General Weather Discussion - February 2014

[venture]

Here you go Anon



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0052
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 AM CST SUN FEB 02 2014


AREAS AFFECTED...NW TX...OK


CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION


VALID 020948Z - 021345Z


SUMMARY...HEAVY BANDS OF SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS NW TX
AND DEVELOP ENEWD ACROSS SW AND CNTRL OK OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS.
A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL DEVELOP ENEWD ACROSS THE LOW
ROLLING PLAINS NEWD INTO SCNTRL OK. PRECIPITATION SHOULD RANGE FROM
0.10 TO 0.20 INCHES PER HOUR ACROSS THE MCD AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.


DISCUSSION...THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PLUME OF
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM WEST TX NEWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SRN PLAINS. THE PRECIPITATION BANDS IN NORTHWEST TX ARE CURRENTLY
LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF A BOUNDARY AT 850 MB...AHEAD OF A
LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND JUST SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL JET
LOCATED ACROSS NRN OK AND THE NRN TX PANHANDLE. AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER WEST TX CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE SRN PLAINS...THE
HEAVIER BANDS OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE ENEWD ACROSS NORTH TX AND
SCNTRL OK EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF SNOWFALL WITH
RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR...SHOULD BE LOCATED IN A 50 STATUTE
MILE WIDE ZONE CENTERED FROM CHILDRESS TX ENEWD TO THE SRN PART OF
THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO.


SOUTH OF THAT CORRIDOR FROM EAST OF LUBBOCK TX NEWD TO AROUND
ARDMORE OK...SFC TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY JUST BELOW FREEZING. IN SPITE
OF THE SUB-FREEZING AIR AT THE SFC...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A
WARM LAYER EXISTS BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB. THE WARM LAYER SHOULD KEEP
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. PRECIPITATION
RATES COULD BE IN THE 0.10 TO 0.20 INCHES PER HOUR
RANGE...ESPECIALLY WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION.


..BROYLES.. 02/02/2014




ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...M AF...

[Anonymous.]

Nice. Okay I see snowflakes - now I can go to bed. lol

I am going to mobile posting now. Let it snow!

[OKCisOK4me]

It's finally flurrying here in NW OKC.

[educator1953]

We had sleet here in Duncan earlier this morning. Now we are having a beautiful snowfall. It's fairly heavy. It's sticking and the ground is already covered.

[BoulderSooner]

Just now started snowing down town.

[ou48A]

Heavy snow in NW Norman with about ½ inch acumulation so far.
Visibility is about 1/8 of a mile.

[yukong]

Streets and roads covered here just south of Piedmont and it's coming down pretty good.

[Easy180]

Best news of all is it is pure snow... I just took my snow shovel to a section of my driveway and zero ice underneath

[Anonymous.]

Wrapping up quickly now as storm system is moving east quickly.

[venture]

Looks like we'll end up with about 4 inches here in SE Norman.

[Anonymous.]

Advisories being issued for the next storm. Most of KS and now NW OK under WSWatches.

[kbsooner]

Advisories being issued for the next storm. Most of KS and now NW OK under WSWatches.

So will Central OK be out of this one?

[venture]

So will Central OK be out of this one?

No. Should still get a couple inches of snow, just heavier to the NW. This will be pretty much the reverse of what we just saw. The south metro may get an inch or less and 2-3 inches NW metro.

[coov23]

So will Central OK be out of this one?

Nope. Probably worse than today's winter weather. It's gonna be a rough, cold week here.

[Easy180]

No. Should still get a couple inches of snow, just heavier to the NW. This will be pretty much the reverse of what we just saw. The south metro may get an inch or less and 2-3 inches NW metro.

Mother Nature balancing out the snow totals...Nicely done

[Bellaboo]

Any snow from Edmond to Guthrie today ?

[bradh]

so for the metro, are we talking about Tuesday, or Thurs/Fri for the next snow dump?

[blangtang]

Have they cancelled school yet?

I heard there was a new rule that if its below 10°, school is off.

[Dustin]

Wow. This storm was very accurately predicted! That never happens!

[venture]

so for the metro, are we talking about Tuesday, or Thurs/Fri for the next snow dump?

One storm at a time. My comment is for Tuesday.

[Celebrator]

Any snow from Edmond to Guthrie today ?

About a 1/2" to an inch I'd say at my place.

[bandnerd]

My neighborhood street on the NW side is quite clear and the sun is out.

[Anonymous.]

We will get 'clearer' data on the Tuesday storm in a couple hours. But right now NAM is dry slotting most of OK with this one, and dips barely 1-2 inches of snow on OKC. 5+ inches of snow as you head north of Stillwater and back towards Woodward. This is probably the furthest south it has shown the heavier totals so far.


Now that last night's storm has fully moved away, models should have a good feel on this next one tonight and tomorrow morning.

[ou48A]

I have heard some talk that the late week system could have lot of energy and could be very significant.....
Any thoughts yet on it's general track....... Like Kansas or Texas?
Thanks

[venture]

Long day today, so I'll try to hit on as much as I can before passing out.

Storm #1 - This was Sunday's snow and is done.

Storm #2 - Tuesday ending Midnight Wednesday Early
Storm moves out of the NM/CO area and starts to kick off precip from KS down through TX on Tuesday morning. Appears there will be some axis near/north of the Metro area. The dryslot, which has been advertised for awhile, will come in just south of this area and punch NE with the storm. The NAM really want to pull some warm up up into Southern OK and suggests temps near 50 along the Red River. GFS suggests something similar, but is 10 degrees colder in its setup. If the GFS is handling temps right, we won't be above freezing for until the 11th or 12th of the month. Generally looking at 1" around Norman, 2-3" OKC, 3-4" Guthrie, and then 5-8" from there to the KS border per NAM. GFS is a bit higher on the south end and extends the 1" area deeper into Southern OK. GEM agrees with the GFS for the most part.

Storm #3 - Thursday through Friday AM
Moves in from the West, spreads snow early in the day over WC OK. By 6AM looking at 1-2" in most areas out there. Through 6PM looks like a general 1-2" over much of the state outside of NE and SE OK. Overnight Thursday through 6AM Friday a general swath of 1-2" for much of NW, NC, and NE OK. Metro impacts look like a general 2-4" right now.

Storm #4 - Saturday
Light snow moves into NW OK early, about an inch by 6AM. Heavy snow picks up over much of NW OK with an additional 5-8" up there. Generally 1-3" for NE to Central to SW OK. Still a long way out, so I'm not going to dwell on this too much.

Storm #5? - Tuesday the 11th
This is pretty fuzzy still, but maybe a storm forming up near up, but right now main impacts may be just east of us.