General Weather Discussion - February 2014

[s00nr1]

[s00nr1]

Of course.... I leave OKC to attend a weather conference (AMS) in Atlanta and am going to miss this.

[SoonerDave]

Looks like these late runs have a lot of mets scrambling some...I'm reading a lot #okwx tweets with murmuring and speculation that this whole thing ice/snow wise may affect the OKC area a lot more than had been previously thought.

Tomorrow morning may be a lot more interesting than anyone would have bet even 12 hours ago. Gotta love OK weather.

[s00nr1]

Just think back to how many times OKC looked to be in the bullseye and then a storm system shifted 50-100 miles north leaving the metro high and dry. Same is happening now except this time the shift puts the metro right in the crosshairs.

[PennyQuilts]

Filled up the propane tank and made our grocery store run early this morning. We have lots of birdseed for my bird friends and fresh chili waiting to be et. We're ready.

[sacolton]

Don't want to sound like Mike Morgan, but WE AREN'T GOING TO SURVIVE THIS!!!

[s00nr1]

22Z HRRR slightly further south:

[venture]

Quick note to those viewing these HRRR models, they are 15 hour forecasts. So the latest one S00nr just posted ends at 13Z tomorrow, which is 7AM.

[SoonerDave]

At this point, these things are so close together they're almost certainly within each model's own margin for error....you kind of reach a level at which you say, "hey, there's s decent chance this region is going to get something," and have to let it just play out. If people start looking for whether it hits north or south of SW 149th or east/west of May are looking for a level of resolution that just isn't there.

Bread and milk are all set at our venue

[s00nr1]

Here's a projected radar reflectivity map for that same time:

[venture]

At this point, these things are so close together they're almost certainly within each model's own margin for error....you kind of reach a level at which you say, "hey, there's s decent chance this region is going to get something," and have to let it just play out. If people start looking for whether it hits north or south of SW 149th or east/west of May are looking for a level of resolution that just isn't there.

Bread and milk are all set at our venue

But but but...are the weather people suppose to say exactly how much will fall at NW 50th and Penn or Air Depot near I-40 in MWC?

[Mel]

I am not fond of ice but I will take any moisture Mother Nature will give up. Tired of smelling burning grass everywhere. Venture, your wx that is in print reminds me of the notams I had to read off back in the day.

[Andrew4OU]

Oh, HOW EXCITING if this verifies! I'm in Altus this weekend visiting the parents. Looks like we could get quite a bit here.

[s00nr1]

21Z SREF plumes are out:

NCEP SREF Plume Viewer

[venture]

NWS Norman has increase snowfall amounts.

[venture]

I would imagine if the 00Z models stick with the northern solution, we'll see the warnings extended another row of counties north.

[venture]

00Z NAM...

By 6AM... Norman - 1", OKC - Trace
6AM-9AM... Norman - 2-4", OKC - 1-3"
9AM-12PM... Norman/OKC - 1-3", NW Metro < 1"
After 12PM... Light snow south, ended North. Additional snow continues over southern OK.
Totals... Norman 4-8", OKC - 2-6" - Lower amounts North, higher amounts south.

[SoonerDave]

Saw this and thought it was too funny not to post:

WE ARE AT DEFBRAUMS 1

[venture]

No real change on the 00Z HRRR run. A band of up to 6 inches is going to line up somewhere just south of I-44 it seems. It has a bit more reasonable amounts in SW OK which highest up in the 8-12" range...instead of the 18" area.

[Anonymous.]

Updated advisories for northern trend:




Looks like models holding steady at south of I-44 corridor being the money spot.

[venture]

The Winter Storm Warning text for the Southern Metro counties...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR SNOW AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST
SUNDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.


* TIMING: SLEET IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SHORTLY BEFORE OR AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE
SLEET IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY TRANSITION TO SNOW AND BE HEAVY AT
TIMES. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL BETWEEN 6 AM AND
3 PM.


* MAIN IMPACT: AVERAGE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE. SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ARE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY.

[venture]

00Z GFS snowfall timeline...

Through 6AM... Trace
6AM to 9AM... 1-3" Metro wide
9AM to 12PM... 1" or less NW Metro, 2-3" S and SE Metro
12PM to 3PM... Trace NW of I-44, 1-2" Norman to Shawnee
3PM to 6PM... Trace southeast of Norman/Shawnee

Totals... NW Metro 1-3", Central Metro 2-4", South Metro/Norman 4-8"

[Anonymous.]

RAP is off by 20+ miles in precip. placement in W TX right now. Not sure if this will evolve to overall north trend, but the precip. out there now is 20-30 miles further north than forecast.

[s00nr1]

Updated graphic from the NWS:

[venture]

Latest HRRR shows the gradient really well...

Norman 4-6"+...Moore 2-3"...NW OKC 1-2"...