General Weather Discussion - February 2014

[venture]

Geez, that's harsh. He's actually a really nice guy. He came to my school and spoke with my news staff for a podcast about this winter's weather and was very knowledgable. But I know it's the norm to bash the local mets here

Anxious to see how much school we miss this week. Contest season for me.

Now now...we don't always bash them. Make fun of sparkle ties and some antics, but bash? I try to avoid criticizing too much because you never know who is lurking and reading these forums. :-P

[Anonymous.]

I would bet on at least one of the local mets/personalities reading this thread, and perhaps participating at times... lol

Looks like moisture echos coming up on radar streaming out of NW TX and into WC and SW OK. This could be the beginning of a stream of freezing drizzle coming across the state tonight well ahead of the potential snow.

[zookeeper]

So....what do the above maps and models mean for conditions in the metro this time tomorrow?

[educator1953]

So, Duncan will be missed by this stuff tomorrow? I sure hope so.

[OKCisOK4me]

They've been talking about it.

I. Know. That. I'm talking about them constantly updating here which is great because who wants to wait til 5PM for Damon Lane? lol

[LakeEffect]

I would bet on at least one of the local mets/personalities reading this thread, and perhaps participating at times... lol

Looks like moisture echos coming up on radar streaming out of NW TX and into WC and SW OK. This could be the beginning of a stream of freezing drizzle coming across the state tonight well ahead of the potential snow.

I believe one of the Chiefs participates on here - he's an airplane buff along with his meteorology. He's my favorite amongst them all, notwithstanding out mutual appreciate of all things flight.

[venture]

So....what do the above maps and models mean for conditions in the metro this time tomorrow?

Maps being posted are snowfall predictions for the specific model. Each varies a bit but overall aren't that much different from one another.

[OKCisOK4me]

I believe one of the Chiefs participates on here - he's an airplane buff along with his meteorology. He's my favorite amongst them all, notwithstanding out mutual appreciate of all things flight.

Surely not. The hours he posts on here don't mesh very well if you think he's certainly a chief meteorologist.

[PennyQuilts]

Doubt it means a thing but it feels like ice and snow coming to my place (SW ok county).

[bandnerd]

Now now...we don't always bash them. Make fun of sparkle ties and some antics, but bash? I try to avoid criticizing too much because you never know who is lurking and reading these forums. :-P

Well, you're opening yourself up to criticism when you wear a sparkly tie on TV

[venture]

If anyone was following the chat room for the twitter feeds, please refresh the page. The previous chat had something like 25,000 tweets and comments in it that I felt it was time to refresh. I mean, it's only been since October? I'll be lurking and jumping in every now and then.

[LocoAko]

NAM seems to have gone off the deep end (though the SREF mean remains constant at 2-3" for the metro), but both the GFS and HRRR seem to be suggesting a scenario with one swath of higher totals in NW OKand another from EC OK and northeast. Of course this is the difference of an inch or two, so I'm probably splitting hairs here...

[Anonymous.]

Freezing drizzle developing in SW OK, this will spread north and east as energy approaches out of west.

[venture]

FYI Winter Wx Advisory was extended further south again about an hour ago.

[Anonymous.]

Snow developing from west of Enid down towards Clinton. Freezing drizzle moving up from SW OK.

Things should get cranking in the next 2 hours with all precip. types kind of banding across the state. As the low approaches late morning, a more solid period of precip. will occur.

[Anonymous.]

Upon quick radar observations. It looks like main storm is tracking in more of a northerly fashion than forecast. This could lower amounts on southern end and increase dry slot death charge.

[Anonymous.]

New WRF really puts this thing on tilt and dry slots the entire southeastern half of OK. Kind of splitting it down I-44. This does drag heavier amounts deeper into West-Central OK though, due to deformation zone on backside.

[Anonymous.]

The freezing drizzle and wintry mix coming up from SW OK is slowly evolving and intensifying as it spreads along I-44. Approaching metro in next couple hours. This could put a glaze on everything and be nightmare in morning. If temps stay where they are, it won't be nearly as bad. But if we drop to upper 20s, could be an interesting morning commute.

[venture]

Sleet reports coming in now up by Watonga. Precip continues to increase in coverage.

[venture]

Winter Wx Advisory expanded for parts of SW OK.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
128 AM CST TUE FEB 4 2014


OKZ037-044-TXZ084>089-041500-
/O.EXB.KOUN.WW.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-140204T1500Z/
TILLMAN-COTTON-FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FREDERICK...WALTERS...CROWELL...
VERNON...WICHITA FALLS...MUNDAY...KNOX CITY...SEYMOUR...
ARCHER CITY...HOLLIDAY...LAKESIDE CITY
128 AM CST TUE FEB 4 2014


...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS
MORNING...


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING.


* MAIN IMPACT: THE DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD RESULT IN A LIGHT
GLAZING OF ICE RESULTING IN SLICK SPOTS ON ROADWAYS.


* OTHER IMPACTS: ROADS MAY BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. MOTORISTS
SHOULD USE EXTRA CAUTION...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE ARBUCKLE
MOUNTAINS.

[venture]

Quick radar update...

Band of heavier precip starting to get established just to the NW of the city and over the NW metro area. A secondary area of light precip showing signs of increasing some is over SC OK. Things are still moving around a bit, so we'll need to see how all this gets established. Yellow line is the freezing line so any drizzle or light rain ahead of it won't be freezing for a bit longer.

[venture]

06Z HRRR keeps most of the significant snow well to the NW. If this verifies, snow amounts won't even meet warning criteria in all but maybe 3 counties. So we'll see what happens.

[sacolton]

Yup. All the action will happen north of the metro. No "winter storm" today.

[Anonymous.]

NW. OK is getting dry slotted like crazy. Pocket of dry air stuck in there. May see it lose out by morning as the low drags the wrap around through WC OK. But huge bust for them so far.

This batch of precip intensifying over SW-C OK is to keep an eye on.

[Anonymous.]

This rain in C OK should bring temps back towards freezing mark. Warm rain falling quickly into cold air at surface.

The wrap around snow in TX PH is getting organized now. This is the last shot for snow. If it moves more east, snow in morning. If it keeps chugging NNE, it will clip extreme NW OK and that was our storm.