General Weather Discussion - March 2015

[SoonerDave]

I don't see much choice but to call tomorrow off. Thursday AM may not be much better if residential streets are as bad as one might guess.

[Celebrator]

This is a huge issue at my school, and probably many others. As soon as a couple of flakes have accumulated on the roads, parents start checking their student out. At that point it is almost impossible to get anything done, because of the non-stop break in for announcements on the intercom system for so and so to report to the office to check out.

They should do it like we do it at our school. They send runners to the specific classrooms to notify the kids who are getting checked out, therefore eliminating the constant P.A. interruptions for the entire school. It works great.

Now back to the weather...(sorry, my school administrator training in me couldn't resist).

[corwin1968]

I don't see much choice but to call tomorrow off. Thursday AM may not be much better if residential streets are as bad as one might guess.

I agree but that just means it's that much more likely that school will be in session. I don't understand the reasoning of these district decision makers.

[SoonerDave]

I agree but that just means it's that much more likely that school will be in session. I don't understand the reasoning of these district decision makers.

All has to do with money and Average Daily Attendance stuff. Been that way for eons. Will acknowledge, however, they seem more liberal toward closing now than back when I was in school.

[Anonymous.]

New NAM is locking in on a heavy snow band somewhere from WC OK east towards Tulsa. Again, focus on the probability of a heavy band(s) occurring rather than the location.

Spitting out 4-6 inches of snow on top of whatever glaze of ice and then sleet.


Cold front right now is around Woodward, strong north winds filtering in the arctic air. Front will really get chugging late tonight.

[Antler dad]

Is there any chance of frozen precip/travel issues in OKC before 10 p.m.?

[FighttheGoodFight]

New NAM is locking in on a heavy snow band somewhere from WC OK east towards Tulsa. Again, focus on the probability of a heavy band(s) occurring rather than the location.

Spitting out 4-6 inches of snow on top of whatever glaze of ice and then sleet.


Cold front right now is around Woodward, strong north winds filtering in the arctic air. Front will really get chugging late tonight.

Any chance it just doesn't get South of I-40?

[s00nr1]

Is there any chance of frozen precip/travel issues in OKC before 10 p.m.?

Negative.

[Antler dad]

Negative.

Thank you!

[Anonymous.]

New GFS takes low further south into NW TX. So snow totals are down for this run.

[Anonymous.]

Cold front is here in C OK. Time to watch this all unfold.

[Bobby821]

So is the cold front ahead of schedule? Does this mean higher snow/freezing rain/sleet totals for the metro and points south?

[OKCRT]

Can some,anyone give us the scoop on this storm? I have heard anywhere from 12 inches of snow to nothing over the last 24 hours,seriously.

[LocoAko]

Can some,anyone give us the scoop on this storm? I have heard anywhere from 12 inches of snow to nothing over the last 24 hours,seriously.

Who told you 12 inches? Source?

The discussion here and the NWS have been pretty clear. Looks like rain changing over to 1/4-1/2" of sleet throughout the day tomorrow and changing to snow tomorrow afternoon that should last through the evening, accumulating 1-3" with locally higher amounts possible.

[OKCRT]

Well someone on the radio (one of the local TV guys that does radio forecasts) said if all precip coming in was in the form of snow it would = 12+/- inches. So he didn't exactly predict 12 inches of snow because he did say it would prob go from rain to sleet to ice to snow.

[Anonymous.]

00Z NAM is falling inline with 18Z GFS. Taking the low on a more southerly track into NW TX. NAM every run before this was taking the low from N TX PH across OK then shooting it off to the NE.

This latest data is showing low coming from N TX PH and NW OK south into NW TX, then shredding it off to the E across N TX and into SE OK and AR (where it really gets cranking). This would really put the Dallas area in a pretty bad spot tomorrow night.


Going to have to see how GFS does tonight, but the takeaway is perhaps less precip. north, more south.

EDIT: Decided to put my own thoughts about the data.

