General Weather Discussion - January/February 2015

[Anonymous.]

But just as wet?

No, about an inch less than last run. This run may be more of an anomoly than what actually happens, but it is worth noting that the trend for GFS is definitely away from snowstorm and more into cold rain.

We will be in NAM window soon, so we will have more data to go off of.

[s00nr1]

Euro is trending warmer as well but with healthy rainfall amounts. Kansas could see a significant snowfall however.

[venture]

Precip type is always going to be one of the tough things for models to get right, but I'm glad they are at least staying consistent in bringing this storm system through. We need all the moisture we can get...in any form.

[catch22]

Random off topic question that I'm sure one of you will know.

Are the model computers self learning? Does it analyze it's past predictions with current outcomes? Does it learn from mistakes? Or is it static until someone comes in and upgrades some of the prediction software?

[Urban Pioneer]

LOL

NYC Mayor: ?Reconcile Yourselves With Your God, For All Will Perish In The Tempest? | The Onion - America's Finest News Source

The mayor apparently liked it so much he did a reading of it- Listen to Bill de Blasio perform a dramatic reading of an Onion article about him - Vox

[LocoAko]

Random off topic question that I'm sure one of you will know.

Are the model computers self learning? Does it analyze it's past predictions with current outcomes? Does it learn from mistakes? Or is it static until someone comes in and upgrades some of the prediction software?

No, not in the sense you're describing. Neural networks and the like are seeing some use in research applications, but the models are not self learning on their own and only change during upgrades. The only way past predictions are really incorporated is through the data assimilation scheme, where a short term forecast from the model is used as the "background" before new observations are included, so in that sense past forecasts (and their assimilated obs) are integrated forward in time and past data is preserved, but that's something different.

[venture]

00Z GFS is going colder now by crashing the cold air in faster on Sunday morning. We'll see if this becomes a trend.

[Anonymous.]

Well it's colder again this morning's run. Perhaps we will have a better read once this cold front comes through this evening.

Also looking down the pipe, we could have multiple storms lining up for our February. We need all the moisture we can get right now.

[yukong]

We need snow. We need cold. I for one hate these warm days in January. This is January for pete's sake. It's supposed to be cold. If I wanted 70s and 80s in January, I would move to Arizona, Florida, California or Hawaii. Come on major cold. Come on Major Snow.

[Celebrator]

We need snow. We need cold. I for one hate these warm days in January. This is January for pete's sake. It's supposed to be cold. If I wanted 70s and 80s in January, I would move to Arizona, Florida, California or Hawaii. Come on major cold. Come on Major Snow.

While I enjoy the warm temps for myself, I worry about most about trees, plants, etc. which are totally getting their seasonal clocks all messed up. I am sure everyone has seen how the bulbs are emerging from the ground already thinking it is late March/early April. I worry I will start to see blooms soon on my plants and trees! Then we will have no show in the spring to enjoy. Hopefully, for their sake, this is the last 70 degree plus day we see until the time is right.

[Bobby821]

Is there a big storm system headed for us here in Oklahoma February 8th?

[venture]

Is there a big storm system headed for us here in Oklahoma February 8th?

Nothing on the 12Z GFS run. Dry as a bone. If there was any significant coming we would already be talking about it. :-P

[Bobby821]

Looks like NWS may be latching on to a more colder scenario for this weekend they have started adding the rain/snow mix into there wording so hopefully we get cold quickly and stay cold and it turns into all snow,

[BrettM2]

As much as I want moisture, this is the weekend I'm moving my household goods back to OKC. Hopefully any snow waits until Sunday.

[OKCisOK4me]

Don't ruin it for Bobby. He wants to play in the snow...skate on the ice.

[venture]

Don't ruin it for Bobby. He wants to play in the snow...skate on the ice.

Several of us would like snow, FYI. It definitely makes the lawn look good come spring.

[ljbab728]

Several of us would like snow, FYI. It definitely makes the lawn look good come spring.

True, but it doesn't always make the cars look so good after all of the accidents it causes.

[venture]

True, but it doesn't always make the cars look so good after all of the accidents it causes.

Not my problem being are too stupid to know how to drive in it. LOL

[ljbab728]

Not my problem being are too stupid to know how to drive in it. LOL

True, but it would be your problem if one of them plow right into your car.

[venture]

True, but it would be your problem if one of them plow right into your car.

That's where defensive driving comes in and being aware of people around you. Granted most drivers don't have the capability to be that aware of their surroundings and before they know it they are plowing into someone who spun out.

[Anonymous.]

Well it looks like a cold rain is the game this weekend. Nice to get moisture, but sad we are missing yet another opportunity for snow. Looks like the snow from this system won't get cranking until the precip. spreads over MO and into IL.

The entire plains has really missed out on snowstorms this season. TX panhandle has really been the only memorable action.

[OKCisOK4me]

Regardless, I'd rather have a steady rain that soaks into the ground.

[TheTravellers]

As much as I want moisture, this is the weekend I'm moving my household goods back to OKC. Hopefully any snow waits until Sunday.

Or Tuesday... Going to the circus Sunday and Jack White Monday, don't need any snowy driving hassles until Tuesday when I can call in and work from home...

[Celebrator]

Regardless, I'd rather have a steady rain that soaks into the ground.

Isn't that what we're getting?

[OKCisOK4me]

Isn't that what we're getting?

As far as I know. I'm just saying as opposed to those that want snow...