General Weather Discussion - March 2014

[venture]

LOL Too bad you can't block OKCBoomer from this forum Venture. He's obviously ignorant to the people on this site. Your absolutely right Plutonic Panda, we risk our lives because we love to help and give vital information to save lives. Tornadoes are going to happen in this state no matter what so we might as well study them. OKCboomer, If all of us chasers stop chasing tell me how much warning time you would have... I know that radars can detect rotation but many times it's hard to tell if one is actually touching the ground. Also, you think we are sick and twisted and filling a void in our lives? So are you saying people that fight fires are sick? Do police officers become police officers so they can shoot someone and fill a sick void? The answer is no, there's actually people out there trying to help and keep this world safe. I'm sorry that someone has made you such a sad disappointing person that doesn't have a d@mn thing to believe in. Do you always think people are out to get you? Are you the type that thinks the government controls our weather? Lol I mean you act like us chasers create the d@mn tornado. Good day to you sir.

Alright let's dial it back a little bit. In reality I don't view storm chasers anywhere near the same level as emergency responders. The majority of people chaser aren't reporting their observations back to the local NWS office or Skywarn coordinator. Most aren't doing reports for the media or EOC. Most are out their for personal reasons and the closest thing they will do to submitting a report is a YouTube video.

With that said, there are many who are out there for academic reasons and also to be the eyes for NWS and emergency response. Let's keep it realistic though. While I'm not saying you are one who doesn't report anything, most out there don't.

Regardless, ground truth observations are always going to be needed and are something that can't be done alone with just local media and their band of egos speeding around. I loved listening to the local frequencies with all the spotters reporting in and moving around to make sure they had everything covered. The vast amount of spotter/chaser coverage here is both a great thing and a curse. A great thing that nothing really slips by...a curse because 2-lane country highways now become mile long backups because there are so many doing it now.

[venture]

Venture... According to your data what are you seeing as far as severe weather is concerned for today? I'm seeing some dew points surging into the mid 50's to 60's here in Tulsa and eastern OK with a pretty strong low level jet. Our temps look to be pretty sufficient for tstorm development..... What are you seeing?

There is also a pretty monster sized cap out there today as well. That's going to be tough to break in Oklahoma. Looks like best chance for severe today is up in MO and maybe north Central AR.

[venture]

The map I've seen for today shows a triple-point set up just west of Tulsa. Interesting to see the dryline that far east. The TV mets are starting to hype a severe weather event mid-week next week. Does that look like something to worry about at this time?

Nothing to get all excited about yet. Looks like Tuesday a chance in SW and Western OK, Wednesday a chance east of I-35.

[Soonerman12]

Venture... I don't either, I was making a point. Meteorologist do try to save lives though just not on a level as local responders. He was assuming things about people and they are absolutely not doing anything to bother him.

[Soonerman12]

bchris02... I'm starting to notice the same thing. Weather models are hard to tell that far out though especially when the projected system is still in the pacific ocean. Once the storm makes land they will have much better data. They were probably hyping it to keep people aware that it's spring and the majority of the time when we have storms in spring there going to be severe to some level. It'll be interesting to see what happens though. I do know it's going to be warmer so anything can happen. Good comment, it'll give us something interesting to talk about. (just watch out for other members though, they'll probably think you are in a dark room worshiping satan and hoping for complete life destruction LOL)

[Soonerman12]

I completely agree there is people out there that chase to be "daredevils" and look to be stupid. But for someone to assuming something about someone is wrong. Also, for someone to get mad and say I wish for complete destruction to life because I asked where the most likely areas for chasing will be is absolutely ridiculous.

[OKCTalker]

The majority of people chaser aren't reporting their observations back to the local NWS office or Skywarn coordinator. Most aren't doing reports for the media or EOC. Most are out their for personal reasons and the closest thing they will do to submitting a report is a YouTube video.

Soonerman12 - You wrote, "I have chased for 8 years" and "I chase for the science." Are you paid by or working under contract with any governmental agency, private sector weather entity or media outlet?

[LocoAko]

Alright let's dial it back a little bit. In reality I don't view storm chasers anywhere near the same level as emergency responders. The majority of people chaser aren't reporting their observations back to the local NWS office or Skywarn coordinator. Most aren't doing reports for the media or EOC. Most are out their for personal reasons and the closest thing they will do to submitting a report is a YouTube video.

