OKC Losing Population?

[Pete]

It's data from Linkedin, which means they monitor people who are registered on that site and changes to their city.

I suspect this could be to the downturn in O&G as most those people are on Linkedin.

But of course the huge majority of people working in OKC are not on that site at all.

[Mike_M]

I think everyone just needs to pump the brakes here. People tend to overreact on these boards . We love to be outraged by things.

A Tulsa publication saying OKC is losing population? Color me shocked. It uses very specificly defined data to get to this result. I wonder if OKC is also losing population of left handed people who play guitar right handed.

OK's economy has run counter to the rest of the country for decades now. When the rest of the nation's economy is down, ours tends to be up and vice versa. No surprise there.

And we do care about education. Every time we vote for something that is supposed to be spent on education or teacher pay, it always gets consumed by administration and doesn't filter down to the actual teachers in the classroom. We need to go about this in a different manner. I don't know what the solution is but we can't keep voting and doing the same thing and expect different results. We need to figure out a foolproof way to get a pay raise to the teachers in the classrooms and not the administration. In fact, quite a bit of administration could probably be weeded out.

I don't think everything is hunky dory, magic and rainbows in OK. But I also don't believe the sky is falling either.

I don't think we should wait for the sky to fall before we make changes.

Cost of living is really cool if you have a lot of options. If you're young without kids, or older with self sufficient kids, this is a great place for you. There's enough to occupy you most of the year, and you save a ton of money to travel across the country (or world) and enjoy whatever adventure you pick.

The issue is, that huge millenial demographic that the MAPS projects kept in town, is getting older and having kids. I think you're going to see Oklahoma's education system and incompetent legislation under the same microscope that our nightlife was under 10 years ago.

[cinnamonjock]

How does Oklahoma City's public schools compare to those of other major cities nearby? I always hear about people moving to the suburbs for the schools and wonder if the schools inside the city are really that bad and if they are like that througout the country.

[Bunty]

When do the next census estimates come out, so we can really know if there is genuine cause for concern?

[KayneMo]

When do the next census estimates come out, so we can really know if there is genuine cause for concern?

I believe May 2018.

[turnpup]

I wonder if OKC is also losing population of left handed people who play guitar right handed.

I'm left-handed but play golf right handed, and I'm staying here in OKC. Does that count?

[traxx]

FWIW, Tulsa World wasn't the one who did the study -- it was LinkedIn -- and they reported all of the cities on the list (headline given to OKC for obvious reasons). You can come up with flaws in the methodology, but let's not turn this into thinking it's a hit piece on OKC just because it was a Tulsa-based source.

Yeah, I can read. I know who did the study. And it's something that probably wouldn't have gotten any press but a Tulsa newspaper saw that they could take a dig at OKC. That was my point. And like I said, the parameters are so specific as to nearly have no value. If you define a parameter specificly enough, you can make numbers do anything you want.

[traxx]

I'm left-handed but play golf right handed, and I'm staying here in OKC. Does that count?

Absolutely. Let's get the DOK to write an article about that.

[Hondo1]

I don't discredit the article just because it comes from the Tulsa World. We would be cheering if it had said OKC was gaining population. Last Thursday around rush hour I was driving downtown; something I rarely have a need to do. There was a lot of congestion - a lot of people, a lot of cars, a lot of robust activity. Not what I expected from a CBD whose vacancy rate is near 20%. So, I was bolstered by the experience of near gridlock. But I have to say I’m not surprised by the subject of the article. For some time, I've felt the city is either stagnating or losing population as there just aren't as many commuters. I don't have hard figures but I know what I see and experience on a daily basis and in spite of a multitude of construction projects around the city and the vibe of The Plaza District, Midtown, Paseo, etc. I see less people, less traffic congestion and generally less vitality compared to three or four years ago, although the CBD may be an exception because of its density. One thing's for sure. As the losses are most certainly attributable to oil and gas, we're in a world of future hurt unless something is done to diversify our economy fast, because renewable energy is not going away and it just keeps getting better and better. FWIW, I just read where Nashville is gaining a hundred new residents a day. Didn’t say who was doing the tracking but I would think we would be able to track similar patterns - either losses or gains. Maybe utility registrations / cutoffs?

