General Weather Discussion - January/February 2015

[venture]

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Current Conditions
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Air Temperature	Dewpoint	Winds	Rainfall Last 24 Hours

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Advisory Table	NWS Norman Warning Area	NWS Tulsa Warning Area
Tornado Warning Tornado Watch Severe T-Storm Warning Severe T-Storm Watch Blizzard Warning Blizzard Watch Winter Storm Warning Winter Storm Watch Ice Storm Warning Red Flag Warning Winter Weather Advisory Wind Chill Advisory Wind Chill Warning Freezing Rain Advisory

Other Color Meanings: Web-Based Watch/Warning/Advisory Map Colors - NOAA's National Weather Service

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Radar & Satellite for Oklahoma[hr][/hr]

[hr][/hr]Severe Weather Outlooks & Products
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Day 1 (Today) Outlook	Day 2 (Tomorrow) Outlook	Day 3 Outlook	Outlook for Days 4 through 8

[hr][/hr]Winter Precipitation Model Forecasts
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NAM 12Z/00Z Run - Winter Precip Accumulation - 84HR Top: 10:1 Snowfall, Middle: Sleet, Bottom: Freezing Rain Accumulation Totals	NAM 06Z/18Z Run - Winter Precip Accumulation - 84HR Top: 10:1 Snowfall, Middle: Sleet, Bottom: Freezing Rain Accumulation Totals	RUC T+1.5HR Run - 10:1 Snow Accumulation - 18HR
		WRF 12Z/00Z Run - 10:1 Snow Accumulation - 48HR

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	Snow Accumulation	Sleet	Freezing Rain
Operational GFS 12Z/00Z Run (144 Hr Totals)
Operational GFS 06Z/18Z Run (120 Hr Totals)
GEM Run (144 Hr Totals)

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Lightning image is © Blitzortung.org. Mesonet maps are all © of the Oklahoma Mesonet / OU Board of Regents.

[venture]

With the incoming winter storm that will happen right as we enter January, I've put this thread up a bit early. I tried to clear out some of the information at the top to add in better visibility of the winter forecast model products.

[Anonymous.]

Classic winter storm for the southern plains shaping up.

Cold air blast coming into the state now, we have likely seen the sun for the last time this week.

Temperatures will struggle to make freezing the next few days, perhaps a few degrees above just before storm hits.

Ground temperatures will be very cold as night time lows will be in the teens and daytime highs of <32F with limited sunshine.


All of these things will lead a deepening low that will move across TX and OK. Grab your popcorn and turn on the local news @ 10 (just kidding, please don't post their forecasts).

[Bobby821]

That's awesome news, it is wintertime so let it be winter precip.

[s00nr1]

That's awesome news, it is wintertime so let it be winter precip.

Hardly "awesome" to those who are severely impacted by ice.

[Bobby821]

Hardly "awesome" to those who are severely impacted by ice.

We haven't had a good ice storm in a few years, hopefully this one pans out for the metro with ice and snow

[s00nr1]

Anyone hoping for a "good ice storm" should probably have their head checked.

[bchris02]

Hopefully it comes as snow or a winter mix. Ice storms cause nothing but problems and are only welcomed by school-age children in hopes they will get out of school.

[LocoAko]

Hopefully it comes as snow or a winter mix. Ice storms cause nothing but problems and are only welcomed by school-age children in hopes they will get out of school.

Well, they can make for some stunningly beautiful photographs IMO, but that's not quite reason enough to root for them lol.

Though of course, as with storm chasing, whether you root for or against it has no actual effect on the outcome so as long as it isn't tactless it isn't unethical, but I digress...

[venture]

Let's try to keep the thread on track and avoid direct personal digs. These threads always will attract those that like extreme weather and I don't think anyone wishes for it so that it would cause harm to others.

[ouamber]

When will this storm be sampled? Or is it already being sampled on shore? The 18Z models looked like the low was tracking a tad north when it finally kicks out later towards the weekend. Any thoughts?

[OKCisOK4me]

Waiting to see what the local mets say here at 10PM?

[rtz]

Some just released video:

[Soonerman12]

Anon/David.... What's the latest on our potential winter storm? GFS looking wet, but will temps be there?

[venture]

Anon/David.... What's the latest on our potential winter storm? GFS looking wet, but will temps be there?

Not sure if you have looked the last couple of updates, but the AFDs from Norman keep pointing out that the operation GFS (the one linked in the graphics above and the one most accessible online) has traditional stayed warm with the system contrary to the Parallel GFS and other models. So let's take that thought from them and combine it with what we typically see....cold air rushing in faster or staying established - heck, the last snowfall was a result of temps dropping just a couple degrees below guidance and bam. So this is kinda where everything is falling...

Thursday - Freezing Rain & Sleet for nearly everyone.
Friday - Freezing Rain to start the day and then hopefully enough warming to turn off the ice machine. This will also be the time period with the highest precip amounts.
Saturday - Wrap around snow that Anon has mentioned with best chances north as the rest of us will probably get dry slotted.

In the mean time, we do have snow chances today...mainly an inch of less for everyone along/west of I-35.

[Soonerman12]

David... Yeah I saw that. Do you think dry slot will be for central and southwest or pretty much take over all the state. I've noticed the models are changing quite a bit every run (LOL normal for Oklahoma before winter storms) But it seems like my part of the state may miss out on quite a bit. (Tulsa)

[Anonymous.]

NAM is even more Bread and Milk today. Still not sure on wrap-around snow for NAM.

GFS is unraveling storm quite a bit and shoving the system off east quickly. Starting to be outlier.

[s00nr1]

[Soonerman12]

Anon.... When you say bread and milk is it for west/central OK or ALL of OK? Also, is GFS starting to look like it may not be picking up on the storm "correctly"?

[venture]

Anon.... When you say bread and milk is it for west/central OK or ALL of OK? Also, is GFS starting to look like it may not be picking up on the storm "correctly"?

If you don't have this site, I really like it for Parallel GFS runs: Parallel GFS - Numerical Model Prediction - Tropical Tidbits

So P-GFS has sleet starting around here by 18Z Thursday. To show how things have trended, here is that forecast hour for the last ~32 P-GFS runs (most recent first): http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analy...us_comp54.html

Overall forecast animation: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analy..._frzn_eus.html

[venture]

Here is another good comparison of the 12Z GFS (top one) vs. P-GFS runs for the exact some forecast period - 18Z Thursday.

[Soonerman12]

Thanks David I appreciate it!

[Anonymous.]

After being decently consistent the last couple days, NAM just shoved entire storm east, hardly any moisture in C or W OK. Sort-of lines up with the GFS from this morning.

[Easy180]

After being decently consistent the last couple days, NAM just shoved entire storm east, hardly any moisture in C or W OK. Sort-of lines up with the GFS from this morning.

Let's hope this pans out. Don't nobody want ice.

[OKCisOK4me]

I'll take dry.