With that said, there are many who are out there for academic reasons and also to be the eyes for NWS and emergency response. Let's keep it realistic though. While I'm not saying you are one who doesn't report anything, most out there don't.

Regardless, ground truth observations are always going to be needed and are something that can't be done alone with just local media and their band of egos speeding around. I loved listening to the local frequencies with all the spotters reporting in and moving around to make sure they had everything covered. The vast amount of spotter/chaser coverage here is both a great thing and a curse. A great thing that nothing really slips by...a curse because 2-lane country highways now become mile long backups because there are so many doing it now.

Beat me to it. I don't know about him, but I don't chase with my primary reason to help save lives from spotting, and claiming so would be completely disingenuous. I chase for fun (and photography). Of course it helps the NWS to have reports, but most chasers need to admit they're not doing the field a "service" to any significant extent. Some of my friends and classmates truly chase for "the science" (with field projects, radars, etc.) and I have done ballooning in the past to collect data. However, 90% of the time (if I'm not on a project), I don't claim to be doing it "for the science". It is purely a hobby.

That said, chasing for fun is not immoral and I have zero shame about what I do. It'd be ethically questionable if we were able to control the weather, but it is going to happen. There is nothing wrong with wanting to witness it. Some of us are amazed by the power and beauty of the atmosphere (and have chosen to dedicate their lives to it) - not to fill a "void" in our lives (serious eyeroll). I don't know of a single chaser that WANTS a tornado to hit a populated area, so you can let that little meme die out, too. We'd all prefer open fields. I could even buy the argument that it'd be ethically questionable to profit off of photos of lives being ruined (and I don't endorse that) -- but I hope you're prepared to be equally OUTRAGED!!!!!11!!1!1 at professional photographers who make their living doing just that.

[venture]

Loco nailed it. Can't say it any better. So back to weather...



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0208
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1147 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...WRN MO...FAR NERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 271647Z - 271915Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DISCRETE STORMS SHOULD FORM IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG A DRYLINE BEING OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT.
ALTHOUGH BUOYANCY WILL BE LIMITED...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS CONDUCIVE TO SUPERCELLS WILL FAVOR A RISK OF SEVERE HAIL
AND A FEW TORNADOES PEAKING DURING LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

DISCUSSION...16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 992 MB CYCLONE OVER FAR
SERN NEB WITH AN ATTENDANT WARM FRONT TO THE E/SE ACROSS NRN MO. A
DRYLINE IS MIXING EWD INTO ERN KS WITH A COLD FRONT LAGGING JUST
BEHIND AT PRESENT ACROSS CNTRL KS. A CONFINED PLUME OF 50-55 DEG F
SURFACE DEW POINTS EXISTS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE IN ERN KS AND WILL
SHIFT EWD INTO WRN MO THIS AFTERNOON. CU DEVELOPMENT HAS COMMENCED
ALONG THE DRYLINE W OF EMP...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS
DESTABILIZATION INCREASES. CONVECTION SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN TIED TO
THE DRYLINE OWING TO EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS/INHIBITION DOWNSTREAM IN
MO ATTM. THE DRYLINE WILL LIKELY BE OVERTAKEN BY THE COLD FRONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROGRESS
E/NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MO VALLEY. DESPITE MLCAPE REMAINING WEAK AT
AOB 1000 J/KG...STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES PER MODIFIED RAP/NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL SPEED SHEAR PER
TWX/EAX VWP DATA SHOULD FAVOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS PRODUCING SEVERE
HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES.

..GRAMS/THOMPSON.. 03/27/2014

[Plutonic Panda]

LOL Too bad you can't block OKCBoomer from this forum Venture. He's obviously ignorant to the people on this site. Your absolutely right Plutonic Panda, we risk our lives because we love to help and give vital information to save lives. Tornadoes are going to happen in this state no matter what so we might as well study them. OKCboomer, If all of us chasers stop chasing tell me how much warning time you would have... I know that radars can detect rotation but many times it's hard to tell if one is actually touching the ground. Also, you think we are sick and twisted and filling a void in our lives? So are you saying people that fight fires are sick? Do police officers become police officers so they can shoot someone and fill a sick void? The answer is no, there's actually people out there trying to help and keep this world safe. I'm sorry that someone has made you such a sad disappointing person that doesn't have a d@mn thing to believe in. Do you always think people are out to get you? Are you the type that thinks the government controls our weather? Lol I mean you act like us chasers create the d@mn tornado. Good day to you sir.

