General Weather Discussion - March 2014

[LocoAko]

Would it be unusual to have a major tornado outbreak in the month of March?

A major outbreak might be unusual, but it isn't uncommon for severe weather to start ramping up here in March. There is very wide year-to-year variability, but we do average 4 tornadoes in March within western and central OK.

Our top 5 years for March tornadoes are:

1991 (17)
1959 (16)
2000 (15)
2008 (13)
2004 (12)

Monthly/Annual statistics for Tornadoes in Oklahoma (1950-Present)

[Anonymous.]

Looks like Saturday may be a chance to get some much needed moisture. However still being 3 days away, a lot can dry up...

We need rain. BADLY

[ou48A]

Ch 9 is indicating that we might have bad storms about March 21?

[venture]

Ch 9 is indicating that we might have bad storms about March 21?

It touched on this a few days ago in this thread. Potential is still there for some severe weather around the 23rd, but still too far out to get to worried. We are getting close to the time of year where there will be chances of storms and when there is, the severe risk will almost always be there too.

[bchris02]

The local stations are ready to start hyping. Last year there are a few April storms that were pretty hyped up but it didn't really get bad until May. Nonetheless, these next few months are a scary time to live in Oklahoma with the potential for storms of biblical proportion.

[Easy180]

It touched on this a few days ago in this thread. Potential is still there for some severe weather around the 23rd, but still too far out to get to worried. We are getting close to the time of year where there will be chances of storms and when there is, the severe risk will almost always be there too.

Yeah but we should have the giant walls up by then.

[venture]

The local stations are ready to start hyping. Last year there are a few April storms that were pretty hyped up but it didn't really get bad until May. Nonetheless, these next few months are a scary time to live in Oklahoma with the potential for storms of biblical proportion.

Eh, local media wants ratings in most cases. The weather has been pretty boring here lately with a couple exceptions.

[Celebrator]

The local stations are ready to start hyping. Last year there are a few April storms that were pretty hyped up but it didn't really get bad until May. Nonetheless, these next few months are a scary time to live in Oklahoma with the potential for storms of biblical proportion.

Your posts on severe weather are brimming with fear, bchris02. We all know this season is something of which to be seriously aware, but stoking fear with the words and tone you so often choose are just not helping anything. Let's be alert but not fearful. C'mon, man.

[jn1780]

The local stations are ready to start hyping. Last year there are a few April storms that were pretty hyped up but it didn't really get bad until May. Nonetheless, these next few months are a scary time to live in Oklahoma with the potential for storms of biblical proportion.

Or it could be a completely "boring" season which is not a good thing either because we need the rain.

[venture]

Your posts on severe weather are brimming with fear, bchris02. We all know this season is something of which to be seriously aware, but stoking fear with the words and tone you so often choose are just not helping anything. Let's be alert but not fearful. C'mon, man.

Exactly. The last people that should be afraid of any weather event are OKCTalk readers. We are all talking about things well in advance of anything happening.

[ljbab728]

Exactly. The last people that should be afraid of any weather event are OKCTalk readers. We are all talking about things well in advance of anything happening.

You're absolutely correct. We should be worrying about the earthquakes that are going to swallow us whole while sleeping in bed at night.

[venture]

Storm Outlook (00Z NAM / 00Z GFS)

Saturday 15th - Mostly just rain but some isolated thunder mixed in with some decent instability around. Best chance for anything severe will be south of the Red River it appears.

Thursday 20th - Rain most of the state, instability 1000-2000 j/kg just west of I-35.

Friday 21st - Slight chance of storms - central and east.

Saturday 22nd - Slight chance of storms Eastern OK.

[CuatrodeMayo]

Last spring seemed unusual in that we had a slow start and several cold snaps quite late in the spring.

What is the thinking on that happening again?

[bchris02]

Last year in March and April around every 3-4 days there would be a cold snap that would take nighttime lows into the upper 20s like a broken record. It was very unusual to have such strong cold snaps so late in the year. There was even freezing rain in the metro in mid-April and snow in NW Oklahoma in early May. So far this year the pattern seems different than that.

[catch22]

Lately, I have lost hope in "patterns".

Last year we were in a record dry spell, with all patterns indicating we would remain in one indefinitely.

Then one day it started raining, and we had the (second?) wettest year on record. The patterns changed overnight, with no warning.

[bandnerd]

I could do with a nice rainy Saturday in to start my spring break.