I want to say not to read into single runs too much, If the low sinks south across NW TX and then tracks to the NE across OK, we could have some heavy snow banding setup across the center of the state. Taking a combination of the models last few runs, would produce this exact scenario, because between the northern solutions and southerly, the I-44 corridor lies in between. Again this is just my personal take on the data, but I have a lot of free time at the moment so I am analyzing every single run.

When in doubt, just watch the radar and you will see what is going to happen.

[turnpup]

Hell, I really wanted to be able to know whether or not we had to get up tomorrow morning at 6:00 a.m. to get ready for school. Drat this uncertain winter weather!

In all seriousness, thanks to those of you who spend a great deal of your time posting the real stuff for us. As a result, I've completely quit watching the local weather. I just come here and know that it's the best of the best! The only time I watch the locals is to see them freaking out during tornado season (e.g., the sequined ties).

[turnpup]

Double-post.

[LocoAko]

00Z NAM is falling inline with 18Z GFS. Taking the low on a more southerly track into NW TX. NAM every run before this was taking the low from N TX PH across OK then shooting it off to the NE.

This latest data is showing low coming from N TX PH and NW OK south into NW TX, then shredding it off to the E across N TX and into SE OK and AR (where it really gets cranking). This would really put the Dallas area in a pretty bad spot tomorrow night.


Going to have to see how GFS does tonight, but the takeaway is perhaps less precip. north, more south.

EDIT: Decided to put my own thoughts about the data.

I want to say not to read into single runs too much, If the low sinks south across NW TX and then tracks to the NE across OK, we could have some heavy snow banding setup across the center of the state. Taking a combination of the models last few runs, would produce this exact scenario, because between the northern solutions and southerly, the I-44 corridor lies in between. Again this is just my personal take on the data, but I have a lot of free time at the moment so I am analyzing every single run.

When in doubt, just watch the radar and you will see what is going to happen.

Definitely an interesting and somewhat troubling shift. Interesting, I've only looked at SREF plumes (not any spatial maps) but they've consistently been much lower on snow totals, only giving Norman under an inch but still providing a decent amount of sleet.

[Anonymous.]

Basically same idea I posted above:

685
FXUS64 KOUN 040252
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
850 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR THIS EVENING... MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS WITH THE
FORECAST. REMOVED THE THUNDER FROM THE SOUTH AND ADDED SOME PATCHY
FOG. HAVE ALSO TRENDED TEMPS WARMER ACROSS RED RIVER VALLEY LATER
TONIGHT.

QUICKLY LOOKING AT THIS EVENINGS 00Z NAM AND THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES FROM EARLIER RUN. A BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN DEVELOPS AND
MOVES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SSOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER... MODEL SHOWS MUCH OF THIS
AREA REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING WHILE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP IS OCCURING.
HOWEVER IF TEMPS ARE A FEW DEGREES COOLER COULD LEAD TO MORE ICING
IN THOSE AREAS BEFORE TRANSITION TO SLEET. FARTHER NORTH... MODELS
HAVE ALSO SHOWN A TREND IN KEEPING AMOUNTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TO THE NORTH OF THE BAND OF RAIN... LIGHTER MEANING THAT SLEET
AMOUNTS MAY BE LOWER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. NAM ALSO HAS TRENDED
LOWER WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LATER IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
EVENING. WILL THEREFORE NOT UPGRADE ANY OF THE ADVISORY TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING AT THIS POINT. WILL SEE IF THE 00Z GFS CONT WITH THESE
TRENDS.

30

[OKCisOK4me]

Well, fortunately for Norman, they've canceled school for tomorrow. Yay for them (and all the other closings I'm seeing scrolled across the screen).

[LocoAko]

OU, OSU, and most schools around the metro are now closed for tomorrow.

[Anonymous.]

Uh oh, 00Z GFS has low tracking even more south.

Classic OK winter storm last minute bail? Or models being goofy?

Must be because schools are closing ahead of storm.

[OKCRT]

Just watched ch 25 weather and they are calling for a sheet of ice followed by up to 6 inches of snow. Does that sound about right?

[BB37]

Well, fortunately for Norman, they've canceled school for tomorrow. Yay for them (and all the other closings I'm seeing scrolled across the screen).

Mid-Del and Edmond schools have cancelled as well.