Severe Weather Outlook - Sat 7/25 - Sat 8/1

[venture]

Isolated chances next couple days until stronger system moves in early-mid week. Currently boundary moving into Central OK which some developing CU along it. There is a chance for a storms to develop later this afternoon along this which might get close to severe levels with either strong winds or marginally severe hail.

[venture]

Developing storm now in NW Oklahoma County and far SW Logan County. Main area centered at Waterloo & Highway 74. Movement will be SE should it continue to develop.

Update: 418PM - updraft failed to get established and fell apart. Add'l development remains possible through the afternoon/evening along the boundary.

[Thunder]

Storms exploding and moving thru the metro again early morning hours. Twice in a row. Just saw a flash, so checked the radar. Nice storms.

[venture]

Increase chances for severe weather this week. Today (Tuesday) mostly Western Oklahoma. Wednesday...umm will SPC basically just circled the entire state. LOL

Outlooks below are the first ones issues on Tuesday...so they'll be updated in later periods.

Tuesday



...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE
ROCKIES/ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS TODAY/TONIGHT...CHIEFLY A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CROSSING WY EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT. TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND
INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...INITIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST
WY/EASTERN CO INTO NORTHEAST NM...AND PERHAPS ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS GIVEN A
MOIST/WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS. A SLIGHT SOUTHWESTWARD SHIFT OF
STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN 30-40 KT OF MID LEVEL WINDS
AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL NM BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH VEERING WIND PROFILES OTHERWISE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS/ORGANIZED MULTICELLS. SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO
OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON. WITH
TIME...UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
MOVING/ORGANIZED QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS SEEMS LIKELY BY
EARLY EVENING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A BROADER DAMAGING WIND THREAT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

Wednesday...


...SRN PLAINS AND CNTRL PLAINS/OZARKS...
A POSITIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY WILL DIG SEWD INTO THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD INTO THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SELY SFC
WINDS SHOULD EXIST HELPING TO REINFORCE A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS LIKELY IN THE LOWER 70S F ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN
PLAINS. THE MODELS ARE NOW IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT FOR WEDNESDAY
DEVELOPING A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY FROM THE
TX AND OK PANHANDLES ESEWD ACROSS OK INTO THE SRN OZARKS. ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY BE ONGOING DURING THE MORNING NEAR THE
COLD FRONT IN THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS OR IN THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WHERE
A LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED.

ALTHOUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY CONCERNING THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ONE PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO WOULD BE
FOR INITIATION OF SFC-BASED CONVECTION TO OCCUR ALONG THE NWRN EDGE
OF THE STRONGER INSTABILITY BY LATE AFTERNOON IN SERN CO...SW KS OR
THE OK/TX PANHANDLES WITH AN MCS ORGANIZING AND MOVING ESEWD ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS
WHICH STRENGTHEN A WELL-DEFINED 30-40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE
SRN PLAINS BY EARLY EVENING. SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND
INCREASING FLOW ALOFT SHOULD CREATE MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS AND
POSSIBLY SOME SUPERCELLS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION SHOW
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. AN
INCREASING WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD ALSO EXIST IF AN MCS CAN BECOME
WELL-DEVELOPED AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. AN UPGRADE IN SEVERE
PROBABILITIES MAY BE NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION ONCE MODEL
SOLUTIONS BECOME IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND CERTAINTY INCREASES.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG
THE COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN NEB INTO NRN KS.
MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON WHEN INSTABILITY IN THIS REGION SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED.

[venture]

Storms Continue to develop mainly in Northern Oklahoma...

Slight Risk for Today:



...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...

AS OF 18Z...PRIMARY COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM S OF MKC SWWD TO ICT TO
LBL TO TAD. DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO
LOW/MID 60S AND ERN EDGE OF STEEPER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE
CONTRIBUTED TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE OF
1500-2500 J/KG. COMBINATION OF FRONTAL FORCING AND GLANCING
INFLUENCE OF MIDLEVEL IMPULSE OVER NEB/KS ARE RESULTING IN SCATTERED
TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN CO/NERN NM.