[bchris02]

I don't discredit the article just because it comes from the Tulsa World. We would be cheering if it had said OKC was gaining population. Last Thursday around rush hour I was driving downtown; something I rarely have a need to do. There was a lot of congestion - a lot of people, a lot of cars, a lot of robust activity. Not what I expected from a CBD whose vacancy rate is near 20%. So, I was bolstered by the experience of near gridlock. But I have to say I’m not surprised by the subject of the article. For some time, I've felt the city is either stagnating or losing population as there just aren't as many commuters. I don't have hard figures but I know what I see and experience on a daily basis and in spite of a multitude of construction projects around the city and the vibe of The Plaza District, Midtown, Paseo, etc. I see less people, less traffic congestion and generally less vitality compared to three or four years ago, although the CBD may be an exception because of its density. One thing's for sure. As the losses are most certainly attributable to oil and gas, we're in a world of future hurt unless something is done to diversify our economy fast, because renewable energy is not going away and it just keeps getting better and better. FWIW, I just read where Nashville is gaining a hundred new residents a day. Didn’t say who was doing the tracking but I would think we would be able to track similar patterns - either losses or gains. Maybe utility registrations / cutoffs?

I strongly disagree with what I bolded. In my opinion, Oklahoma City has come a long way compared to 3-4 years ago and feels a lot more vibrant now. When I came back here in 2012, Bricktown was pretty much the only legitimate nightlife district. The Plaza was pretty much just Saint's. Midtown was pretty much just McNellie's. There was nothing in Film Row. The Paseo was similar today but it still had a somewhat sketchy element to it that is absent today. With that said, I will agree that it seems like momentum has really slowed down recently in terms of new projects being announced.

[Plutonic Panda]

Yeah from my experience driving from Edmond to DTOKC traffic is worse than it’s ever been. Last month it took me an hour and a half during rush hour to get there. It’s neber taken me more than 30 mins before.

[stile99]

Well, to be fair, attempting to gauge population based on traffic would be about as accurate as attempting to gauge it by locations listed in the profile of users on one website.

[Plutonic Panda]

True!

[traxx]

Well, to be fair, attempting to gauge population based on traffic would be about as accurate as attempting to gauge it by locations listed in the profile of users on one website.

This

[stlokc]

OKC is not losing population.

On another note, I found this list to be very interesting and certainly encouraging:

http://www.demographia.com/db-metroage.pdf

[HOT ROD]

OKC in the top 10 youngest age cities, from #18 in 2010. very impressive

[stlokc]

Yes. But the more impressive stat to me is that we are aging slower than any other city. Hard to believe but I’ll take it!

[G.Walker]

This is obviously a Tulsa World move to show some negativity to OKC. I mean who writes an article & site LinkedIn? lol

Just because they changed cities in LinkedIn, doesn't hold merit. 37 out of 10,000 is not bad, lol.

Population growth for a decade has never been linear, it will go up and down. We are on pace to have good growth this decade, not worried.

[G.Walker]

OKC is not losing population.

On another note, I found this list to be very interesting and certainly encouraging:

http://www.demographia.com/db-metroage.pdf

I find it more interesting that pretty much every cities median population is in the mid 30's. That is weird, I wonder why that is?

[pw405]

It's data from Linkedin, which means they monitor people who are registered on that site and changes to their city.

I suspect this could be to the downturn in O&G as most those people are on Linkedin.

But of course the huge majority of people working in OKC are not on that site at all.

I tend to agree. I started in the O&G industry back in 2013. Many stories I heard from people who worked on drilling rigs were: "hell, over the past few years I would just quit if I didn't like the boss. Make a few calls and have a new job by the time I got home". I worked with people from all over the world. Large scale layoffs have largely subsided today, but over the last year or so, I know of at least 5 people who opted to leave the industry and state all together as they were fearful they would be next to get laid off. I've even considered leaving the state if I lost my job and couldn't find a somewhat similar salary here. I would have never considered leaving a few years ago. I've ultimately decided to just hang on in the OG industry and go down with the ship if that's what happens. An industry downturn like OG has experienced has a funny way of making people fearful. I've been preparing to lose my job (in terms of spending habits) for almost 3 years now. I don't have to worry about kids, wife, car payments, or a McMansion payment I couldn't afford if I lost my job (I have a mortgage, but one I can afford on the salary I was earning before entering the industry). For many that moved here from out of state and took a high paying job in the OG industry and bought a lifestyle that assumed the salary would last forever, you can bet that they are likely moving back now that the national economy is so much brighter.

