General Weather Discussion - May 2019

[SoonerDave]

The MCS scenario looks a lot more likely than discreet supercells, at least in central/eastern OK. Then the threat of serious flash flooding is a real possibility which is much more dangerous than tornadoes as it affects way more people. Rivers are also running high so any more inflow could cause issues there as well.

I think the flooding potential is becoming a major player in today's storm situation. If anyone lives near an area that is prone to flooding, be aware that moisture potential and existing saturated ground exacerbate that risk. Rainfall amounts are projecting in some areas to be as high as 5"+ in the span of just a few hours.

[SoonerDave]

Anon, are you going to be in a position to do any live chatting or similar coverage today? Might post the URL for any newcomers as the day progresses.

[therondo]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

[jn1780]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Lines and map colors don't determine what will happen, but for what its worth. OKC metro is now in high risk zone.

Morning northern storms were not as intense as expected.

[Teo9969]

2 questions: Are we looking at the historical start well off to the SW of Metro and move toward the metro from there?

If that SW>NE pattern can be expected, what's the Hobart >Tuttle>Mustang>SWOKC>Downtown timeline look like?

[jn1780]

2 questions: Are we looking at the historical start well off to the SW of Metro and move toward the metro from there?

If that SW>NE pattern can be expected, what's the Hobart >Tuttle>Mustang>SWOKC>Downtown timeline look like?

I think that's a difficult question because elevated stuff way out to the east of dryline could become surfaced based. NWS has timing anywhere from 10:00 am onwards.

Small showers right now are firing off warm front that is quickly surging north.

[Martin]

i think many people are staying home today... traffic was significantly lighter on the interstates this morning.

[Anonymous.]

I am currently out of town in a bad place data-wise. So of course this is the first High Risk day in over 2 years.

Morning convection blasting off now. So we should see destabilization taking place as we head into the afternoon. Short-Range models do not paint a fun scene. Looking like we will see supercells develop out ahead of the dryline in addition to storms actually on the dryline.

[bchris02]

Terminology like "life-altering, catastrophic tornadoes" is being thrown out.

This does look like an absolute worst-case scenario for OKC.

[jn1780]

Worst-case scenario would be for an event to actually verify and happen. No point in scaring people when their already scared. Today has everyone's attention.

[jonny d]

Mother Nature hates Oklahoma.

In all seriousness, stay weather aware, people. Don't let the hyperbole drive you insane, as it won't help. Just be respectful of the weather, and stay up to date.

[jedicurt]

Terminology like "life-altering, catastrophic tornadoes" is being thrown out.

This does look like an absolute worst-case scenario for OKC.

even if it were only an EF1, if it directly hits your home... it would be "life-altering, and catastrophic", for the person whose home was hit...

and this is why phrases like this have no basis in a scientific dissuasion of weather forecasting, and should not be used, as they are only there to incite fear.

[Panteress]

even if it were only an EF1, if it directly hits your home... it would be "life-altering, and catastrophic", for the person whose home was hit...

and this is why phrases like this have no basis in a scientific dissuasion of weather forecasting, and should not be used, as they are only there to incite fear.

I wonder if people who use such inflammatory terms have actually experienced a hit: my family has. "Life-altering".....hmmm....maybe for a time, but we re-built. "Catastrophic"......this word is like the word "epic" for me. It's lost some of it's depth and awe in the keyboard warrior age. You are absolutely right: these phrases are only there to incite fear.

[LocoAko]

Terminology like "life-altering, catastrophic tornadoes" is being thrown out.

This does look like an absolute worst-case scenario for OKC.

It is a very serious situation for sure, as we're in High Risks both for flooding and severe weather, but just wait and see what happens. I highly recommend following the NWS/SPC on this rather than chasers. Speaking as someone who has occasionally chased over the past couple years, many chasers (esp. amateur ones) are very prone to hype and over-"excitement". They want to see stuff. Don't trust them over professionals.

[chuck5815]

We on that Threat Level Midnight, bros.

[jn1780]

The event is about an hour or two from getting started in the Texas Panhandle.

[emounger]

Is the chat still up and usable? If so, can someone post the address. I thought I had it book marked but I can't find it. Thanks!

[tyeomans]

What kind of timeline are we looking at for OKC? Trying to gauge when I need to start heading home from work!

[BG918]

curious how the cloudiness will affect storm growth, it hasn't started to clear out yet

[jn1780]

What kind of timeline are we looking at for OKC? Trying to gauge when I need to start heading home from work!

I would aim to get home by 2. 3 at the latest.

Latest thinking is 2 to 3pm for storms to form.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0699.html

[jn1780]

curious how the cloudiness will affect storm growth, it hasn't started to clear out yet

See mesocale discussion I just posted. Things are already starting to bubble. Warm wet air is flooding in from the south. Already dewpoints in mid 60s up past I-40.

[BG918]

See mesocale discussion I just posted. Things are already starting to bubble. Warm wet air is flooding in from the south. Already dewpoints in mid 60s up past I-40.

Interesting it mentions the possibility of this being a PDS

[baralheia]

Interesting it mentions the possibility of this being a PDS

When the watch is issued, it will very likely be issued as a PDS. NWS forecasters have been using strong terms to describe the severe weather threat for today.

[SoonerDave]

When the watch is issued, it will very likely be issued as a PDS. NWS forecasters have been using strong terms to describe the severe weather threat for today.

SPC release indicates a PDS watch will be issued between 1-2pm due to very early stages of development in southern Oklahoma.

[Bunty]

I think the flooding potential is becoming a major player in today's storm situation. If anyone lives near an area that is prone to flooding, be aware that moisture potential and existing saturated ground exacerbate that risk. Rainfall amounts are projecting in some areas to be as high as 5"+ in the span of just a few hours.

Yep, Stillwater is still in the running to get the most rain in the state by late Tuesday. So far around 1.50" has fallen, according to Mesonet.