CURRENT TUCUMCARI NM PROFILER INDICATES THAT A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING
OF WINDS HAS OCCURRED TODAY ABOVE 5-6 KM...RESULTING IN 40-50 KT OF
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE PLAINS OF SERN CO/NERN NM. AS
SUCH...SETUP WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED STORMS
/INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/ WITH THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. MORE DISCRETE STORMS WILL
LIKELY CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS TONIGHT WITH A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS WRN PARTS OF TX
AND OK.

ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FARTHER E ALONG OR
IN IMMEDIATE WAKE OF FRONT INTO S-CNTRL KS/N-CNTRL OK. SEE MCD 1702
FOR ADDITIONAL NEAR TERM GUIDANCE.

Outlook for Wednesday...



...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

COMPLEX FORECAST EXISTS WED/WED NIGHT OWING TO POTENTIAL FOR
EPISODIC STRONG/SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT FOCUSED ALONG BOTH SYNOPTIC
AND MESOSCALE SURFACE BOUNDARIES PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION. IT
APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST OVER THE
CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS FROM COLD FRONT SEWD ALONG WRN EXTENSION OF
STATIONARY BOUNDARY WED AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT. HERE...BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO LOW/MID 60S WILL COMBINE WITH ERN EXTENSION
OF EML/STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DAYTIME HEATING TO YIELD A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 1500-2500
J/KG.

FRONTAL ASCENT...OROGRAPHIC FORCING AND INCREASED HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH MIDLEVEL TROUGH ALL WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE
IN TSTM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE
FROM ERN CO/WRN KS SWD/SEWD THROUGH NERN NM...THE TX/OK PNHDLS INTO
WRN OK. MID/HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE FORECAST TO BACK/INCREASE
WITH APPROACH OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH VERTICAL SHEAR BECOMING
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. SOME THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL EXIST WITH ANY SUPERCELLS
INTERACTING WITH QUASI-STATIONARY SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY OR ANY
PRE-EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

EXPECT A GRADUAL UPSCALE GROWTH OF STORMS INTO ONE OR MULTIPLE MCS/S
WED NIGHT WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL
CONTINUING THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

[venture]

Mesoscale discussion 1702
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0314 pm cdt tue jul 28 2009

areas affected...srn ks/nrn ok

concerning...severe potential...watch likely

valid 282014z - 282115z

ww will likely be needed for parts of south central ks into nrn ok where moderate instability and recent increase in effective bulk shear /30-35 kt/ suggests potential for storms to become severe.

Regional radars indicated tstms increasing in coverage/intensity from central/srn ks enewd through central mo in the vicinity of a surface boundary across these states. An additional storm or two were developing across nrn ok. The weakening of surface based cinh during peak heating and forcing for ascent attendant to a short wave trough moving through ern ks into the lower mo valley will support additional storm development. 15z namkf suggested strongest effective bulk shear for storm organization should remain across srn ks/nrn ok with potential for activity to produce hail and strong wind gusts.

Farther e into mo...weak deep layer shear will tend to limit storm organization...but locally strong wind gusts and marginally severe hail will be possible into the early evening given the degree of available instability.

..peters.. 07/28/2009

[venture]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 632
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
330 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS
PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 330 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

SCATTERED LARGE HAIL TO 2.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER
WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
ENID OKLAHOMA TO 35 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF WICHITA KANSAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 631...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY ALONG
AND AHEAD OF FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL KS. WITH 30-55 KT OF SHEAR
COUPLED WITH MLCAPES AOA 2000 J/KG...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY WITH PRIMARY THREAT LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 31025.

[venture]

Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
422 pm cdt tue jul 28 2009

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Northeastern kingfisher county in central oklahoma...
Western logan county in central oklahoma...

* until 515 pm cdt

* at 422 pm cdt...national weather service doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm 4 miles southwest of marshall...moving
southeast at 15 mph.

Hazards in the warning include...
Hail up to the size of golf balls...
Wind gusts to 65 mph...

