out to lunch right now, most of OK (including OKC and Tulsa) could get a quick round of sleet (maybe half inch) and a dusting of snow. The models are just taking the low south instead of east across the state.

[jn1780]

Uh oh, 00Z GFS has low tracking even more south.

Classic OK winter storm last minute bail? Or models being goofy?

Must be because schools are closing ahead of storm.

God forbid they wait until 5 am to decide on closing school.

[sayyes]

God forbid they wait until 5 am to decide on closing school.

5am would be good, but I'd rather them do what they did tonight then let everyone come to school and then scramble to get everyone home.

[OKCisOK4me]

Than*. Sorry bub, but it makes a world if difference. See?

[s00nr1]

The jump the gun school closing jinx rarely fails. 00z runs after all the closings made me lol.

[sayyes]

Than*. Sorry bub, but it makes a world if difference. See?

Touche'. Just keeping you guys sharp for tornado season.

[Anonymous.]

HRRR shows that potentially the sleet/freezing rain precip train will light up just ESE of OKC, possibly leaving morning commute unharmed. (Dryslot SW and C OK)

Then some rather pathetic wrap-around snow coming from the W/NW during the day.


Have to keep an eye on NW TX radar, that is where the precip train will form and ride up over OK. As the front really gets shoving south, should see all precip types light up along from the NE back to the SW and fill in the gaps. potentially some thunderstorms mixed in, as well.

[Bunty]

Winter Weather Advisory Winter Weather Advisory
Updated: Tue Mar-03-15 10:15pm CST
Effective: Tue Mar-03-15 10:15pm CST
Expires: Thu Mar-05-15 12:00am CST

Severity: Minor
Urgency: Expected
Certainty: Likely

Status: Actual
Type: Alert
Category: Met
Areas affected: Atoka; Bryan; Caddo; Canadian; Carter; Cleveland; Coal; Comanche; Cotton; Garvin; Grady; Greer; Harmon; Hughes; Jackson; Jefferson; Johnston; Kiowa; Lincoln; Logan; Love; Marshall; McClain; Murray; Oklahoma; Payne; Pontotoc; Pottawatomie; Seminole; Stephens; Tillman; Wa****a

Instructions: Be careful if you have to travel. Even small amounts of ice and snow can make roads and sidewalks slick and dangerous.

Message summary: ...winter weather advisory remains in effect from 6 am wednesday to midnight cst wednesday night...
A winter weather advisory remains in effect from 6 am wednesday to midnight cst wednesday night.
* timing: accumulating sleet and freezing rain will be possible from daybreak wednesday to noon. Freezing rain will transition to sleet and snow in the afternoon and into the evening. The heaviest precipitation is expected to occur between 3 pm and 9 pm.
* snow and sleet accumulations: sleet accumulations are expected to be highest south and east of the interstate-44 corridor where some areas could see a half inch of sleet. Snow accumulations of one to three inches are likely with isolated heavier amounts.
* main impact: slick and hazardous roadways are expected to develop from accumulating sleet and snow.
* other impact: with stronger winds expected south of interstate-40...decreased visibilities in blowing snow will compound the travel dangers late wednesday afternoon through wednesday evening.

[Jim Kyle]

During the 10 p.m. news on Channel 9, Kelly Ogle announced that OKC public schools had just decided to close Wed. but I've seen no such announcement anywhere else...

[LocoAko]

During the 10 p.m. news on Channel 9, Kelly Ogle announced that OKC public schools had just decided to close Wed. but I've seen no such announcement anywhere else...

https://twitter.com/OKCPS/status/572970758021857280

[venture]

06Z Updates...

Through Noon - Rain will continue to move NE over Oklahoma. At 2AM light rain currently is over SW OK and also SC OK, increasing in coverage and moving NE. Temps over NW OK area already at or below freezing. Temps in Central OK are falling into the mid 30s. NAM has sped up significantly on getting the Metro below freezing by the morning rush hour, where previous runs had it later in the morning. HRRR is a bit slower bringing us below freezing around 10AM. Precip looks to be most likely along and southeast of I-44, ending around 10AM locally but remain ongoing over NW OK.

Noon through Evening - Redevelopment of precip will start around 11AM to Noon. NAM is forecasting two bands of precip to setup. One is going to be on going over NW OK bringing light snow. Another area will develop generally along I-44 (give or take 40 miles on either side) that could provide a focused area of heavy snow and/or sleet. HRRR agrees with this as well. All precip should move out pretty quickly after 7 or 8 PM, but there could be some lingering freezing drizzle or light snow through Midnight.