[Anonymous.]

The system coming through this weekend is very intense... If this had come through a couple weeks ago, it would definitely be a blizzard in most of OK.

Looks like good soaking rain for the eastern 2/3 of the state.

[s00nr1]

12Z NAM is getting a bit more interesting in terms of producing snow with the wraparound Sunday. Climatologically-speaking, this would fall in line with several previous March storm systems. March 28, 2009 is a distinct parallel (10.4" in Tulsa). Just something to keep an eye on.....

[venture]

Storm in SW OK near the Red River, to the west of Waurika, appears to be nearing marginal severe limits. Storm motion is generally east at this time.

[venture]

Hail and some strong winds appear likely around Waurika and to the east right now.

[venture]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 29
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
220 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014


THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS


* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 220 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.


* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS LIKELY WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL
EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE


THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHEAST OF BROWNWOOD TEXAS TO 55 MILES NORTHEAST OF ARDMORE
OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.


&&


DISCUSSION...TSTMS NOW FORMING/STRENGTHENING IN WRN N TX AND OVER
WRN PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY SHOULD FURTHER STRENGTHEN AND INCREASE
IN ORGANIZATION/SUSTENANCE AS ASSOCIATED W TX UPR IMPULSE ASSUMES
MORE OF A NEUTRAL TILT AND CONTINUES ENE TOWARD/ACROSS WW REGION.
AREA VWP DATA SHOW ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN LOW/MID-LVL WIND FIELD
THAT SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF SVR HAIL AND PERHAPS DMGG WIND. THE
ACTIVITY MAY MERGE INTO A SMALL MCS THAT CONTINUES MAINLY ENE INTO
NE TX/S CNTRL AND SE OK THROUGH MID-EVE.


AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 23035.

Tornadoes

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes	Low (10%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes	Low (<2%)

Wind

Probability of 10 or more severe wind events	Low (20%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots	Low (<5%)

Hail

Probability of 10 or more severe hail events	Mod (60%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches	Mod (30%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind

Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

High (90%)

[venture]

Storm outlook appears to be pretty quick. Only two real chances per the 12Z GFS as it is presented today (of course things always change)...

Friday the 21st - Far SC and SE OK and it is a very slight chance for any marginal severe stuff.

Thursday the 27th - Most of Central and Eastern OK. Instability appears it will be in place and somewhat favorable environment to get a few decent hail storms going. Wind profile would suggest some rotating updrafts, but we'll see if this even lasts the next few runs.

[venture]

Still 5 days out, but the 27th is popping back up as a potential severe day in Oklahoma. We'll see how models keep trending.

[venture]

12Z GFS maintains threat potential for Thursday. The window for severe weather though is probably going to be really short and moisture return is still a major question. The previous 4 runs are showing a similar solution to this, and really it was hinted at nearly a week ago and remains.

The setup will be a dryline moving through by early evening followed quickly by a cold front from the NW. Temps will be low to mid 70s most of the day. Surface low will go well north through KS. By early afternoon surface moisture could have dewpoints in the low to mid 50s over much of the area. GFS tries to pull some low 60s up into East Central OK, but I'm not sold on that at all...especially in March and with expanding drought conditions. Instability will peak in early evening generally near or east of I-35 - like most early Spring setups. LI values could range from -4 down to -7 in some areas east of the dryline. SBCAPE generally 1000 j/kg with some spots near 1500 j/kg in SC OK. EHI values could be pretty high in the 3 to 5 range. Wind profile will be favorable for rotating storms which could yield some decent hail reports.

Now with all that mention, the doubts rest on moisture return and cap strength. Forecast sounding has a cap around 4 or higher ahead of the dryline and the GFS limits most precip development now, unlike previous runs. So this is definitely not set in stone at all. I would probably put it well under a 10% probability right now until we get closer. In fact with the way it looks now, I would expect more chasers than hail stones on the ground on Thursday.

Just something to watch. We've had a very quiet start to the year so far, but we usually have one or two severe events in March to start kicking things off. Based on my experience down here, these are normally east of I-35 storms that move pretty darn fast to the E or NE. This could be similar as storm movements are forecast to be around 45 mph off to the east.

[Achilleslastand]

Odd how last yr we came close{?} to breaking the record for moisture in the metro and here we are several months later and badly needing moisture. I am going to start doing a rain dance hoping for a gulley washer or several of them.