* locations in the warning include cedar valley...cimarron city...
Crescent...guthrie...lovell...marshall and navina.

[Bunty]

Yep, once again another storm is bypassing Stillwater and aiming at Gutherie, Edmond, and some of OKC, instead. At least there's no black in it.

[venture]

Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
532 pm cdt tue jul 28 2009

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Extreme northeastern canadian county in central oklahoma...
Extreme southeastern kingfisher county in central oklahoma...
Southwestern logan county in central oklahoma...
Oklahoma county in central oklahoma...

* until 630 pm cdt

* at 530 pm cdt...national weather service doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm extending from just south of cashion to the
deer creek area of northwestern oklahoma county...moving
southeast at 10 mph.

Hazards in the warning include...
Hail larger than quarters...
Wind gusts to 60 mph...

* locations in the warning include arcadia...cashion...del city...
Edmond...forest park...lake aluma...nichols hills...northeastern
oklahoma city...spencer and the village.

[Thunder]

Impressive light show.

[venture]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2009

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
TO ARKLATEX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
TO SOUTHERN NY/PORTIONS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

...SYNOPSIS...
MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH/EXTENSIVE CYCLONIC LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN
WILL PERSIST OVER THE CONUS THROUGH TONIGHT. WITHIN THIS
REGIME...LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY VICINITY
EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND INCREASINGLY
PHASE WITH A STRONGER IMPULSE OVERSPREADING EASTERN ONTARIO TO
NORTHERN QUEBEC. MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL REINFORCE THE BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY
SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT
LAKES...WHILE BEING CONVECTIVELY MODIFIED/REMAINING QUASI-STATIONARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX IN ADVANCE OF A
SECONDARY/REINFORCING FRONT SPREADING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...A BROAD EXTENT OF AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS AGAIN EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRONT
RANGE/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE NORTHEAST STATES.

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO ARKLATEX/LOWER MS VALLEY...
SCATTERED TSTMS/SOME MODESTLY ORGANIZED CLUSTERS WILL BE ONGOING
THIS MORNING ACROSS WEST/NORTH TX AND PORTIONS OF OK TO THE
ARKLATEX. CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION AND NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS
COMPLICATE THE DAYTIME DETAILS...BUT EVEN MODEST HEATING SHOULD
RESULT IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE/WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS BY AFTERNOON
GIVEN THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE /14-18 G PER KG MEAN MIXING RATIOS/
THAT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX. AIDED
BY A CONVECTIVELY DISTURBED MID LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN OK/NORTH TX TO THE ARKLATEX DURING
THE DAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS /MAINLY MULTICELLULAR/ SHOULD
BECOME INCREASINGLY COMMON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL MAINLY THROUGH AROUND SUNSET.

FARTHER WEST...SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...TSTMS SHOULD AGAIN INITIALLY
DEVELOP/INCREASE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN/FRONT RANGE OF SOUTHEAST
CO/NORTHEAST NM DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS...AIDED BY NORTHERN
PLAINS HEIGHT FALLS AND THE APPROACH OF A MID LEVEL
PERTURBATION/SPEED MAXIMA EMBEDDED WITHIN MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH SUNSET. WITH
TIME...UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO ONE OR MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
MOVING MCS/S SEEMS PROBABLE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS TO
INCREASE ACCORDINGLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF OK/TX PANHANDLES AND NORTHWEST TX/PERHAPS WESTERN OK.

[westsidesooner]

It looks like the NWS and SPC have moved their target for any MCS's this evening a little further south and west over extreme western Ok and the panhandles. Only one model that I can see still puts central Ok in the mix tonight. Whats your thoughts Venture?

[Thunder]

Nasty outflow boundaries everywhere.

[venture]

Yeah models are definitely split on what happens today. Looks like NSSL WRF and the GFS are maintaining an MCS moving across the body of Oklahoma. While the majority of the others keep everything out west in the panhandles or at the most SW Oklahoma. We'll see what happens. I think we'll get the typical daytime development today with the boundaries around from yesterday's storms...and who knows, maybe the MCS will track more east than expected. Granted that usually never happens though. LOL

[amandagall5]

Do you know what the wind speeds were last night in the Midwest City area?

