General Weather Discussion - May 2019

[Anonymous.]

Storms are redeveloping now. If they can get established before full sundown, they could make a run at the metro.

[Anonymous.]

Supercells lining up now from Chickasha back into NW TX.

Chat has spots left if anyone wants to join.

https://chatroll.com/embed/chat/wxst...tuff-live-chat

[Anonymous.]

Storms can’t overcome the shear high up in the atmosphere. Look to see them die out with sundown.

[BG918]

What needs to really happen is for no more rain in the Kaw and Keystone lake basins. Even at 215,000 cfs both are still taking in more water than they are letting out. Keystone is taking in 250,000 cfs right now.

The catastrophic 1986 flood in Tulsa peaked at Keystone releasing 307,000 cfs.

The City of Tulsa is now preparing for the worst case scenario which is a 300,000 cfs release. This will affect a lot of people in the Tulsa area and downstream, and could end up being one of the costliest disasters in the state's history when it's all over.

[C_M_25]

Serious situation developing along the Arkansas River near Webber’s Falls. Two large barges broke loose near Muskogee and are drifting downstream towards lock and dam 16 up river from Webber’s Falls. No tug boats available to wrangle the loose barges. If these impact that dam and damage it, Webber’s Falls could be in serious trouble.

[BB37]

Channel 9 sent out a flash that the I-40 bridge over the Arkansas River has been closed.

[d-usa]

Tracking the different sets of storms coming into the metro was weird. Looked at the radar and there were three back-to-back storms past Lawton making their way into the city, and 30 minutes later there was nothing.

Compared to Monday, today felt like one of those dangerous days when I stepped outside.

[jn1780]

I think at this point going forward. Any kind of rain threat in the immediate forecast is probably more concerning than a tornado threat.

[jn1780]

Tracking the different sets of storms coming into the metro was weird. Looked at the radar and there were three back-to-back storms past Lawton making their way into the city, and 30 minutes later there was nothing.

Compared to Monday, today felt like one of those dangerous days when I stepped outside.

Just goes to show how small changes in the atmosphere can make a big difference. The more favorable upper air conditions were not that far away from the storms that died off. Good to see that SPC's original slight or marginal risk for southern sides of metro mostly verified.

[TheTravellers]

Just goes to show how small changes in the atmosphere can make a big difference. ...

Known as the butterfly effect, I read about it in Chaos by James Gleick about 30 years ago (but it's been around way longer than that).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Butterfly_effect

[OKC Guy]

Serious situation developing along the Arkansas River near Webber’s Falls. Two large barges broke loose near Muskogee and are drifting downstream towards lock and dam 16 up river from Webber’s Falls. No tug boats available to wrangle the loose barges. If these impact that dam and damage it, Webber’s Falls could be in serious trouble.

These barges are hung up on rocks 2 miles from dam.

Options in my opinion:

Helo someone to drop in and lay explosives

Send the Batfish to torpedo

Lay many rope nets across the river

Hopefully they can get a tug out and push them back. It was looking dicey late last night they lost them in the dark and had no helo other than medical to search

[Anonymous.]

Should be quiet across C OK today. Far W OK could see more storms later. And then again tomorrow we could see storms across W and *maybe* they sneak into C OK before dying.

Could see more severe weather out W on Sunday. SPC outlining 15% probability for main body of OK on Tuesday.

[OKC Guy]

The barges hit dam and sank/got sucked under water. Dam held. I-40 still closed I guess ti figure out if dam is safe. If dam breaks all that water goes rushing to 40.

[jn1780]

The barges hit dam and sank/got sucked under water. Dam held. I-40 still closed I guess ti figure out if dam is safe. If dam breaks all that water goes rushing to 40.

I guess dam was designed to hold pack millions of pounds of rushing water. They looked like pieces of driftwood compared to dam.
https://kfor.com/2019/05/23/watch-tw...webbers-falls/

[OkieHornet]

Speaking of the USS Batfish submarine in Muskogee, it's now floating again with all the flooding:
https://www.thedrive.com/news/28167/...ime-in-decades

[Ian Drake]

Can’t wait till June 1st when all of this storm chance crap will be done. What is taking so long for summer to get here?

[Anonymous.]

Looking long-range. Models show stormy pattern continuing into first week of June. Maybe some northwest-flow type of storms coming with MCSes out of CO/KS.

[d-usa]

I know our patterns change quickly, but are we looking somewhat safe from drought patterns this year?

[Ian Drake]

So the tornado threat is essentially over for the year now? Doesn’t seem to be any chatter anywhere. So glad Mon was a big bust but am miffed about all the hype surrounding it. Can do without that from now on.

[d-usa]

Monday had multiple tornadoes, many storms, and flooding that continues to impact the state. Weird “bust”.

[Ian Drake]

But it wasn’t historic by any means either like many were saying. I am just glad storm season is essentially over. Bring on summer.

[gopokes88]

Yikes

https://twitter.com/themahler/status...711652864?s=20

[Bobby821]

Severe storm season is far far from being over folks!!

[jn1780]

I know our patterns change quickly, but are we looking somewhat safe from drought patterns this year?

At least going into this summer were good.

[Ian Drake]

I am sure storm season is over. The clouds cleared out tonight, and each day only has a 20 % chance of storms. Tue only has a slight chance. If the biggest severe threat day of the year didn't produce, and everything here on out is less than a quarter chance of anything, that points to severe weather season being over or at least on the downswing. And good riddance to it I might say.