+1

[Plutonic Panda]

Alright let's dial it back a little bit. In reality I don't view storm chasers anywhere near the same level as emergency responders. The majority of people chaser aren't reporting their observations back to the local NWS office or Skywarn coordinator. Most aren't doing reports for the media or EOC. Most are out their for personal reasons and the closest thing they will do to submitting a report is a YouTube video.

Wasn't referring to those people Venture.

[ou48A]

LOL Too bad you can't block OKCBoomer from this forum Venture. He's obviously ignorant to the people on this site. Your absolutely right Plutonic Panda, we risk our lives because we love to help and give vital information to save lives. Tornadoes are going to happen in this state no matter what so we might as well study them. OKCboomer, If all of us chasers stop chasing tell me how much warning time you would have... I know that radars can detect rotation but many times it's hard to tell if one is actually touching the ground. Also, you think we are sick and twisted and filling a void in our lives? So are you saying people that fight fires are sick? Do police officers become police officers so they can shoot someone and fill a sick void? The answer is no, there's actually people out there trying to help and keep this world safe. I'm sorry that someone has made you such a sad disappointing person that doesn't have a d@mn thing to believe in. Do you always think people are out to get you? Are you the type that thinks the government controls our weather? Lol I mean you act like us chasers create the d@mn tornado. Good day to you sir.

+1
As someone who spotted for the civil defense and chased storms in the late 1970's when it wasn't what it is now I can appreciate the dedication of modern professional chasers who operate with ethical behavior.

The best chasing is done in the rural areas. We should do every thing we can to keep folks off the road during severe weather in the metro areas.
This is one reason why we need far many more certified storm shelters at work, school and home.

[venture]

Very limited area for this watch, but it is our first tornado watch in the state for the year...

Ww 33 tornado ks mo ok 271755z - 280100z
axis..80 statute miles east and west of line..
50nnw cdj/chillicothe mo/ - 60s cnu/chanute ks/ ..aviation coords.. 70nm e/w /59ssw dsm - 25ssw osw/ hail surface and aloft..1.5 inches. Wind gusts..60 knots.
Max tops to 350. Mean storm motion vector 25040.

OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CRAIG NOWATA OTTAWA

[jn1780]

Now KFOR is using a 6 level severe weather outlook.
Slight
Enhanced Slight
Moderate
Enhanced Moderate
High
Enhanced High

Guess there are going to be different shades of severe weather Mike Morgan severe weather ties also. lol

[tomokc]

Now KFOR is using a 6 level severe weather outlook.
Slight
Enhanced Slight
Moderate
Enhanced Moderate
High
Enhanced High

This looks familiar...

Inspired by the success of the forest fire color system, the scale consists of five color-coded threat levels, which are intended to reflect the probability of a terrorist attack and its potential gravity.
Severe (red): severe risk
High (orange): high risk
Elevated (yellow): significant risk
Guarded (blue): general risk
Low (green): low risk

The Department of Homeland Security terminated this advisory system because, according to Secretary Janet Napolitano, "the system often presented little practical information to the public."

All I know is that when Mike Morgan puts on a sparkly tie, I'm getting in my car and driving south.

[jn1780]

This looks familiar...

Inspired by the success of the forest fire color system, the scale consists of five color-coded threat levels, which are intended to reflect the probability of a terrorist attack and its potential gravity.
Severe (red): severe risk
High (orange): high risk
Elevated (yellow): significant risk
Guarded (blue): general risk
Low (green): low risk

The Department of Homeland Security terminated this advisory system because, according to Secretary Janet Napolitano, "the system often presented little practical information to the public."

All I know is that when Mike Morgan puts on a sparkly tie, I'm getting in my car and driving south.

That's exactly what came to my mind. lol

[venture]

Touched on this briefly in the past...but SPC has go ahead and already flagged it for next Wednesday.

