General Weather Discussion - March 2014

[ultimatesooner]

perfect, those firefighters look like they want no part of that

[venture]

Ok what the crap is up with Wednesday? Some talking freezing rain

Snow for tomorrow looks pretty low. Maybe an inch for some, but the system runs out of juice when it gets to 35.

It looks like another round of snow may be possible Wednesday and another major winter storm in store for this next weekend.

Morning models keep us too warm for weekend's system. Unless some more cold air builds in, should be rain for most of us.

[Of Sound Mind]

Snow for tomorrow looks pretty low. Maybe an inch for some, but the system runs out of juice when it gets to 35.



Morning models keep us too warm for weekend's system. Unless some more cold air builds in, should be rain for most of us.

Best news I've heard all morning!

[Anonymous.]

GFS a little more bullish on snow for tomorow eve. Looks like bullseye in NW OK, showing close to 4 inches. Basically going to depend on banding.

Agree with V about this weekend's system. Looks like rain.

[Bunty]

Since today's highs have surpassed the forecasted ones, I'll take that as a good sign there won't be much frozen precip Wednesday in the OKC area. It will be all or mostly liquid. I'll be watching to see if my hunch is right.

[Easy180]

Since today's highs have surpassed the forecasted ones, I'll take that as a good sign there won't be much frozen precip Wednesday in the OKC area. It will be all or mostly liquid. I'll be watching to see if my hunch is right.

Some of the by the hours have winter precip with temps slightly above freezing so hopefully just some slush to deal with if we get any

[yukong]

I hope this is the surprise storm that dumps several inches. I love snow and cold. Yeah, I'm crazy I guess. I don't like summers and heat.

[LakeEffect]

I need my OKC Talk weather fix for today/tonight's system.

[venture]

I need my OKC Talk weather fix for today/tonight's system.

It's going to be pretty border line for here. NAM takes most moisture south, giving us a dusting to an inch. GFS has a northern path giving us a couple inches at the most. Well, that is if this will all be snow. Forecast soundings indicate a very borderline rain/snow environment where it could go either way. Surface temps will probably be above freezing so it won't stick all that well until temps fall - but at that time it might be too late.

[Of Sound Mind]

it's going to be pretty border line for here. Nam takes most moisture south, giving us a dusting to an inch. Gfs has a northern path giving us a couple inches at the most. Well, that is if this will all be snow. Forecast soundings indicate a very borderline rain/snow environment where it could go either way. Surface temps will probably be above freezing so it won't stick all that well until temps fall - but at that time it might be too late.

perfect!

[BG918]

I hope this is the surprise storm that dumps several inches. I love snow and cold. Yeah, I'm crazy I guess. I don't like summers and heat.

Then do you live somewhere else in the summer? If there's one constant with Oklahoma weather it's that it will be hot and humid during the summer, usually for several months straight.

[yukong]

I wish...but not something I can pull off at this time. Hopefully someday I will be able to afford such.

[Anonymous.]

Saturday's system is going to be another fine line between snow and rain.

NAM has it as snow and puts up to 5-8" just north of I44 corridor.

GFS keeps rain.

[Bunty]

Hydrologic Outlook:

Updated: Fri Mar-07-14 01:24pm CST
Effective: Fri Mar-07-14 01:24pm CST
Expires: Fri Mar-07-14 06:00am CST

Severity: Unknown
Urgency: Future
Certainty: Possible

Status: Actual
Type: Alert
Category: Met
Areas affected: Alfalfa; Atoka; Beckham; Blaine; Bryan; Caddo; Canadian; Carter; Cleveland; Coal; Comanche; Cotton; Custer; Dewey; Ellis; Garfield; Garvin; Grady; Grant; Greer; Harmon; Harper; Hughes; Jackson; Jefferson; Johnston; Kay; Kingfisher; Kiowa; Lincoln; Logan; Love; Major; Marshall; McClain; Murray; Noble; Oklahoma; Payne; Pontotoc; Pottawatomie; Roger Mills; Seminole; Stephens; Tillman; Was hita; Woods; Woodward

Message summary: ...spring flood outlook...

