General Weather Discussion - November 2014

[venture]

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Air Temperature	Dewpoint	Winds	Rainfall Last 24 Hours

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Advisory Table	NWS Norman Warning Area	NWS Tulsa Warning Area
Tornado Warning Tornado Watch Severe T-Storm Warning Severe T-Storm Watch Blizzard Warning Blizzard Watch Winter Storm Warning Winter Storm Watch Ice Storm Warning Red Flag Warning Winter Weather Advisory Wind Chill Advisory Wind Chill Warning Freezing Rain Advisory

Other Color Meanings: Web-Based Watch/Warning/Advisory Map Colors - NOAA's National Weather Service

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Radar & Satellite for Oklahoma[hr][/hr]

[hr][/hr]Severe Weather Outlooks & Products
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Day 1 (Today) Outlook	Day 2 (Tomorrow) Outlook	Day 3 Outlook	Outlook for Days 4 through 8

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National Advisory Map	SPC Mesoscale Discussions (MCD or MD)	Regional Live Lightning Image
	SPC Watches

[hr][/hr]Winter Precipitation Model Forecasts
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NAM 12Z/00Z Run - 10:1 Snow Accumulation - 84HR	NAM 06Z/18Z Run - 10:1 Snow Accumulation - 84HR	RUC T+1.5HR Run - 10:1 Snow Accumulation - 18HR

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WRF 12Z/00Z Run - 10:1 Snow Accumulation - 48HR	GFS 12Z/00Z Run - 10:1 Snow Accumulation - 144HR	GFS 06Z/18Z Run - 10:1 Snow Accumulation - 120HR

Additional information is always available via: http://www.weatherspotlight.com/ Including the side-by-side model comparisons per run time. Lightning image is © Blitzortung.org. Mesonet maps are all © of the Oklahoma Mesonet / OU Board of Regents.

[venture]

Decent shot of rain moving in tomorrow through Tuesday. Some areas along I-44 and to the SE will get well over an inch of rain. Nothing severe as it stands now, maybe some marginal stuff SW.

Longer range nothing severe showing up either. Next storm system comes in around the 14th with another chance of heavy rain and snow mixed in.

[venture]

Heavy rain still on tap for tonight and tomorrow. Rainfall forecasts below. Snow still in the longer range forecast between the 14th and 18th depending on the timing of that system.

NWS Forecast


NAM 36 Hour


GFS 36 Hour

[Anonymous.]

This will be great heading into the winter months where we already have exceedingly dry conditions. Let's hope the main rain band is larger than forecasted at the moment - as most of OK needs it.

[venture]

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN NM...WRN TX / TX PANHANDLE...AND
WRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 032143Z - 032345Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST
AND/OR LARGE HAIL REPORT.

DISCUSSION...WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS...AS WELL AS CONVERGENCE ALONG A SFC
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH...WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. WHILE THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT IS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE...BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF ERN NM AND WRN TX HAVE RESULTED IN TEMPS RISING INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THEREFORE...DESPITE MEAGER MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...MLCAPE VALUES UPWARDS OF 500 J/KG HAVE BEEN REALIZED PER
MESO-ANALYSIS DATA.

WITH STORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING...EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR OF AROUND 40-50 KT WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ORGANIZATION /E.G. SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES/ WITH ANY OF THE MORE
ROBUST UPDRAFTS THAT DEVELOP. CONSIDERING THIS POTENTIAL...AND THE
POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING DUE TO SOME GREATER
INSOLATION...ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS OR MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL
REPORTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS THIS EVENING.

..PICCA/MOSIER/MEAD.. 11/03/2014

[Anonymous.]

Looks like band is setting as forecast. Lots of rain!

[Plutonic Panda]

For what it's worth, I forecast a snowy cold winter and a white Christmas this winter, is that ok?

[ljbab728]

For what it's worth, I forecast a snowy cold winter and a white Christmas this winter, is that ok?

Only the Christmas part.

[Bunty]

Close to an inch and a quarter of rain in Stillwater as of midnight with more rain coming.

[Plutonic Panda]

Only the Christmas part.

I'll take it! ;P

[Bobby821]

How likely is this snow event coming together on the 14th? and will this be an all out snow or just a flurry or 2 mixed in event?

[iambecoming]

For what it's worth, I forecast a snowy cold winter and a white Christmas this winter, is that ok?

