General Weather Discussion - January/February 2015

[Bobby821]

I want ICE

[OKCisOK4me]

^^you are weird.

[John1744]

Latest NWS thoughts.

[ljbab728]

I want ICE

Your nearest 7-11 will have plenty for you I'm sure.

[venture]

First set of advisories...

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
921 PM CST TUE DEC 30 2014

OKZ036-037-044-TXZ083>090-311130-
/O.EXT.KOUN.ZR.Y.0001.141231T0321Z-141231T1500Z/
JACKSON-TILLMAN-COTTON-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-
BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALTUS...FREDERICK...WALTERS...QUANAH...
CHILLICOTHE...CROWELL...VERNON...WICHITA FALLS...MUNDAY...
KNOX CITY...SEYMOUR...ARCHER CITY...HOLLIDAY...LAKESIDE CITY...
HENRIETTA
921 PM CST TUE DEC 30 2014

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY.

* TIMING: OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS: UP TO 1/8 INCH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE CAREFUL IF YOU HAVE TO TRAVEL. EVEN SMALL AMOUNTS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE CAN MAKE ROADS AND SIDEWALKS SLICK AND DANGEROUS. IF YOU
MUST TRAVEL...TAKE EXTRA BLANKETS AND WINTER SAFETY ITEMS TO
SURVIVE IN THE COLD IF YOU ARE INVOLVED IN AN ACCIDENT OR SLIDE
OFF THE ROAD.

[venture]

00Z GFS UPDATE

Operational GFS
Tonight/Wednesday AM - Light snow, up to a dusting mainly SW and W OK.
Thursday - Freezing Rain/Sleet/Snow early in SW OK. Spread over I-44 corridor by Noon. Precip ends West to East by evening.
Friday AM - Light rain along Red River, dry elsewhere.
Friday PM - Rain develops by late afternoon/early evening along/southeast of I-44. Through the evening precip increases and shield of snow develops along I-35 and to the west.
Saturday AM - Snow band covers much of Central OK and Western OK (except far west). Precip rapidly end through the late morning hours.
Storm totals: Freezing Rain less than 0.1", Sleet less than 0.1", Snow a strip of snow from SW OK through NC OK with possible 2-5".

Parallel GFS
Tonight/Wednesday AM - Light snow, up to a dusting mainly SW and W OK.
Thursday - Freezing Rain/Sleet/Snow early in SW OK. Moves into Central OK by Noon. Change to mostly Rain by late afternoon before ending.
Friday AM - Light rain along Red River, Freezing Rain/Sleet/Snow in SW OK. Dry elsewhere.
Friday PM - By Noon rain over much of Central and SE OK. Rain/Snow/Sleet/Freezing Rain mix possible over far W and SW OK. Transition to mostly rain, some moderate, over much of the state except a mix far NW.
Saturday AM - Low moves through NE TX and keeps us mostly liquid over the state except NW OK. Wrap around Rain over the state with Snow NW.
Saturday PM - Wrap around snow NC OK, rain NE. Dry elsewhere.

[venture]

After being decently consistent the last couple days, NAM just shoved entire storm east, hardly any moisture in C or W OK. Sort-of lines up with the GFS from this morning.

00Z run kinda keeping the same thinking it appears. By 03Z SAT it does have a pretty hefty snow band from Shawnee-Norman-Duncan.

The track of the low though has me wondering just how much will be liquid. A track through NE TX normally means snow for us more often than not. A lot of cold air already in place, I really wonder how much warmer can realistically happen. A see a message where a couple degrees is going to completely change the forecast.

[Soonerman12]

Man i'm just really not sure about this storm...

[Soonerman12]

I have a feeling we may be dealing with cooler temps then what the models are throwing out, I think it may kind of be the same as last Saturday. I've seen the models do this way too many times, they change over and over (especially the day or two before) then final gives us the "correct" forecast the day of the event. I'm just not really thinking it is going to warm up that much to give us plain Jane rain. Who knows, i'd like to hear what all of you are thinking...