The potential for flood conditions in western/central oklahoma and western north texas will be below normal this spring. Flooding in the region usually occurs in response to specific precipitation events. Many current hydrologic indicators reflect the long-term drought that has gripped the southern plains for several years. Precipitation totals for the last 90 days are well below normal across most of western/central oklahoma and western north texas. Most of the region has received around 25 to 50 percent of average precipitation since the beginning of december. Areas in the west central part of the oklahoma along the texas border have received less than 25 percent of average. The climate prediction center /cpc/ outlook for the spring /mar-apr- may/ calls for equal chances of above-normal... Below-normal... And near-normal temperatures and precipitation across oklahoma and western north texas. According to the cpc... Soil moisture across western/central oklahoma and western north texas is currently reflecting the long term drought conditions that have dominated the region. Most of the area is between the 10th and 30th percentiles of historical conditions... Although a small area in southwestern oklahoma and western north texas is experiencing less than the 10th percentile of historical conditions. According to the u.s. Geological survey... Streams and rivers are running at normal levels in central oklahoma... With below-normal levels occurring across western oklahoma and western north texas. The red river is experiencing extremely low flows that are below the 10th percentile of long term data for this time of year. The rivers in central oklahoma are approximating more normal streamflows for this time of year. Reservoir storage in oklahoma and western north texas is well below conservation storage according to the u.s. Army corps of engineers. In the aggregate...the reservoirs in the arkansas river basin have 104 percent of their flood control storage available at this time while reservoirs in the red river basin have 117 percent of their flood control. Some reservoirs in western north texas have 170-175 percent of their designed flood control storage available. The u.s. Drought monitor of march 4th indicates that most areas in western oklahoma and western north texas are experiencing severe to exceptional drought conditions. Exceptional drought conditions were affecting portions of harmon...jackson...and tillman counties in southwestern oklahoma. Exceptional drought conditions were also occurring in wichita...wilbarger...foard...archer...and clay counties in western north texas. Abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions were occurring across the remainder of the region. The cpc u.s. Seasonal drought outlook of february 20th indicates that drought conditions will persist or intensify in western oklahoma and western north texas over the next 3 months.

[Anonymous.]

New NAM further north with snow track for Saturday. But it is heavier on amounts. Showing 10+ inches of wet snow in NW-NC OK.

[woodyrr]

If you use the mPING app to report precipitation conditions, today, Friday, March 7 is test day.

They would like to get an idea of the coverage of this crowd sourced data.

Information about the test:

Mesonet | mPING Test Day

Information about the mPING project and the mPING smartphone app:

mPING Project

[OKCisOK4me]

I downloaded. WTH, I'll need something to do in the morning when I wake up for no reason.

[Anonymous.]

NAM puts heaviest (8")just along OK/KS border favoring SE KS.

GFS latching onto idea of it being cold enough for some snow, puts trace to 1" generally N 1/3 of OK.

WRF puts general 3-5" with heaviest favoring northern edge of N 1/2 of OK.

GEM is similar to GFS.

[ou48A]

This will be great for the OK / KS wheat crop.

[Achilleslastand]

I was going to lay down some pre-emergent this afternoon, what and how much moisture is forecasted for the metro?

[venture]

Maybe a tenth or 0.2" at the most right now.

[venture]

Winter Wx Adv for the far NW counties...

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
242 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014


OKZ004>007-009-010-080845-
/O.NEW.KOUN.WW.Y.0011.140308T0400Z-140309T0000Z/
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-ELLIS-WOODWARD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...ALVA...CHEROKEE...MEDFORD...
ARNETT...WOODWARD
242 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014


...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
6 PM CST SATURDAY...


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10
PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY.


* TIMING: BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND ENDING EARLY TOMORROW
EVENING.


* MAIN IMPACT: SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES.


* OTHER IMPACTS: BLOWING SNOW MAY RESULT IN REDUCED VISIBILITIES.




PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


BE CAREFUL IF YOU HAVE TO TRAVEL. EVEN SMALL AMOUNTS OF ICE AND
SNOW CAN MAKE ROADS AND SIDEWALKS SLICK AND DANGEROUS.

[jn1780]

Hopefully, I'm not being premature, but I do believe winter is pretty much done with except for a few moderate cold snaps.

[venture]

Hopefully, I'm not being premature, but I do believe winter is pretty much done with except for a few moderate cold snaps.

Maybe a couple possible brushes with winter coming up. However GFS seems to be hinting at severe weather season getting ready to slowly start up around the 23rd. Still early though to worry about that. We have some fire weather days to get through this week.

[bchris02]

Maybe a couple possible brushes with winter coming up. However GFS seems to be hinting at severe weather season getting ready to slowly start up around the 23rd. Still early though to worry about that. We have some fire weather days to get through this week.

Would it be unusual to have a major tornado outbreak in the month of March?