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

VALID 311200Z - 051200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT MAINTAINING A PROGRESSIVE AND
ACTIVE PATTERN IN THE 4-8 PERIOD WITH A SERIES OF RELATIVELY
LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVES TRAVERSING THE COUNTRY.

WED /DAY 6/...SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS
DAY 4 AND EVENTUALLY THE GREAT LAKES DAY 5 WILL BE STARVED OF
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS AS A NEUTRAL TILT OR
SLIGHTLY POSITIVE TILT FEATURE LATER DAY 6. MODELS INCLUDING MOST
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE DEMONSTRATED RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AS WELL AS
CONSISTENCY AMONG THEMSELVES REGARDING THIS FEATURE. AN AXIS OF
PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WILL LIKELY RETURN NWD BENEATH STEEP
LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER-MID MS VALLEY AREA AS A
LLJ DEVELOPS AHEAD OF ATTENDANT LEE CYCLONE. MEANWHILE WIND PROFILES
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. IT APPEARS THAT CLOUDS AND
EARLY CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CONVEYOR BELT. HOWEVER
IN WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ADDITIONAL MORE
ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE...ESPECIALLY FROM OK
INTO NRN TX AND SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE THROUGH WARM SECTOR. GIVEN
SLIGHTLY POSITIVE TILT NATURE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...CAPPING COULD BE
A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY WITH SRN EXTENT INTO TX. THOUGH MESOSCALE
DETAILS REMAIN UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME...OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS
SUFFICIENT FOR A HIGHER END SEVERE THREAT FROM A PART OF THE SRN
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY REGION.

MODELS BECOME INCREASINGLY DISPERSIVE AND UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
BEYOND DAY 6.

[bchris02]

Statistically does most of our precipitation in April and May come from supercell storms?

[venture]

Statistically does most of our precipitation in April and May come from supercell storms?

I wouldn't say most...and I wouldn't say that they have to be from supercells - that's just trying to categorize this in the wrong way. Not everyone storm is a supercell.

This is where we stand so far...

[venture]

Storm Outlook...

This is all for April, but I'll hold off on getting that thread going until we get with in a few days.

Monday March 31st
The day before the day before the day. Looks like some moisture return kicks in on Monday. Dews will get in the low to mid 50s from Central to Eastern OK. GFS wants to get some 60s up into EC and SE OK ahead of the dryline that will race east and run from Tulsa to Ardmore by early evening. Instability doesn't look to be all that high, CAPE around 1500 j/kg and LIs around -4. Overall conditions don't look like a significant day at all, but should be supportive of a few isolate hail storms. Main risk area will be east of the dry line and confined to Eastern OK.

Tuesday April 1st
Deeper moisture return appears to take place on Tuesday and higher instability in SW/SC OK. CAPE values could exceed 2000, LIs around -7, and dew points in the low 60s. Dryline is well to the west for this day as the moisture builds in. Environmental conditions appear they will be favorable for rotating storms and the associated risks that go along with those. Forecast sounding from SW OK looks like this...



Greatest risk around for Tuesday is going to be South of I-40 and then along/east of I-44.

Wednesday April 2nd

This appears to be the more significant day. Dryline will be out west, inside Oklahoma a row or two of counties by early evening. GFS is a little crazy with moisture return, but we'll go with it for the sake of discussion. Dews in the mid 60s for much of Central and Eastern OK. Instability will be high to very high with LIs around -7 to -9, CAPE values from 2500 to 3000 j/kg over an area from NE through C through SW OK. Looks like storms would get going by late afternoon start in SW OK and build to the NE - I'm sure right up I-44 since storms come with GPS and maps now and love that interstate.

Forecast sounding is pretty tough, but we've seen worse and this is 6 days out...



Beyond Wednesday...Thursday has a risk but mainly far east OK into the MS Valley.

[LocoAko]

Some true-to-life chasing humor for y'all. :P

[venture]

LOL...that is so true. Though I loved chasing down in the Wichitas as they provided a really awesome background for some photos.

[venture]

Several storms popping up today with some small hail in Central OK. Severe storm in Eastern OK.

[venture]

Also...I'm trying out a new color palate for the radar...not sure I like it, but we'll see.

[bchris02]

nm