General Weather Discussion - May 2019

[Easy180]

SPC has 15% probabilities indicated on both Friday and Saturday. Friday is panhandle into western OK (possible MCS coming into C OK late). Saturday is the same, but pushed further east.

At this time, both days appear to be dryline supercells developing that may eventually turn into squall lines and push off to the east.


Also looking past this weekend, it appears there is potentially additional severe weather setups mid-week.

Craft beer fest Sat night. Should I be rooting for Saturday morning storms to help my odds of being drunk by 9PM?

[jn1780]

Looks like it will be getting busy starting Friday. SPC had several days outlined this morning.

[SEMIweather]

This has the potential to be our most active severe weather period in years.

[jn1780]

This has the potential to be our most active severe weather period in years.

More active than past two years at the very least. Its hard to take a forecast seriously 6 days out, but Monday and Tuesday look especially big. Still need to get past Friday and Saturday first though.

[Anonymous.]

SPC has added a 30% probability on Day 4 (TX PH and far W OK). This will likely show up as moderate risk in the initial 3-day batch that we will see tomorrow.

SPC is also outlining 15% probabilities now for the following week that I mentioned yesterday. There is two distinct days of sharp dryline showing up consistently. SPC placing 15% risks on the 7 and 8 day outlooks is relatively rare. Confidence is decent a week out from the event.

[bchris02]

Craft beer fest Sat night. Should I be rooting for Saturday morning storms to help my odds of being drunk by 9PM?

I wouldn't really make any plans for Saturday evening at this point in time. This has high potential to be one of "those" days for OKC. Next Tuesday as well.

[jn1780]

I wouldn't really make any plans for Saturday evening at this point in time. This has high potential to be one of "those" days for OKC. Next Tuesday as well.

I don't think anyone has to cancel plans. Just stay weather aware and get indoors when you need to.

[FighttheGoodFight]

I don't think anyone has to cancel plans. Just stay weather aware and get indoors when you need to.

Ya I am just parking in a parking garage. No changing plans other than that.

[jn1780]

Hard to gauge tornado threat this far out. but, you can bet the flooding risk is high with all this rain we have been receiving this year.

[John1744]

The stormchasers discord hasn't been this excited in years. To me that's usually a bad sign for weather lol.

[bchris02]

The stormchasers discord hasn't been this excited in years. To me that's usually a bad sign for weather lol.

And the dryline looks to be setting up in just the right place...from around El Reno down to Chickasha. Farther west and it's usually a squall line or MCS by the time it gets here and farther east means most of the severe is east of I-35. We can't know for sure until around the 48 hour window (or maybe even the day of) but this could end up being a very classic PDS setup for OKC.

[jn1780]

The stormchasers discord hasn't been this excited in years. To me that's usually a bad sign for weather lol.

Or when Rick Smith from NWS starts quoting twister.
https://twitter.com/ounwcm/status/1128271452376113153


To be clear though to those who don't know, stormchasers are excited by the number of consecutive days in a row that they will get to chase which increases their chances. Not that one day in particular will be exceptionally bad, although we could get one of those days with this series of storms.

Edit: Looking at a forecast sounding for Monday would seem to apply that will be a TDS day. Again, way out in the future.

[kukblue1]

New Kids on the Block mixtape tour Saturday night. Damn right I'll be there.

[okatty]

New Kids on the Block mixtape tour Saturday night. Damn right I'll be there.

I think I’ll watch the tornado coverage

[kukblue1]

I think I’ll watch the tornado coverage

Dry line looks through the Metro by 7 so maybe east of OKC. Plus storms in the Morning. Looks messy for Saturday still. Monday is the day.

[jn1780]

Dry line looks through the Metro by 7 so maybe east of OKC. Plus storms in the Morning. Looks messy for Saturday still. Monday is the day.

It doesn't look like the "historic" week like it did yesterday. Still active, but not a slam dunk like people were talking about yesterday.

[jonny d]

Awe, darn. We waited a day, and everything changed. I am kinda glad, since I move into my new house this coming week.

[Easy180]

Glad to hear my all you can drink craft beer odds are looking better for Saturday night.

[kukblue1]

It doesn't look like the "historic" week like it did yesterday. Still active, but not a slam dunk like people were talking about yesterday.

Yep Now we are getting into the IF stage. IF storms can fire on Friday. IF Storms don't linger too long Saturday morning. IF IF IF. It was mass Panic on Tuesday. Now Wednesday we are at the IF stage and everyone seems to be backing off some

[kukblue1]

Now we have gone from Doom and Gloom on Tuesday to If's on Wednesday to well the timing isn't right on Thursday and thing might not line up. I would imagine tomorrow we will be at the storm was weaker or moved a different direction.

[Bunty]

It's projected to be a big rain event for the state from Fri. to Tues. with Stillwater taking the most. I'll believe the hype when I see it.

[Bunty]

May 23-29 doesn't look cool and dry.

[OKC Guy]

Now we have gone from Doom and Gloom on Tuesday to If's on Wednesday to well the timing isn't right on Thursday and thing might not line up. I would imagine tomorrow we will be at the storm was weaker or moved a different direction.

Grocery stores will be disappointed, they need more end of days type forecasts lol. I always wondered if weathermen and grocery stores worked in tandem. I imagine the discussion goes like this: “If you push higher snow fall or big bad tornadoes we’ll give you 20% take of the increased sales”

[kukblue1]

Grocery stores will be disappointed, they need more end of days type forecasts lol. I always wondered if weathermen and grocery stores worked in tandem. I imagine the discussion goes like this: “If you push higher snow fall or big bad tornadoes we’ll give you 20% take of the increased sales”

Not sure I'm going out to by groceries before a tornado just to have the tornado wipe them away. But yeah maybe a generator for a big thunderstorm. Looks like Friday the CAP holds

[Anonymous.]

Friday looks like event zone will be extreme W OK. Saturday looks like still a good shot at storms from SW to C OK. This may be a giant MCD coming up out of NW TX.

Monday SPC has moved to a 30% probability inside the original 15. This does include a large swath from C OK into NW TX.

Looks like maybe some action still around Wednesday too.