General Weather Discussion - January/February 2015

[venture]

Bummer was holding out for some snow..

As of right now, no snow showing up for a couple weeks.

Operational GFS snow totals...


Parallel GFS Snowfall totals...

[Anonymous.]

Dam, if the atmosphere was 5 degrees colder all the way up, we would be in for one hell of a snow storm. Precip shield is taking perfect track over OK. At least we will be getting some moisture.

[venture]

00Z Updates...

P-GFS has next system moving in afternoon of January 9th. Snow/Sleet mix main precip type. Transition to all snow overnight and remain all snow through 12AM early Jan 11th.



Operational GFS...
Winter Mix moves in by 6AM January 9th. Transitions to snow and ends by late Friday.

[NikonNurse]

Apparently I'm hearing from security around work that the roads are getting icy right now?! Luckily its Sunday...

[jn1780]

Most of exciting thing to happen in 2014 was a couple of snowstorms earlier in the year.

[Soonerman12]

Wow the 12z run has really kicked out the winter weather for the latter part of this week for pretty much the entire state.

[Bobby821]

Wow the 12z run has really kicked out the winter weather for the latter part of this week for pretty much the entire state.

By kicked out do you mean it has intensified the winter weather for later this week or made it non existant?

[OKCisOK4me]

By kicked out do you mean it has intensified the winter weather for later this week or made it non existant?

I think he means you're still gonna have to go to 7 Eleven to get your ice.

[venture]

00Z GFS runs are a not really on the same page right now...

Snowfall through Sunday evening.

Operational GFS	Parallel GFS

[Soonerman12]

Bobby821.. By kicked out I mean it has gone bye bye for the most part.

[Soonerman12]

Bobby... Here's what the forecast models are saying as of 06Z Today. Snow tries to build in in South/Southeast OK by around 18z Friday. Snow/Mix tries forming in western TX and could move in to Western OK. Snow could then stick around all the way through 18Z Sunday. This will change 1,000,000,000,000 times by then though.

[Bobby821]

Bobby... Here's what the forecast models are saying as of 06Z Today. Snow tries to build in in South/Southeast OK by around 18z Friday. Snow/Mix tries forming in western TX and could move in to Western OK. Snow could then stick around all the way through 18Z Sunday. This will change 1,000,000,000,000 times by then though.

What does the times 18Z refer to in real time? I am not a weather illiterate person by any means but still trying to learn how to read the models and the times are confusing to me.

[Soonerman12]

Bobby... Here you go hope this helps. Sorry, I've been a huge weather enthusiast for a long time I sometimes forget not everyone knows everything about the weather. Ever since I was young I have stormed chased and have watched the weather models.


Per Meteorologist Jeff Haby,

Z time is used in order for all meteorological measurements to be made at the same time. This is the basis for synoptic meteorology, to take all measurements at the same time to produce a snapshot of the state of the atmosphere. Z time is in reference to 0 degrees longitude at Greenwich, England. The 12Z time will be in the early morning hours in the United States. Relative to Central Time, 12Z is at 6 a.m. in January (Central Standard Time) and 7 a.m. in July (Central Daylight Time). The way to remember the difference between CST and CDT is to remember that there is more Daylight in the summer and therefore the warm half of the year is Daylight time and the cool half of the year standard time. When it is noon in Europe, it is the early morning hours in the United States. 0Z occurs in the late afternoon hours in the United States. Relative to Central Time, 0Z is at 6 p.m. (Central Standard Time) and 7 p.m. (Central Daylight Time).

Many beginning analysts are tricked into thinking 0Z Tuesday is on Tuesday local time. This is not the case in the United States. When it turns to Tuesday in Greenwich, England, it is still Monday afternoon in the United States. Remember that Europe will always have their New Year's celebrations before the United States. 0Z TUE on the chart occurs at 6 p.m. Monday (Central Standard Time). The most common Z times you will come across are 0Z (late afternoon in U.S.), 18Z (near noon in U.S.), 12Z (morning in U.S.) and 6Z (near midnight in U.S.). It is a wise habit to look at the time stamp first on an image before interpretation. This prevents the unwanted task of interpreting old data. Most of the major synoptic scale models will have time stamps of 12Z or 0Z since most synoptic models are run twice per day. Surface analysis charts are updated hourly or every 3 hours. It is wise to be able to convert your local time into Z-time and vice versa for your time zone.