[Thunder]

Around 50mph? Quite a bit of customers lost power in Edmond and MWC.

[venture]

Preliminary local storm report
national weather service norman ok
931 pm cdt tue jul 28 2009

..time... ...event... ...city location... ...lat.lon...
..date... ....mag.... ..county location..st.. ...source....
..remarks..

0921 pm tstm wnd gst tinker air force base 35.42n 97.39w
07/28/2009 m59 mph oklahoma ok asos

[westsidesooner]

Heres a couple of pics I took as the first round of storms came through between 5:30 and 6 pm.. They are all of the back (westside) of the storm that formed near deer creek then moved southeast before dieing over OKC. The last two were taken while quarter size hail was being reported 3 miles nw of the village. On the way home I saw what appeared to be a downburst over central okc but didnt have a good line of sight or my camera ready. Again.

http://cmd.shutterfly.com/commands/p...icks&album=458

[venture]

SPC has downgraded all of Oklahoma except for the western portion.



...LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO LOWER MS VALLEY...

SEVERE PROBABILITIES AND ASSOCIATED CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK HAVE
BEEN DOWNGRADED.

CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND LINGERING TSTM ACTIVITY HAS LIMITED
DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION FROM ERN OK
INTO AR. FARTHER S OVER CNTRL/ERN TX INTO LA...BOUNDARY LAYER HAS
WARMED THROUGH THE 80S AND WHEN COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS OF 70-75
F...ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF
1500-2500 J/KG. THE PRESENCE OF NUMEROUS MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES AND
EWD MIGRATION OF MCV/VORTICITY MAXIMUM FROM CNTRL TX SHOULD SUPPORT
A CONTINUED INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...INSPECTION OF AREA VWP AND PROFILER DATA
INDICATES THAT AMBIENT WIND FIELDS REMAIN RATHER WEAK WHICH WILL
TEND TO LIMIT THE DEGREE OF STORM ORGANIZATION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT. NONETHELESS...ISOLATED WIND/HAIL
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE STORMS.

OVERNIGHT...SWLY LLJ IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE ARKLATEX
WHICH WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. CLUSTERS OF TSTMS WILL
LIKELY BE MAINTAINED OVER THIS AREA WITHIN MOIST AIR MASS...DRIVEN
LARGELY BY THE INTENSIFYING WAA. WHILE SOME STORM ROTATION IS
POSSIBLE...THE PRESENCE OF POOR LAPSE RATES AND CONTINUED WEAK
MID/UPPER-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL PRECLUDE A MORE ROBUST SEVERE
THREAT.

[venture]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 637
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
900 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 900 PM
UNTIL 300 AM CDT.

WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
WIDELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL TO 2.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES EAST OF
CHANDLER OKLAHOMA TO 45 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF CLINTON OKLAHOMA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 635...WW 636...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN NUMBER AND
INTENSITY ACROSS THE WATCH AREA AS AIR MASS MDTLY UNSTABLE WITH
LITTLE REMAINING CINH. WITH 30-35KT OF SHEAR AND STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES LARGE HAIL AND LOCAL DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE THREAT.
MORE ORGANIZED/DEVELOPING MCS TX PANHANDLE WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN AS
IT MOVES E/SEWD INTO SWRN OK/NWRN TX.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29020.

[Karried]

Last night, the thunder was so loud, it set off all of the house alarms!

I'm getting a new roof because of the last hail storm.... our entire neighborhood is covered in Roofing company signs. Our roof was totaled.. great. I'm sure our rates will go up to offset the 'disaster'.

This weather is crazy!

[venture]

Welcome to Oklahoma. lol

[Thunder]

WSS, those are awesome!

Impressive light show, seeing dangerous and odd-looking lightnings.

[Thunder]

...and who knows, maybe the MCS will track more east than expected. Granted that usually never happens though. LOL