The main struggle with the forecast is going to be where the heavy precip band sets up. Forcing isn't the best, so there isn't one specific area where we can say - HERE - for certain. If we bet on a NAM + HRRR blend then it could focus on an area generally along I-44 to about 50 miles southeast of it. Someone in that band could easily get 4+ inches of snow if sleet is limited. That also means someone could very well get next to nothing.

Not much else to add tonight. Models are being a bit unstable, but hopefully we are finally locked in now on the solution.

[Anonymous.]

Yea cold air coming in quickly now. The precip in NW TX and SC OK is slowly drifting NNE. Could move development edge into OKC metro at rush hour.


Meanwhile. Dallas area upgraded to WSWs due to model shifting. Will be interesting to see how the low lifts out today into tonight.

[Anonymous.]

New NAM coming in with some pretty decent snowfall totals for this afternoon and evening.

The low is tracking more northerly than what was suggested last night. This would drag the main precip along I-44, up to about I-40 then east.

Looks like 2-4" is a good bet anywhere along and south of I-40, with locally higher along the included I-44 corridor.




Sidenote: Don't let this weekend fool you, another powerful winter storm showing up around March 15th timeframe.

[ouamber]

New NAM coming in with some pretty decent snowfall totals for this afternoon and evening.

The low is tracking more northerly than what was suggested last night. This would drag the main precip along I-44, up to about I-40 then east.

Looks like 2-4" is a good bet anywhere along and south of I-40, with locally higher along the included I-44 corridor.




Sidenote: Don't let this weekend fool you, another powerful winter storm showing up around March 15th timeframe.

What do you see for Tulsa???

[Easy180]

New NAM coming in with some pretty decent snowfall totals for this afternoon and evening.

The low is tracking more northerly than what was suggested last night. This would drag the main precip along I-44, up to about I-40 then east.

Looks like 2-4" is a good bet anywhere along and south of I-40, with locally higher along the included I-44 corridor.




Sidenote: Don't let this weekend fool you, another powerful winter storm showing up around March 15th timeframe.

Since we missed the first wave in OKC and the cold front is here are we looking at just snow in OKC?

[Anonymous.]

A lot of new echos coming up from C OK, back to the W and SW. So if this continues to fill in, OKC could get a few pockets of sleet before mostly snow this afternoon.

Also if this dryslot begins to fill in, overall storm totals could go up for the area mentioned above.



For Tulsa, they missed the main precip train this morning like OKC, I think they got a quick round of sleet. If I had to say at this moment, it looks like Tulsa could get bypassed by the main snow, but radar is trending up over central parts of the state right now, and this would put Tulsa back into some snow action this afternoon.

[Bobby821]

Since we missed the first wave in OKC and the cold front is here are we looking at just snow in OKC?

Sleet then to snow and some decent amounts of snow the way it is looking.

[s00nr1]

The 13Z HRRR is good for a laugh -- bringing out the sun by 4pm and warming us up above freezing.

[OKCisOK4me]

Well, News9 this morning said around 1" of snow for OKC. This kind of forecasting must suck. Kids could be in school right now to be honest. Oh well.

[LocoAko]

The 13Z HRRR is good for a laugh -- bringing out the sun by 4pm and warming us up above freezing.

Meanwhile, the latest SREF runs for the day of the event (!) ... Yikes.



Lots of bouncing around for the metro with the models even this morning. We'll see what the GFS has to say (as if it matters) but as far as snow totals in the metro go last night's model runs may have been a hiccup of sorts.

[Bobby821]

When looking at the radar loops I am showing a opening up or open donut hole seems to be forming in the precipitation in Texas to the SW of Oklahoma and I am also seeing a line form up through NW Oklahoma connecting to the precip in NE Oklahoma. is this a cause for concern for us here in central Oklahoma??

[Bobby821]

Meanwhile, the latest SREF runs for the day of the event (!) ... Yikes.



Lots of bouncing around for the metro with the models even this morning. We'll see what the GFS has to say (as if it matters) but as far as snow totals in the metro go last night's model runs may have been a hiccup of sorts.

What is this referring to the SREF runs and why the Yikes?

[Anonymous.]

Super technical drawing time!

I have highlighted in yellow the area I expect the most snowfall to occur. This area in yellow is currently filling in with precipitation as we head through the morning hours. I think it will only increase in intensity and coverage heading into this afternoon.

[bradh]

HRRR and SREF...two models I don't hear much about. Would one of you with more experience mind breaking down the acronyms for these and their backgrounds?

[Bobby821]

Starting to get some sparse raindrops here in Moore now. Really cold out there with the wind too