[Bobby821]

Bobby... Here you go hope this helps. Sorry, I've been a huge weather enthusiast for a long time I sometimes forget not everyone knows everything about the weather. Ever since I was young I have stormed chased and have watched the weather mod

Per Meteorologist Jeff Haby,

Z time is used in order for all meteorological measurements to be made at the same time. This is the basis for synoptic meteorology, to take all measurements at the same time to produce a snapshot of the state of the atmosphere. Z time is in reference to 0 degrees longitude at Greenwich, England. The 12Z time will be in the early morning hours in the United States. Relative to Central Time, 12Z is at 6 a.m. in January (Central Standard Time) and 7 a.m. in July (Central Daylight Time). The way to remember the difference between CST and CDT is to remember that there is more Daylight in the summer and therefore the warm half of the year is Daylight time and the cool half of the year standard time. When it is noon in Europe, it is the early morning hours in the United States. 0Z occurs in the late afternoon hours in the United States. Relative to Central Time, 0Z is at 6 p.m. (Central Standard Time) and 7 p.m. (Central Daylight Time).

Many beginning analysts are tricked into thinking 0Z Tuesday is on Tuesday local time. This is not the case in the United States. When it turns to Tuesday in Greenwich, England, it is still Monday afternoon in the United States. Remember that Europe will always have their New Year's celebrations before the United States. 0Z TUE on the chart occurs at 6 p.m. Monday (Central Standard Time). The most common Z times you will come across are 0Z (late afternoon in U.S.), 18Z (near noon in U.S.), 12Z (morning in U.S.) and 6Z (near midnight in U.S.). It is a wise habit to look at the time stamp first on an image before interpretation. This prevents the unwanted task of interpreting old data. Most of the major synoptic scale models will have time stamps of 12Z or 0Z since most synoptic models are run twice per day. Surface analysis charts are updated hourly or every 3 hours. It is wise to be able to convert your local time into Z-time and vice versa for your time zone.

Thanks for the info

[Soonerman12]

So it's looking like any winter weather this weekend has pretty much gone away for most of the state. (Maybe a little in my side of the state (Tulsa)). David/Anon, what are you guys thinking?

[Anonymous.]

Models generally suck with storms that come out of the southerly flow and get pulled up into the main jetstream. As of right now, the one later this week looks to be a rain event for E TX and maybe extreme E/SE OK.

Next larger storm for main body of OK looks to be in the Jan 19-22 timeframe.

[LakeEffect]

Models generally suck with storms that come out of the southerly flow and get pulled up into the meain jetstream. As of right now, the one later this week looks to be a rain event for E TX and maybe extreme E/SE OK.

Next larger storm for main body of OK looks to be in the Jan 19-22 timeframe.

My toddler REALLY wants to build a snow man... so do I.

[Roger S]

My toddler REALLY wants to build a snow man... so do I.

[Anonymous.]

Newest GFS hinting at a follow-up storm to the one mentioned above that will mainly impact TX. So watch for maybe somesthing wintry trying to get organized Jan 12-14ish.

[OKCisOK4me]

Newest GFS hinting at a follow-up storm to the one mentioned above that will mainly impact TX. So watch for maybe somesthing wintry trying to get organized Jan 12-14ish.

That's what Mike Morgan was hinting at during yesterday's 6pm newscast with his 40% chance of snow next Monday.

[venture]

Operational GFS has a pretty quick moving system on Tuesday into early Wednesday next week. Precip mostly snow, maybe mixing on Wednesday. Parallel GFS has it a little slower - more so Wednesday - and nearly all rain.

[Bunty]

Barometric pressure got remarkably high on Wednesday. It peaked out at 31.03 at my place.

[venture]

Still an outside hope for some snow on Tuesday. This is on the Parallel GFS run, which FYI - will become the operational run on Jan 14th.

[OKCisOK4me]

MM previewed 3" for OKC, Tuesday night into Wednesday.

[venture]

Tonight's GFS runs keep snow totals well under an inch.