[Bobby821]

Same thing, staying colder than forecast

[venture]

Winter Wx Advisory for SW and SC OK...

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
501 AM CST WED DEC 31 2014

OKZ032-040>043-046>048-050>052-311915-
/O.NEW.KOUN.WW.Y.0016.150101T0600Z-150102T1200Z/
HUGHES-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-
MARSHALL-BRYAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HOLDENVILLE...PAULS VALLEY...SULPHUR...
ADA...COALGATE...ARDMORE...TISHOMINGO...ATOKA...MA RIETTA...
MADILL...DURANT
501 AM CST WED DEC 31 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
6 AM CST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6
AM CST FRIDAY.

* TIMING: FROM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

* MAIN IMPACT: AREAS OF ACCUMULATING SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN
ARE EXPECTED.

* OTHER IMPACTS: ROADS...BRIDGES...SIDEWALKS...AND PARKING LOTS
IN THE ADVISORY AREA MAY BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE CAREFUL IF YOU HAVE TO TRAVEL. EVEN SMALL AMOUNTS OF ICE AND
SLEET CAN MAKE ROADS AND SIDEWALKS SLICK AND DANGEROUS.

[Soonerman12]

David... Putting models aside, what do you think will happen for the majority of Oklahoma?? You thinking none of the models are handling this well just yet? I cant see temps warming up that much for at least Thursday and Friday. I think there is a good chance these will start changing this afternoon/evening.

[venture]

David... Putting models aside, what do you think will happen for the majority of Oklahoma?? You thinking none of the models are handling this well just yet? I cant see temps warming up that much for at least Thursday and Friday. I think there is a good chance these will start changing this afternoon/evening.

The two big questions right now are...

1) Will the cold air move around a bit to allow things to warm up enough for pure rain and no icing?

2) How much precip will actually fall or will the amounts be lighter as some models are suggesting?

Hopefully we can get some answers once the 12Z runs start to come in.

[venture]

With the sun up and finally light out, looks like we picked up a very light dusting in Norman overnight with a small band of snow that moved through.

[Anonymous.]

NAM is still trying to skirt most of the action east, but still holds hope for some SW and C OK precip.

GFS coming back with heavier amounts now over most of state. Even hinting at potential heavy snow banding somewhere from SW OK to NC OK, with wrap around.


Ground temps right now are ripe for an ice storm, regardless - whatever is falling will be sticking if the air temps stay below freezing (especially in the sub 30F range).

[venture]

Band of light snow picking up a bit over SW OK. mPING snow reports coming in now from Altus to Lawton to Marlow and over towards Ardmore. Band will slowly move north but probably won't survive long enough to impact most of us.

[venture]

Snow picking up a bit over the far southern Metro area and another band down to the SW. Movement NE.

[OKCisOK4me]

Well, Old Man Winter is trying to spit out a little moisture over here by Kilpatrick & I-40.

[venture]

12Z GFS kicking off a good band of heavier precip by 12AM Saturday right along I-44 through the state. Parallel GFS has a similar feature as well. Right now both have it as all rain, but that just means we will need to be watching temps all the more closely.

[ksearls]

Keeping an eye on things for my friend who needs to drive back from Santa Fe. Do you see any time over the next few days that will be safe? If it was you when would you do it? (not counting today)

Thanks for all you do!

[Soonerman12]

David... Starting to look clearer to you? I just can't imagine it warming up a ton.. What do you think ANON?

[Anonymous.]

GFS is still saying mostly rain for majority of OK, it is going to be close.

Right now our storm is churning away over in Arizona. As it slowly approaches, it will begin to bring warmer, moister air over the S Plains. It is just a matter of how warm and when.

[venture]

Concern going up some for more icing here in Central sections as Euro is coming in colder now. Remember...this is going to be a very thin line we will be on temp wise.

[OkieHornet]

for what timeline? tomorrow? or saturday?

[sayyes]

Nothing yet??