General Weather Discussion - July 2014

[Bunty]

A gust front, probably really the cold front, has come through Stillwater with a nice 10 degree drop from the 94 degree high, but already the storms in the north part of the state are weakening.

[venture]

New storm firing up pretty quick over East Norman near the lake.

[dmoor82]

^^^ pretty good lightning show here in MWC looking South!

[venture]

Storm is collapsing already, good outflow ring spreading out from it now.

[LocoAko]

Really lovely just to hear rumbling thunder in the air. Had some good lightning with it for a while, too, and a decent downburst signature, at least on radar. :P

[bchris02]

The 7-day forecast this week looks more like the first week of October than it does mid-July. I might need to break out my hoodie on Thursday.

[Anonymous.]

Next few days:

3-5 inches of much of OK.

[John1744]

Is this looking pretty likely seeing as it's only a day or two out? I remember seeing hopeful patterns like this last month and they'd kind of fall apart or 3-5" would turn into .5-1".

[Anonymous.]

I would say it is likely someone is going to get 3-5 inches, but there is still uncertainty in storm track.

NAM still favoring NE OK.
Latest GFS slams the southern 2/3 of OK, with just south of I-40 corridor being bullseye.

I am just looking forward to not having to run AC the next couple days.

[ljbab728]

Now I'm hearing about the possibility of more rain into the middle of next week with below normal temps.

[venture]

Slight Risk today over Western OK...

...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
REMNANTS OF ONGOING NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF ERN WY...CO
AND WRN KS MAY CONTINUE EARLY IN THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO
CONVERGENCE AND WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A MODEST SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN KS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO PROGRESS SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL KS AND WRN/CENTRAL OK
DURING THE DAY. STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...AND IN THE WAKE
OF THE EARLIER STORMS...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF DIABATIC
HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR WITH LARGEST MLCAPE REACHING
1500-2000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM SERN CO INTO WEST TX.


CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON WITHIN THE
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER EAST CENTRAL/SERN CO AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
IN ADVANCE OF THE SEWD MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH COUPLES WITH
LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW. STRONG DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR WITH
HEIGHT WILL PROMOTE ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING A FEW
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO SEVERAL CLUSTERS OR SHORT
LINE SEGMENTS DURING THE EVENING AS THEY PROGRESS SEWD WITH A
CONTINUING THREAT OF SEVERE WIND AND HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS
AGAIN AFTER DARK OVER WEST TX AND WRN OK...ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER 06Z AS STORMS MOVE INTO A
LESS UNSTABLE AIR MASS.

[Bunty]

The system isn't looking as strong as expected to Mike Morgan of KFOR. He reduced his max projected rain amounts in Oklahoma from over 4" to over 2".

[OKCisOK4me]

CBS Morning News has 2-5 everywhere in OK but the northeast.

[Anonymous.]

NAM still favoring NE OK. GFS favoring SW and SC OK.

SW OK looks like latest bullseye zone.

[Bunty]

NAM still favoring NE OK. GFS favoring SW and SC OK.

SW OK looks like latest bullseye zone.

KFOR now has Tulsa projected getting the most with 4.61" by 11 pm Thursday. For the next heaviest Ada has 3.50". McAlester and Stillwater has 3.17". I'll believe it when my rain gauge says so. So far, in Stillwater, nearly a half inch and at 60 degrees, getting about cold enough to shut the windows. OKC gets shortchanged for a change with only .76".

[venture]

18Z NAM


18Z GFS

[venture]

Imagine if it was winter and all snow...

[Achilleslastand]

Imagine if it was winter and all snow...

Feels like winter almost dosnt it...........
I think this is what you call a "false fall".

[venture]

Looks like a split win for the GFS and NAM to an extent...may be a bit more on the side of the GFS solution we had a few days ago.

[venture]

KFOR now has Tulsa projected getting the most with 4.61" by 11 pm Thursday. For the next heaviest Ada has 3.50". McAlester and Stillwater has 3.17". I'll believe it when my rain gauge says so. So far, in Stillwater, nearly a half inch and at 60 degrees, getting about cold enough to shut the windows. OKC gets shortchanged for a change with only .76".

Well Tulsa got 0.25" for the last 3 days...so I think KFOR needs to revisit their forecasting methods. LOL

[Andrew4OU]

Looks like Altus is the big winner for this rain event! Definitely where they need it the most.

[Anonymous.]

That narrow corridor SE of OKC metro has local 7"+.

Awesome rain for most of the state. Crazy how SC OK got almost entirely skipped despite 2+ inches on all sides.

[OkieHornet]

someone in my office said sanger, tx (in north tx) has gotten almost 10" of rain and I-35 is/was closed in that area.

[Tavia]

I also read that I-35 North is closed, Denton received 3.5 inches of rain in 1 hour ):

[Roger S]

Once again my place in Carter County gets skirted by the 1"+ totals.... It's like we have a freaking dome over us.

I was watching radar of the rain moving from the West this morning and it would get to Healdton and then just start to dissipate.