[HOT ROD]

that was my thought also G.Walker, particularly since they failed to mention Tulsa was not even on the list or hold a proper context of the Linked-In article itself (as in theres a drop in members on LI who state their residence as OKC) or that 'apparently' OKC must have had growth in LI members until now.

That or similar approach would have been a more balanced way to do 'report' the finding even if the hidden intent was a dig, but the way the World article was written was surely a dig at OKC's 20+ year renaissance and recent popularity.

[SSEiYah]

The real estate market in certain suburban areas of NW OKC and Edmond seems to have cooled off quite a bit this year at least with used homes in the 250-300k range. They are sitting on the market quite a bit longer than say in 2015 when I started casually looking for a larger home. I have one I'm watching currently which has had a 50K worth of price reductions over the last 6 months and is now 30K below tax accessed value. It seems like a deal but I'm going to wait to see if they do another reduction. I've seen a few others sell for 10-15% below tax accessed value over the past 6 months which was not the case say in 2014/2015.

[Teo9969]

There is 0% chase that Oklahoma City, or just about any other Top 50 city in the country is *losing* population.

I can agree to an extent that Oklahoma City has seen a slow down since those 2013/14 days when it seemed like every week exciting new announcements were being made all over the city, and people seemed to have more of a fervor for OKC than there is at this very current juncture...

But the reality is that this is an Oil & Gas State and the 2014/15 crash has taken an unreal toll on the state and OKC is in no way immune to that. The fact that OKC didn't buckle but continued to push forward and see progress within the economy and culture is a cause for rejoicing among OKC residents. If oil does not take another 9 to 18 month turn for the worse (under $45) in the next 5 years, the only real thing that will be a thorn in the side to OKC's continued Renaissance is if the fools at 23rd and Lincoln continue to mortgage the future in favor of political posturing.

To that end, we can only hope that people in Oklahoma begin to take their local politics seriously and begin to consider the full scope of their actions.

It may not be the star child it was 5 years ago, but it's doing great in the midst of a challenge that has, in the past, immediately sent us on 10-15 year death spiral.

[dcsooner]

Diversify or stagnate

[pw405]

There is 0% chase that Oklahoma City, or just about any other Top 50 city in the country is *losing* population.

I can agree to an extent that Oklahoma City has seen a slow down since those 2013/14 days when it seemed like every week exciting new announcements were being made all over the city, and people seemed to have more of a fervor for OKC than there is at this very current juncture...

But the reality is that this is an Oil & Gas State and the 2014/15 crash has taken an unreal toll on the state and OKC is in no way immune to that. The fact that OKC didn't buckle but continued to push forward and see progress within the economy and culture is a cause for rejoicing among OKC residents. If oil does not take another 9 to 18 month turn for the worse (under $45) in the next 5 years, the only real thing that will be a thorn in the side to OKC's continued Renaissance is if the fools at 23rd and Lincoln continue to mortgage the future in favor of political posturing.

To that end, we can only hope that people in Oklahoma begin to take their local politics seriously and begin to consider the full scope of their actions.

It may not be the star child it was 5 years ago, but it's doing great in the midst of a challenge that has, in the past, immediately sent us on 10-15 year death spiral.

Very well said, Teo. Especially considering the part that while OKC has certainly pulled back from the fever pitch of 4-5 years ago, the city has finally proven that it can continue to grow even during a once in a generation energy crash. Back when the commodity price crash started happening, I had a theory that it may actually cause some people to move to OKC who were formerly living in surrounding rural areas. An example being a lease operator or field office employee of the energy industry who decides to seek other employment opportunities in capitol city instead of looking for work in Kingfisher, Alva, Enid, etc. I don't have any data to confirm this theory, but it certainly isn't out of the realm of possibility.