General Weather Discussion - March 2015

[venture]

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[LocoAko]

Not that it has a ton of support right now, but today's 18Z NAM would be atrocious on Wednesday. 0.5-2" of sleet along I-44 with snow north of that and a dusting on top.

[Dustin]

It's already March? Good god. It was Christmas yesterday.

[FighttheGoodFight]

Let the warm up begin. Please Oklahoma I want some Spring in my life...

[Anonymous.]

12Z GFS just went serious business for Tuesday into Wednesday.

[yukong]

12Z GFS just went serious business for Tuesday into Wednesday.

Do Tell.

[Bobby821]

12Z GFS just went serious business for Tuesday into Wednesday.

Hopefully it knows what it is spitting out since we are this close to the Tuesday evening Wednesday time frame. Yes spill the detail please Anon...

[LocoAko]

Take these automated precipitation type algorithms with a grain of salt, but as for what the 12Z runs are showing for OKC --

12Z NAM:




12Z GFS:




Keep in mind that the quantitative amounts listed is liquid equivalent. Freezing rain will be the same amount for assumulation, but sleet may be a ~3:1 ratio and snow a much higher ratio on the order of 10:1 or higher. So, in a nutshell, the NAM shows thunderstorms transitioning to light sleet and eventually snow by Wednesday afternoon (less than an inch) while the GFS shows over a quarter inch of freezing rain followed by very light sleet/snow. The upcoming situation involves a front crashing southward as there is precipitation around the area so forecasts are bound to be tricky (and from what I've seen they've been swinging around a lot).

[OKCisOK4me]

Or as the weather app on my phone put it: a 50% chance of snow on Wednesday.

[Anonymous.]

Waiting for 18Z (and probably 00Z) before details. So late tonight we should have a decent idea.

[venture]

Or as the weather app on my phone put it: a 50% chance of snow on Wednesday.

Hopefully these discussions are more informative than a simple phone app with no "behind the scenes" look.

[Anonymous.]

Yikes, 18Z NAM and GFS both bread and milk.

I think if the next two GFS runs are similar, we will see winter storm warnings by morning.

[OKCRT]

Lets hope we get a foot of snow and NO ICE!

[Easy180]

I prefer Accuweather's soothing forecast for OKC lol

"Coating to an inch of snow for late tomorrow night into Wednesday afternoon"

[LocoAko]

[venture]

NAM 4-km resolution snowfall output...

[venture]

We'll probably see Winter Storm Watches go up overnight from Central OK back to the east and north. Waiting on GFS...

[Anonymous.]

GFS loading now. The anticipation!

[SoonerDave]

[Anonymous.]

Slower on arctic air arrival, so potentially less freezing rain and sleet accumulations. Tomorrow will be fun.

[OKCisOK4me]

Weather in 6 minutes. Stay tuned...

[venture]

Weather in 6 minutes. Stay tuned...

Im pretty sure we are 24 hours here.

[venture]

Slower on arctic air arrival, so potentially less freezing rain and sleet accumulations. Tomorrow will be fun.

Yeah. Looking at the last 3 runs with the GFS, it seem sto be slowing down on each run. NAM is even a bit slower on getting the surface down to freezing. General rule though is that cold air gets here faster than models typically say, so we'll just need to watch it early Wednesday.

[Bobby821]

Why have we not seen any winter storm watches/warnings issued for this storm system yet?

[Soonerman12]

So I'm thinking this winter storm this evening through tomorrow might be a little heavier than what some are thinking (at least in my side of the state)... I know the models are having a difficult time but I see this being like a lot of the winter storms we get in OK, models can't make up there minds which makes people get mad and blame the weather men when they have to all of a sudden issue a winter storm warning AFTER it starts snowing. People need to realize the models jump around a lot and it can be difficult to be predict. The last few storms had winter storm warnings issues in Tulsa after it had been snowing for awhile. Anyways, I do honestly believe there will be AT LEAST a winter weather advisory/Travel advisory issued for central/east OK sometime this afternoon. (maybe even a winter storm warn for east) Stay safe everyone, today should be fun trying to figure out what'll happen next.