Hope you're right, bring it on!

[bradh]

So what's the story on next week and next weekend? Where is the best source for long range forecasting? I'm headed to CLE next Friday for a football game next Sunday, sounds like I need to bring my ski gear with me!

[venture]

For CLE this weekend looks like a fast clipper like system blowing through that might bring a rain/snow mix. Following weekend looks cold and dry.

For down here, the focus would be on a storm system coming in from the Pac NW around the 8th and 9th. It will dive into Nebraska and really deepen. When this happens it is going to pull a ton of cold air down from Western Canada over much of the US. The low will then head back north up over Hudson Bay and continues to pour tons of cold air down our way. GFS on Nov 12th has OKC in the 30s for highs that day and down below freezing by early evening.



Do I expect it to play out exactly like this? No. However, don't be shocked to see a decent cold snap take place. Now the next question...what about precip? Good or bad...this system is coming in pretty dry. It doesn't look like any precip is really going to accompany it here in OK. When it comes to precip we will probably need to look just beyond Nov 20th for a possible precip maker.

[venture]

Cold air still on the way as I've been mentioning for a few days now. Snow chances are minimal still, but don't get shocked to see some next Weds/Thursday...ish.

[Roger S]

Snow chances are minimal still, but don't get shocked to see some next Weds/Thursday...ish.

Don't be shocked if you see me on the news running around with my new propane weed torch trying to melt it before it hits the ground.

[silvergrove]

For down here, the focus would be on a storm system coming in from the Pac NW around the 8th and 9th. It will dive into Nebraska and really deepen. When this happens it is going to pull a ton of cold air down from Western Canada over much of the US. The low will then head back north up over Hudson Bay and continues to pour tons of cold air down our way. GFS on Nov 12th has OKC in the 30s for highs that day and down below freezing by early evening.

I presume this is the remnant of Nuri?

[bradh]

venture i checked the CLE forecast today, snow showers the morning before kickoff Sunday....oh boy!

[venture]

venture i checked the CLE forecast today, snow showers the morning before kickoff Sunday....oh boy!

Should be nothing to worry about.

Update for us...late on the 14th expect snow to move into Northern OK. 1-2" possible north two tiers of counties. Another wave of snow on the 16th has the chance to bring a widespread 1-2" over much of the state...but I'm not holding my breath.

[OKCRT]

Looks like winter will arrive this coming week. I keep hearing old timers saying this will be a much colder than average winter. I guess some of the old timers get this from the almanac. I used to hear about the almanac years ago being popular for upcoming weather forcasts but haven't really heard mention of it in many years. I wonder just how accurate it is. Anyone have any experience using the alamanc?

[Celebrator]

A friend of mine who keeps horses here said that their winter coats were growing on them earlier than usual which she asserts means that it will be a harsher winter. Anyone else seen any other signs in nature of a tougher winter?

[bchris02]

I am pretty sure, from everything I have heard, that this will be like last winter, with regular polar vortexes bringing below normal temperatures to the eastern half of the United States.

[venture]

Oh to get through a season with out the buzz words "polar vortex" would be amazing.

Cold air still on tap, no changes there. Snow chances look best on Saturday into Sunday. Nothing major at all and most will be light and mixed with rain it seems. Cold air remains with a strong reinforcement coming around the 18th and 19th. Talking highs in the 20s.

Get your holiday decorations up this weekend. Fast. :-P

[Bunty]

FREEZE WATCH - Doesn't include Oklahoma City:

Freeze Watch

Updated: Sun Nov-09-14 12:51pm CST
Effective: Sun Nov-09-14 12:51pm CST
Expires: Tue Nov-11-14 11:00am CST
Severity: Moderate
Urgency: Future
Certainty: Possible
Status: Actual
Type: Alert
Category: Met
Areas affected: Alfalfa; Beckham; Blaine; Caddo; Canadian; Custer; Dewey; Garfield; Grant; Greer; Harmon; Kay; Kingfisher; Kiowa; Logan; Major; Noble; Payne; Roger Mills; Wash ita

Instructions: Think about how you will protect sensitive plants from the cold.

Message summary: ...freeze watch in effect from late monday night through tuesday morning...
* temperature: 28 to 32 degrees minimum.
* impacts: many cold-intolerant plants could be damaged.

[venture]

Everyone in the state is going to have a hard freeze this week. No sense in "watching" for it.